Sean Barnard dives into the top player prop bets in Colts at Vikings ahead of the Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 9.
The Week 9 Sunday slate will be concluded by a matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings in primetime.
Minnesota started the season 5-0 but has dropped back-to-back games at the hands of the Rams and Lions to move to 5-2. Indianapolis sits at 4-4 with its most notable storyline being the quarterback situation. While the outlook for Anthony Richardson remains a developing story, it will be Joe Flacco starting under center in the matchup tonight.
The Vikings enter as 5.5-point favorites in the matchup. The Colts are listed as +195 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 47 for the game. Here are my four favorite prop bets ahead of the Sunday night matchup.
As is often the story with Jonathan Taylor, injuries have limited him from what has otherwise been an incredibly productive start to the season. After suffering a high-ankle sprain that kept him out for Weeks 5, 6 and 7, Taylor made his return to the field last week without missing a beat. The Colts’ star ran for 105 yards on 20 carries and added 12 receiving yards last week. Taylor has played in five games this season and recorded over 100 yards from scrimmage in four of these.
While the Vikings’ defense started the season incredibly hot, they have struggled as of late. Their inability to stop the run has been a major reason why. The Vikings allowed 160 yards and two touchdowns to Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 7 and 106 yards and a touchdown to Kyren Williams last week. After ranking in the top-15 defenses in each of the first six weeks, including in the top four in three of these weeks, Minnesota has regressed. Taylor is an even more talented rusher than these two backs and will have the inside track at a significant number of touches.
There should be a greater hesitancy to stack the box against Taylor, especially with the quarterback change. Flacco is also not a threat to take on the rushing responsibilities himself in the way Richardson can. Expect Indianapolis to lean on its star running back often and for him to eclipse 100 yards from scrimmage once again.
Justin Jefferson has tallied 646 receiving yards so far this season, which ranks third among all NFL wideouts. He is a complete package of a wide receiver with sure hands, advanced route running and big-play potential with every play. So far this season, he has tallied a reception of 27+ yards in six of the seven games.
In addition to the strong play of Jefferson, the Colts are vulnerable to giving up big plays. While they were able to prevent this the past two weeks with Tyler Huntley and Will Levis at quarterback, they have allowed the longest reception of 38+ yards in all six other games. Overall, the Colts are allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 24th in the NFL.
Expect Jefferson to continue to receive opportunities to go up and grab deep passes and for him to make his impact felt in this game. It takes just one play for him to break this number and the 26.5-yard line is too low considering his caliber of talent and the opportunity that will be directed his way. Expect Samuel Womack II to be handed the primary task of stopping Jefferson and for the Vikings’ star to add to his already impressive stats this season.
The Colts will have some tough decisions to make about the best route for Anthony Richardson moving forward. However, for the time being, Joe Flacco will step in as the starting quarterback for the fourth time this season. In the three games he has attempted a pass, Flacco is averaging 238.7 passing yards per game. He had his best performance against the Jaguars, throwing for 359 yards and three touchdowns without throwing an interception.
As mentioned in the section of the article regarding Jonathan Taylor, the wheels seem to be falling off the Vikings’ defense. While Flacco’s best days are undoubtedly behind him, he is still perfectly comfortable sitting in the pocket, making the right reads and allowing the team’s playmakers to do their job.
Looking at his overall passing prop, Flacco’s total is set at 241.5 yards with the over favored at -120 odds. He holds -350 odds of throwing for 200+ yards in the game and splitting the bet into 100+ yards in each half is a nice way to get some additional value.
T.J. Hockenson has officially been activated from the PUP list and will be active for the first time this season. He is about 11 months removed from tearing his ACL and will look to provide a nice spark to the Minnesota offense. There have been 21 receptions from the tight end position so far for the Vikings and Hockenson is a significantly more talented pass catcher than either Johnny Mundt or Josh Oliver.
Looking at this matchup, the Colts have struggled to defend tight ends. They have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season and rank sixth-worst in DVOA vs. tight ends. Before getting hurt last year, Hockenson had tallied 960 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He has a real chance to climb to the second option in the Vikings offense once he gets settled.
Look for this to begin in tonight’s matchup and for Hockenson to find his way into the end zone in his season debut. Expect the Vikings to make an effort to get the two-time Pro Bowl tight end involved and for Hockenson to be able to capitalize on the weakness in the Indianapolis defense.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
