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While Henry has not had a great start to the season, that has to do more with the Ravens starting 0-2 and facing two tough run defenses in the Chiefs and Raiders. That is absolutely not the case this week.
The good news, however, is that even as the Baltimore running game has struggled in general, Henry has still managed to score a touchdown in both games. He is 17th in the league in total rushing yards, but he has the two touchdowns and is still getting the majority of the work close to the end zone.
The Ravens have only run two plays inside the opponent’s 5-yard line, but Henry has gotten both of those attempts. He has also received four of the five Ravens’ carries inside the 10, so he should be able to score in a plus matchup this week.
Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-130): 1 Unit
Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Lions currently have the best rush grade in the NFL, according to Fantasy Points, with the seventh-highest adjusted rushing yards before first contact. This stat takes out QB scrambles, kneels, trick plays, WR runs, any of that stuff, and just measures yards before first contact, and the Lions are the seventh-best in the NFL by this metric.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have the second-worst defensive adjusted yards before first contact in the NFL. Due of the time split between Montgomery and Gibbs, it is hard to know which RB is going to run for more yards, but in terms of a touchdown, the angle for Montgomery is a better one.
Even as Gibbs ascends, Montgomery has still gotten the majority of the work when the Lions get close to the end zone. Montgomery is tied with four other RBs with the second-most running back carries inside the 10-yard line (5) this season, and no back has gotten more than six.
Gibbs, meanwhile, has three carries inside the 5. Montgomery is still the short yardage guy for the Lions, and in this plus matchup, he should be able to rumble into the end zone.
David Montgomery Anytime TD (-105): 1 Unit
Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET
The odds on this play have a wild variance, with Bet365 offering the best price at +130, followed by DK at +115, then every other book at +100 or below. Caesars is at +100, and then FD is at an absolutely wild price of -140, as is Fanatics.
The expectation here is that Pollard is going to get a lot of work and that he is going to have success with that work in this game. Heading into the year, the concern with Pollard was that he was going to be in a 50/50 split with Tyjae Spears, but that has not been the case.
Pollard has gotten 65 percent of the Titans’ RB snaps and 61 percent of the rushing attempts, which is the 11th-most in the NFL. He has also gotten the fourth-most RB targets in the NFL, tied with Bijan Robinson with 10.
He has 33 rush attempts, which is the 10th-most in the NFL, and, more importantly, he gets most of the red zone work. Granted, the Titans have not run a ton of plays in the opposing team’s red zone, but all the RB work inside the 20 has gone to Pollard. He has gotten three of the four red zone carries, as well as Tennessee’s only RB target.
The guess here is that the Titans are going to have success running the ball against the Packers. Even though Jonathan Taylor did not score last week, he still rushed for over 100 yards on only 12 carries.
The Packers currently have the 24th-ranked rush defense, according to DVOA, while PFF ranks it 27th. They’ve allowed the sixth-highest yards per carry and the second-highest percentage of rushing attempts that have gone for 15-plus yards.
Tony Pollard Anytime TD (+130): 1 Unit
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