• The best: Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams entered the NFL with elite expectations after dominant three-year careers at the college level
• Rehashing an old debate: Despite their divergent paths in the NFL, there was a real debate at the top of the 2023 class between Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
One of the best exercises during NFL draft season is attempting to cross rank prospects to see where they may have landed in different years, especially as it relates to quarterbacks, as there can be a wide range of opinions regarding the talent of each class.
Certainly, that will be a topic of conversation with a 2025 quarterback class that is seen as much weaker than the 2024 group, but how does this past year’s group stack up with recent drafts that came before it? In an attempt to quantify that, we’ll rank every first-round quarterback, plus one early second-rounder, as the prospect they were. Keep in mind that subsequent NFL production is irrelevant to this ranking.
Lawrence was seen as arguably the most can’t-miss prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012. From the moment he stepped on the field, he dominated his competition and won a national championship in his true freshman year at Clemson. With his bazooka arm and plus athleticism at 6-foot-6, Lawrence led the Tigers to two more playoff appearances, earning a 90-plus overall grade in all three seasons he played.
Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner, was the presumed first overall pick before he even stepped on the field for the 2023 season. He responded with another stellar year, though not quite as clean as his previous campaign. With an ability to make Mahomes-esque plays on the move, Williams’ supreme arm talent was seen as the top asset in the 2024 class.
Young was seen as a prime candidate to overcome his diminutive stature due to his vision, accuracy, and playmaking ability. During his two years as the starter at Alabama, Young made 59 big-time throws compared to just 22 turnover-worthy plays. He was tremendous when throwing both in and out of structure and his playing style was compared to Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.
There was a great deal of debate about Stroud potentially going ahead of Bryce Young in the 2023 class because he was the player with a more traditional build for the position. The biggest knock on Stroud for most of his career was an inability to create outside of structure. A spectacular performance against Georgia in his final game displayed his ability to do so, vaulting him to the second overall selection in his class.
Maye never had a chance to play for a national championship like many others on this list, but he was incredible in his two years starting in Chapel Hill. His 80 big-time throws were ten more than any other FBS quarterback in those two seasons. He displayed supreme comfort throwing down the middle of the field, and he showed time and again that he could create on the move.
Wilson fought through injuries and inconsistency through his first two seasons starting at BYU. He started to get hot at the end of 2019 and parlayed that into an incredible 2020 season in which he led the nation in passing grade. He dominated an admittedly lesser level of competition, but his arm talent was NFL-caliber.
Perhaps Fields should’ve gotten more credit at the time, but there was a stigma that Ohio State quarterbacks simply don’t work out in the NFL. Fields was masterful with the Buckeyes, though, throwing 63 touchdowns and just nine interceptions in his two years as their starter. His 8.4% career big time throw rate is still the highest on record by a Power Five quarterback.
Daniels went on a wild ride during his five college seasons. He was a solid player for three years at Arizona State, but the program fell into disarray and he transferred to LSU. From there, he developed into a star, culminating in a Heisman-winning campaign in 2024. Daniels’ elite ball security and rushing ability stood out throughout his career while he became a much better pocket passer at LSU.
Lance became a top prospect because of his excellent physical tools and a spectacular 2019 in which he accounted for 42 touchdowns and did not throw an interception. He played just one game in 2020 for the Bisons, leading evaluators to speculate on his ceiling versus his lack of experience. San Francisco eventually took the gamble on the former, but we are left wondering what he could have been had he developed for a longer period of time.
Richardson was seen as arguably the most athletic quarterback to have ever stepped foot at the combine. His amazing arm strength and blazing speed were put on display at Florida, but he lacked the polish to consistently complete passes. There were times when he looked like the best player in the country. As we’ve seen in the NFL, the tools are tantalizing, but he needed to be reined in as a passer.
Levis’ draft fate may have been different had he entered after his stellar 2021 season when he earned a 90.6 overall grade. Kentucky’s supporting cast withered away and Levis struggled to a 65.8 passing grade in his final season. Like Richardson, Levis had tools to dream on, but he relied on them too often and could’ve been better executing the finer details of the position.
McCarthy saw less volume during his time at Michigan than almost any other prospect on this list. He certainly possessed NFL arm talent and athleticism while possessing a good amount of polish considering he turned 21 years old just before he was drafted. The question was whether a passer who threw for 300 yards just once during Michigan’s national championship run would be able to carry an NFL offense if needed.
Perhaps no player has gone through a greater transformation than Nix. He was a somewhat reckless gunslinger at Auburn before turning into the nation’s most efficient passer at Oregon. He was the most accurate quarterback in the FBS in 2023, though the knock was that the degree of difficulty at Oregon was low. As we’ve seen so far from Nix in Denver, there is still immense value in avoiding negative plays.
Penix’s age and injury history were the primary concerns regarding his evaluation as a prospect. When he was on the field, though, he proved to be a dynamic passer who could attack all parts of the field. During his two years in Washington, he led the nation in passing yardage by a wide margin while generating 70 big-time throws compared to just 20 turnover-worthy plays.
Armed with an all-star cast of receivers that included Heisman winner DeVonta Smith, John Metchie III, and Jaylen Waddle, Jones had an incredibly efficient season for the Crimson Tide en route to a national championship. He threw just four interceptions while earning an outstanding 94.8 passing grade. Doubts about Jones arose from his lack of elite physical tools and posting just one season with a high level of production.
After three relatively average seasons as Pittsburgh‘s starter, Pickett burst onto the scene in 2021 as one of the nation’s best quarterbacks in 2021. His elite production coincided with a breakout from future first-round receiver Jordan Addison. Pickett became the top option in a weak 2022 draft class, but his physical tools and lack of consistent production raised doubts about his chances at NFL success.
