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One of every seven catches being a touchdown will be difficult for Addison to maintain this year. Over an admittedly tiny two-game sample size, though, he’s so far remained a reliable red zone threat (2 games played, 8 targets, 6 catches, 107 yards, 1 TD).
With Jets CB Sauce Gardner as capable as anyone of at least limiting Jefferson, Darnold should be looking Addison’s way in the red zone today, making him a worthy play, especially at nearly 3-to-1 odds over at FD.
Jordan Addison Anytime TD (+290): 0.5 Units
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET
This one is more than a bit obvious, but at -180 at DraftKings, there’s value taking Henry, who is listed at -200 at both FanDuel and bet365.
With five touchdowns in four games this season, Henry, who has never been a stranger to the end zone at any point in his career, is still rolling at age 30. The potential upside for the Baltimore offense with Henry alongside the best running QB in the league has come to fruition since the first drive of the Ravens’ season, when Henry capped an 11-play drive with a 5-yard TD run up the gut against Kansas City.
Henry has gone from effective in Weeks 1-2 (31 carries for 130 yards and 2 TDs) to dominant in Weeks 3-4 as Baltimore’s O-line has improved after a rough start to the year.
The last two weeks, against Dallas and Buffalo, Henry has bullied two perennial playoff teams, with 49 carries for over 7 yards per carry and three TDs.
Now, in Week 5, he faces a Bengals front seven that struggled mightily in three of four games this year. Cincy has already allowed the following performances, and Pacheco didn’t even finish the Week 2 Bengals-Chiefs game due to an injury
Against a better back in Week 5, can the Bengals really keep Henry in check and/or out of the end zone?
We don’t think so.
Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-180): 1 Unit
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET
James Cook and the Bills as a whole endured a brutal night in Week 4 in a blowout loss to Baltimore on Sunday Night Football.
But Cook, who had four total touchdowns (three rushing TDs and one receiving) in Weeks 2-3, is worth trusting against Houston on Sunday. There are signs he is going to be the guy Buffalo features in the low red zone, as Josh Allen’s heavy workload as his team’s biggest rushing threat near the goal line has changed in recent weeks.
Allen finished 2023 with rushing TDs nearly every game down the stretch, and he had two more against Arizona in his team’s 2024 season opener, but has not had a rushing TD since.
In fact, after carrying the ball nine times total in Week 1, Allen has just 13 carries combined the last three weeks. As long as Cook continues to prove reliable — on the year, he’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 11.8 yards per catch — it would only make sense for Allen, who suffered a hand injury in Week 1, to be less involved in the Bills’ short-yardage running game.
It also helps Cook’s case that the Texans defense has looked vulnerable against the run this year. Last week, Houston allowed 158 yards on 24 carries to Jacksonville. On the season, Houston is allowing 4.7 yards per carry, which means running lanes will likely be available for Cook in what is expected — based on the over/under of 47.5 — to be a close game with plenty of scoring opportunities for both teams.
James Cook Anytime TD (+110): 1 Unit
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