We’ve reached Championship Sunday in the NFL, and four teams will soon whittle down to two and head to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX. While it was a fantastic weekend of football to watch in the divisional round, it wasn’t too kind to us on the betting side of things, as we went 1-2-1 ATS. Naturally, there was going to be at least one upset that occurred, but I had the Rams pegged as the ones to pull it off instead of the Commanders. Mark Andrews didn’t do us any favors with our Ravens -1 bet either. 

To get us back on track, I’ll look to ace the conference championship games as we gear up for the Super Bowl in just a few short weeks. 

NFL season record

2025 playoffs
ATS: 4-5-1
ML: 5-5

2024 regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 38-44-2
ATS: 131-135-6
ML: 178-94

All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus

• Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (Fox, stream on fubo) 

These two teams split the regular-season series at a game apiece, but there is a massive caveat to that. In the Week 16 matchup in Washington, Jalen Hurts went down due to injury, which thrust Kenny Picket into the fold and lowered Philadelphia’s ceiling. With Hurts back under center, I expect the Eagles to win this game and advance to the Super Bowl, but it’ll be closer than the spread suggests. All of these matchups have come down to a single possession and Jayden Daniels has largely flourished against the Eagles defense. Philly has the second-highest blitz rate in the NFL, but that plays into one of Daniels’ strengths. The rookie ranks third in EPA per play vs. the blitz and completed 10 of his 15 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles blitz back in Week 16. While Daniels will help the Commanders cover, Saquon Barkley will push Philadelphia over the top to an NFC Championship win. The Commanders continue to struggle against the run and Barkley (who rushed for 150 yards against them in Week 16) will continue to exploit it, just as he did last week against the Rams with 205 yards on the ground.   

Projected score: Eagles 27, Commanders 24
The pick: Commanders +6

This latest chapter in the Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes rivalry will bring more of the same. While these two quarterbacks are currently knotted with four wins apiece in their head-to-heads, Mahomes has dominated in the playoffs with a 3-0 record against Allen. Why I think that’s slated to continue, this AFC Championship matchup largely has to do with the Buffalo defense. Lost in the madness of the Bills’ divisional round win over the Ravens was their continued struggles on third downs, allowing Baltimore to convert seven of its 10 opportunities. With cornerback Christian Benford in concussion protocol and safety Taylor Rapp nursing a hip injury that knocked him out of last week’s playoff game, the inability to get off the field on the key down isn’t expected to get any better. That gives Mahomes a tremendous advantage, and it doesn’t hurt that his go-to option in Travis Kelce has heated up now that the playoffs have arrived. While Buffalo may have won the regular-season matchup earlier this year, Kansas City wins when it matters most, continuing the theme of this rivalry. And the NFL’s first three-peat is still alive … 

Projected score: Chiefs 30, Bills 27
The pick: Chiefs -1.5