Patrick Mahomes is built for the biggest stage. Making his fifth Super Bowl start in the last six seasons, Mahomes is seeking his third straight Super Bowl MVP award. And if the Chiefs QB leans on the quick passing game, uses his legs and converts in clutch situations, he’ll be well on his way to earning it.
Mahomes led the NFL in completion percentage (83.6%) and success rate (60.9%) on quick passes (under 2.50 seconds) during the regular season, per Next Gen Stats. That marks Mahomes’ fourth season eclipsing a 60% success rate on quick passes, a mark that only five other QBs have reached since 2016. Mahomes and the Chiefs have especially emphasized quick passing recently. Over the past four games, Mahomes is averaging a 2.50-second time to throw; that’s more than a third of a second quicker than his average from Week 1-15 (2.87). Philadelphia might not have an answer, either. In Super Bowl LVII, Mahomes completed all 13 of his quick pass attempts — two of which went for touchdowns — against the Eagles.
So, what? We already know Mahomes is effective as a passer. But how about as a runner? His 5.9 yards per carry average in the Super Bowl are the highest among all players with at least 25 carries throughout Super Bowl history. Like with quick passing, Mahomes emphasizes his running ability in the playoffs. Kansas City’s signal-caller has been more willing to scramble on dropbacks during the postseason (8.1%) compared to the regular season (6.0%) during his career. Including the playoffs, his 78.3% success rate on scramble runs ranks highest among 17 QBs who have at least 25 scramble runs this season.
Perhaps most importantly, Mahomes delivers when it matters most. The Chiefs have gained a whopping +864% in win probability on third down in the Mahomes era. For context, that is 470% more than the next closest team. This season, Mahomes led the NFL with a 51.4% dropback success rate on third down. His knack for making plays in the clutch is a big reason why Kansas City has tied the NFL record with 17 straight one-possession game wins. Not impressed? The chances of the Chiefs winning all 17 of those contests — based on their win probability entering the fourth quarter of each — was just 0.02% (or 1 in 4,480). If Super Bowl LIX comes down to the wire, count on Mahomes and Co. to meet the moment because they have all season long. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Mahomes’ quick pass completions against the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.)
DraftKings Price: $10,000
In three of the four Super Bowls Patrick Mahomes has played so far, he’s thrown multiple touchdown passes and topped 23 fantasy points (obviously things didn’t go quite as well in the Super Bowl LV loss to Tampa Bay). He’s also coming off his best fantasy performance of the entire season after posting 30.1 points against the Bills with a huge assist from his legs (43 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns). The Eagles defense is admittedly elite, but nobody is more elite than Patrick Mahomes on the game’s biggest stages. He’s less expensive than Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts, but might have the best chance at 25+ points.
