NFL Week 15 picks: Consider Lions, Chiefs and Bengals on Sunday
Lorenzo Reyes explains why he likes the Lions, Chiefs and Bengals in Week 15.
The 2024 NFL season is entering its home stretch, and Sunday should be loaded as Week 15 arrives.
Bye weeks are officially over, so NFL Sunday will feature 13 total games, including a 12-game afternoon window during which many of the league’s top teams will play.
Week 15 will give NFL fans a potential Super Bowl preview in a battle between the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills. The same can be said of the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers game, though the Steelers making it to the big game would be surprising.
The Miami Dolphins are playing the Houston Texans in a battle that could further clarify the AFC playoff picture. The Denver Broncos are doing the same against the Indianapolis Colts, so the results of those contests could further clarify which teams have the best shot at wild-card berths.
NFL bettors can pick a part of the Sunday slate and find good value bets on it regardless of which teams you are rooting for. There are plenty of underrated mismatches that savvy gamblers can exploit, especially in matchups that are likely to be high-scoring.
Which picks against the spread, prop bets and anytime touchdown choices could ultimately pay off in a big way if included in parlays? Below is a multi-leg parlay to consider for Sunday.
All odds are via BetMGM as of Saturday.
The Texans are coming off a bye and playing at home in Week 15, which explains why they are favored. That said, this matchup is not favorable for Houston, as Miami’s passing attack can take advantage of a Texans pass defense that has been prone to allowing big plays.
Houston has allowed an NFL-high 26 passing touchdowns during the 2024 NFL season. The Texans have also allowed a completion of 41-plus yards in three consecutive games. That may not sound too bad, but the quarterbacks they have faced in those contests are Cooper Rush, Will Levis and the duo of Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones.
All that’s to say that the Texans will have trouble containing Miami’s high-flying passing attack, which has seen Tua Tagovailoa average 325.3 yards and 2.8 touchdowns over his last four starts. Add in that Houston will have trouble containing the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and it’s hard to imagine the Texans winning the game big – if they win it at all.
Feel free to take a chance on the yardage totals for Tagovailoa, Hill, Waddle or even Jonnu Smith if you’re seeking more player props than spread bets. Daring bettors could also use the moneyline to increase their parlay value, but since we’re getting three points, we’ll take that insurance.
The Bengals and Titans represent two of the NFL’s bottom-six scoring defenses, as Cincinnati allows 27.7 points per game (fourth-most in the league) while the Titans allow 26.3 (sixth-most). That explains why the combined point total is tied for the second-highest on Sunday’s slate, behind only the Bills vs. Lions game.
Despite the high total, this game should have a good chance of going over. The Bengals haven’t played a game with fewer than 47 combined points since their Week 7 loss to the Cleveland Browns on Oct. 20. Cincinnati and its opponents have averaged a combined 63 points per game since that contest, so this is well within striking distance of their normal total.
There are a couple of concerns with this pick. First, the Titans have scored fewer than 20 points four times in their last five games. If their scoring issues continue, it may be hard for the Bengals alone to pull this past 47.
Also, Joe Burrow is a bit banged up. He is dealing with wrist and knee injuries, so if he’s less than 100%, Cincinnati’s offense may not look as good as usual.
Still, it’s hard to recommend backing away from this one. Brian Callahan wants to show well against his former employer and mentor, Zac Taylor, so the Titans’ offense can have one of its best games of the past month. If they do that, Burrow should be able to answer in another high-scoring affair – unless his injuries are worse than he is letting on.
Young has very good mobility, but his playing style during his pro and college career has been akin to that of a young Russell Wilson. The duo frequently move inside and outside the pocket, but they are reluctant to scramble and prefer to keep their eyes downfield to find open pass-catchers.
However, Young has started to use his legs more recently. Over his last four games, he has averaged 3.75 carries per game and 24 yards on the ground. That puts this over/under of 13.5 well within reach, especially considering the Dallas Cowboys‘ issues against mobile quarterbacks.
Dallas has allowed 415 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, just one yard behind the league-worst Bengals. The Cowboys have also allowed a league-high seven rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, so Young may have opportunities to scramble for yardage in the red zone.
The Browns have been one of the worst teams against the run recently. They have allowed ten rushing touchdowns over their last six games and 18 total on the season. Some have come unconventionally, like Taysom Hill‘s three-touchdown performance in Week 11. Still, the fact remains that Cleveland is susceptible to allowing defenses to punch the ball in on the ground, especially in the red zone.
Pacheco will be in his third game back from a broken fibula in Week 15. While he will still split snaps with Kareem Hunt, it’s becoming clear that Pacheco will handle most of the rushing workload. After getting seven carries in his first game back, Pacheco saw his total balloon to 14 against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs should only want to get their third-year back more involved as he gets healthier, so relying on him to score in a favorable matchup seems reasonable.
Any bettor looking to squeeze more value from this parlay can consider plugging Hunt (+185) into the final product over Pacheco. However, with the Chiefs’ top running back trending toward getting more than 50% of the snaps again, he is the much safer back to trust.
