The 2024 NFL season has seen a plethora of underdogs not just cover but win, but things have started to even out a bit as we approach the one-third mark of the regular season. If you’re still competing in your survivor pools — or if you’re in a two-strike contest or simply started fresh — we have the data you’ll need to make a solid Week 6 pick.
The Sporting News has been running with affiliate partner PoolGenius all season to help you make informed survivor pool decisions. Every week, this column highlights the teams that rank as the week’s most popular picks and teams with the highest win probability.
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PoolGenius is a sports data site living under the TeamRankings umbrella. Its mission: to provide you with the statistical information you need to succeed as bettors, fantasy players, and pool entrants.
Today, like we do every Friday, we’re going to the grid. Each week, PG updates its NFL Survivor Data Grid. It ranks every team scheduled for the week based on PG odds (win probability), pick popularity, and more.
This info — as well as the NFL Survivor Season Planner — are invaluable resources for serious survivor contestants looking to map out a season-long strategy.
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Let’s get to the NFL survivor picks grid for Week 6 of the 2024 regular season, highlighting the teams with the best PoolGenius odds as well as the most popular picks of the week.
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All odds and data courtesy of PoolGenius.
| Team | PG odds | Popularity |
| Eagles vs. Browns | 78% | 35% |
| Ravens vs. Commanders | 72% | 4% |
| Texans at Patriots | 71% | 19% |
| Packers vs. Cardinals | 69% | 7% |
| Falcons at Panthers | 67% | 19% |
| 49ers at Seahawks (W) | 65% | 1% |
| Bengals at Giants | 64% | 3% |
| Bucs at Saints | 64% | 3% |
| Titans vs. Colts | 61% | 0% |
| Lions at Cowboys | 60% | 1% |
| Steelers at Raiders | 58% | 2% |
| Chargers at Broncos | 58% | 0% |
| Bills at Jets | 55% | 1% |
| Jaguars vs. Bears (N) | 52% | 0% |
| Bears vs. Jaguars (N) | 48% | 2% |
| Jets vs. Bills | 45% | 0% |
| Broncos vs. Chargers | 42% | 0% |
| Raiders vs. Steelers | 42% | 0% |
| Cowboys vs. Lions | 40% | 0% |
| Colts at Titans | 39% | 0% |
| Saints vs. Bucs | 36% | 0% |
| Giants vs. Bengals | 36% | 0% |
| Seahawks vs. 49ers | 36% | 0% |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | 33% | 0% |
| Cardinals at Packers | 31% | 0% |
| Patriots vs. Texans | 29% | 0% |
| Commanders at Ravens | 28% | 0% |
| Browns at Eagles | 22% | 0% |
Three teams serve as the overwhelmingly popular picks for Week 6. Coming off a bye week at home versus the lowly Browns, the Eagles have been picked in over one-third of all remaining survivor pools. Two road teams — the Texans at Patriots and Falcons at Panthers — have been picked in nearly 20 percent of pools each.
Only two teams outside that big three have been picked in over three percent of pools: the Packers (vs. Cardinals) and Ravens (vs. Commanders). And while neither of those two picks are as strong a favorite as Philly versus Deshaun Watson’s Browns, each might be more optimal than the Texans and Falcons.
Jordan Love has started to click for Green Bay, and the Packers defense at Lambeau will be a tough out for a young Cardinals team. Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson also seems like a great bet against Rookie of the Year frontrunner an early MVP candidate Jayden Daniels.
Baltimore just survived a barnburner against the Bengals — the Ravens are on a different stratosphere than the young, fun Commanders. Who on Washington stops Derrick Henry? Who covers Zay Flowers downfield? How does Dan Quinn’s squad survive a road game against an LJax/King Henry RPO scheme?
Other options also exist if you don’t have the Eagles, Packers, or Ravens available. Of the teams yet to play this week, every squad in the bottom-half of the PoolGenius top 10 win probabilities makes for a solid choice. Let’s take a look, and briefly explain why all five are worth consideration:
It’s a buffet of strong options, so hopefully you feel confident with the one you lock in ahead of Sunday’s slate. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy Week 6 of the NFL season. Cheers to staying alive and moving one step closer to your contest’s jackpot!
One of PoolGenius’s great features is that for every survivor pool you enter, you can customize league settings — pool size, number of personal entries, etc. — to fully optimize your picks to win.
Every pool is different — so naturally, strategy can change from pool to pool, even within the same week. Some pools even allow you to join midway through the season, so be sure to check out each one.
The big kahuna of the free NFL survivor contest market, DraftKings already has nearly 600,000 entrants in its $1 Million Pro Football Survivor contest. Talk about a game-changing sum of money! As the pool is so high and the number of contestants is so massive, DraftKings made the wise decision to only allow one entry per user.
Another massive contest that should finish with an insane number of entrants, CBS Sports Football Pick’em features a $100,000 jackpot. The margin for error, like with DraftKings, will be very low considering it’s a single-elimination format with a max of one entry per user. But that grand prize, though!
One of the whoppers of the free survivor contest landscape, ESPN’s Eliminator Challenge has a grand prize five times larger than the majority of its competitors. And that’s not all — you can also create up to 25 entries! Talk about a guaranteed traffic driver! The only downside is that your odds of winning will be very low considering the sheer volume this contest will see this year. But if you can stay on top of it — and even contend through Week 10 — just imagine the rollercoaster of emotions throughout the season!
One of the most popular pools running, the USA Today Survivor Pool features a fantastic $5,000 top prize. The entrant who survives the longest with the highest point differential wins the grand prize. What do we mean by point differential? It’s a built-in tie-breaker that reduces the odds of having multiple winners at the end of the season. The point differentials of your selections are tallied throughout the season, and the survivor with the highest point differential wins any end-of-season tie.
Another leading name in free sports challenges with prizes, Yahoo has one of the most popular NFL survivor challenges on the Internet. Register to join the Survival Football Challenge group, join a friend’s existing group, or create your private group to play with family and friends. Custom contests allow you to play with a strike system so teams get a second or third chance if and when they pick incorrectly.
Another free contest with a $5,000 grand prize, The Lines’ Pro Football Survivor is overseen by Catena Media affiliate betting site The Lines. The contest should increase exposure for the site, which has less brand recognition than the aforementioned power players in the industry.
Check out our complete breakdown of the NFL survivor pool strategy, courtesy of our partners at PoolGenius. Looking for something simpler? We’ve got you covered right here.
Decide whether your entry will be based entirely on first instinct and gut decisions or 100 percent research. Map out your first few weeks of picks, or maybe even your picks for the entire 18-week regular season. You can never be too prepared for an NFL survivor pool.
Like Ross trying to carry a couch up a narrow stairwell in “Friends,” sometimes you need to pivot. A team you thought at the start of the season would be a lock to win its Week 4 matchup might lose its starting QB to injury or fire its head coach. Don’t marry yourself to a plan, strategy, or 18-week list of picks. Just like in fantasy and betting, we sometimes need to change up our order of attack.
The proverbial sheep often get slaughtered in betting, and the same often happens in pick’em and survivor pools. Being slightly different than the crowd doesn’t just make for fun stories — it often serves as the difference between an early exit and a true contender of an entry.
Remember that the odds of winning, from the get-go, are statistically very low. Treat survivor pools like a free scratch ticket that you can improve your chances with thanks to some educated guesswork. But if you lose, what’s the worry? You were expected to fail, anyway, and the L didn’t cost you a thing. Sports — and any contest related to watching sports — should be fun, first and foremost.
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