Bo Nix or Jayden Daniels: Which rookie quarterback is more impressive?
Sports Seriously’s Mackenzie Salmon asks Tyler Dragon about the rookie quarterbacks that are heading into Wildcard Weekend.
Sports Seriously
NFL wild card weekend is about to kick off, and the USA TODAY Sports staff is back at the table breaking down their best NFL bets and predictions for it.
The NFL regular season is complete, and the most thrilling part of the NFL season is officially here.
Six wild card games are scheduled this week, with the final matchup coming Monday night. Wild card weekend starts with two matchups on Saturday, followed by a tripleheader on Sunday.
Our experts have provided the five best predictions for the wild card weekend games, selecting from all the available betting markets and supplying an in-depth analysis of spreads, player props and anytime touchdowns.
Here are the best NFL bets for wild card weekend with odds from BetMGM. Best of luck if you tail.
Odds as of Friday.
Jacob Camenker, NFL writer: Given the way the Steelers have played of late, I get that many will audibly gag upon reading this pick. Yes, they have lost four in a row coming into the playoffs, including a 34-17 loss to the Ravens. No, their offense hasn’t looked good much – if at all – during that stretch.
Even so, you should be looking to back Pittsburgh with this inflated spread.
The Steelers have historically done a good job of holding Lamar Jackson in check during his career. He is just 2-4 outright against Pittsburgh’s defense and has struggled to break through against Mike Tomlin, posting just eight passing touchdowns and nine interceptions against the Steelers. Jackson’s passer rating of 73.1 against Pittsburgh is his worst against any team, so if anyone can slow down the NFL’s reigning MVP, it’s the Steelers.
Additionally, Ravens vs. Steelers games tend to be close. Yes, Baltimore won the last matchup between the two rivals by 17, but that was a one-score game entering the fourth quarter. Before Baltimore’s most recent blowout win, a whopping nine consecutive games between the teams had been decided by just one score.
The cherry on top? No team has won back-to-back games in this rivalry by double digits since the Ravens did so during the 2006 season. Jackson and Co. are more than capable of making history, as we saw during the regular season, but the safer bet is for the Steelers to cover this big line in a closer-than-expected game.
Ayrton Ostly, NFL writer: This has less to do with Shakir and more with Defensive Player of the Year candidate Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos’ cornerback has been one of the best in the league this season. He’s allowed just 35 receptions for 306 yards in coverage in 16 games and a 59.1 passer rating when targeted, all career-bests.
With Amari Cooper’s availability uncertain, Shakir may draw Surtain II’s attention. The Broncos cornerback has covered a variety of wide receivers this season and typically the opponent’s top pass-catcher. Shakir led the Bills in targets (100) and receptions (76) in the regular season.
Whoever Surtain II draws as a primary assignment, they’ll very likely underperform. Shakir seems like the best bet to see Surtain II in coverage this week.
Nick Brinkerhoff, NFL writer: Scholastic book fairs were always a highlight during the long grind of a school year. Meant to encourage young readers, they instead mostly helped birth shopping addictions. Armed with cool little gadgets, posters and much more. Getting to peruse and spend money without supervision was a child’s first introduction to adult money. One of the more popular books at the fair, “Diary of a Wimpy Kid,” had the famous “cheese touch” scene. That is the Green Bay Packers heading into the postseason.
That moldy piece of Swiss that no one wants to touch is heading to Philadelphia in a game that many have the Eagles rolling in. The mountain of injuries has much to do with that, especially with the game-breaker Christian Watson out for the season. Whether he plays or not, Jordan Love’s elbow injury remains a concern, meaning it’s on everyone else to step up.
Enter Jayden Reed. The receiver famously had a 33-yard rushing touchdown against these same Eagles in Brazil to start the season. While he’s eclipsed this number in just nine games, he totaled three carries last week and seven in the last four games. That’s an indication that Matt LaFleur is trying to get the receiver more involved.
Green Bay must get the ball to their playmakers and hope for the best. Using Reed as a dual threat is a good place to start.
Jack McKessy, NFL writer: It’s been a year in which rookie quarterbacks have dominated the conversations about first-year players in the NFL. That makes sense, given that half of the first 12 picks in the 2024 NFL draft were used on gunslingers.
However, that may have led to underappreciated seasons for guys like McConkey, who quickly emerged as a rising star for the Chargers in his first year. Los Angeles’ second-round pick broke Keenan Allen‘s franchise rookie records for receptions and receiving yards in just 15 games and finished the season with 1,054 yards on 77 catches.
Many of McConkey’s most productive games have come more recently. Since Week 11, the rookie has 657 yards on 45 catches in seven games. Given that’s an average of nearly 6.5 catches per game in that span, I like his chances to see plenty of targets (and haul at least six of them in) as quarterback Justin Herbert‘s most reliable receiver in a playoff game. That’s especially true if fellow receiver Joshua Palmer is still dealing with a foot injury.
Tom Viera, NFL writer/editor: The people want what the people want. Well, I wanted another week of Bucky Irving, which we have this Sunday night. Backing Bucky has been a profitable move all season and this is a terrific matchup for him to display his explosiveness on the national stage.
The Buccaneers host the Commanders who have allowed a league-high 2.02 yards before contact allowed per carry, the third-most yards per rush and the eighth-highest explosive run rate. Bucky was a massive breakout player this season, leading running backs in yards after contact per attempt (4.03), fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.28), tied for fourth in yards per carry (5.4) and 11th in explosive run rate (13.0%) (min. 75 attempts).
Bucky has averaged 22 touches and 137.6 scrimmage yards in his past six healthy games. Bank on Bucky this weekend.
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