The NFC North has become the NFL’s new best division in 2024. Through Week 8, three of its four teams are positioned to make the NFC playoffs, and the other team, Chicago, is a Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary away from joining them.
The Lions, Packers, Vikings, and Bears are a combined 21-8, a winning percentage of .724. Detroit leads the North at 6-1, with 6-2 Green Bay and 5-3 Minnesota set up as wild-card teams.
If the NFC playoffs started in Week 9, the Lions would be the top seed, while the Packers are No. 5 and the Vikings are No. 6. The 4-3 Bears are only one game out of the No. 7 seed.
But with a full second-half slate left for each team and only four of the 12 total division games having been played, much will change. The Lions took first place by beating the Vikings in Week 7. The Packers can take first place by beating the Lions in Week 9.
The two big reasons for the inflated records are easy to see in the standings. The NFC North teams are a combined 13-3 at home, and they also are 9-2 when playing AFC teams, thanks, in part, to drawing the AFC South. They also have gained a sneaky edge by playing teams from the weaker NFC West.
Here’s projecting how the Lions, Packers, Vikings, and Bears will finish and whether all four can make the playoffs:
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1. Detroit Lions (6-1)
The Lions have the best record in the NFC behind only the undefeated Chiefs, and they also boast the league’s highest-scoring offense, averaging 33.4 points per game. Their offense is loaded, balanced, and explosive with Jared Goff executing the system at a high level with strong support everywhere.
The reigning division champs were the strong preseason favorites to repeat, and that hasn’t changed — Detroit will do just that. The Lions should go 6-4 down the stretch, at worst, to match last season’s 12-5 record, but they also have a 14-3 ceiling as they try to also secure the top seed, home-field advantage, and the lone bye in the playoffs.
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2. Green Bay Packers (6-2)
The Packers lost their first division game of the season to the Vikings at home in Week 4 and can’t afford to lose their second division game to the Lions at home in Week 9. Going 0-2 early against North competition with four left to play won’t be inspiring. Regardless of what happens vs. Detroit, Green Bay is looking at around four losses coming out of the Week 10 bye.
At 10-7, the Packers would still be improved after finishing 9-8 as the No. 7 seed last season. Detroit and Green Bay are headed to make the playoffs out of the division, making the real question whether they have company from a third or even fourth team.
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3. Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
The Vikings took a hard fall from 13-4 division winners in 2022 to 7-10 and not coming close to qualifying for a wild card in 2023. Two seasons ago, their uncanny ability to win a lot of close games late defied the odds and stats, leading to an anomalous record and an immediate playoff exit. Last season was lost when former starting QB Kirk Cousins went down with a torn Achilles.
This season, the Vikings got some breaks via key takeaways to start 5-0 despite giving up a lot of passing yardage. Brian Flores’ defense was making game-changing plays throughout the streak. Over the past two games, the Lions and Rams have exposed them a lot more, putting too much on Sam Darnold and the offense to answer.
Minnesota is 1-1 in division play and 2-0 in interconference play with three more teams from the AFC South left on the schedule. They come all in a row in Weeks 9 through 11 and the Vikings already beat that division’s best team, the Texans, in Week 3. The Vikings, at most, will lose five more games, putting them at 10-7. They would be almost a lock to make the playoffs after a one-year absence if that record includes beating the Packers a second time this year in Week 17.
4. Chicago Bears (4-3)
The Bears will be haunted for a while by the game-losing Hail Mary TD pass they allowed to the Commanders in the waning seconds. on Week 8’s road tilt The improbable result took away the chance to match the Vikings at 5-2. In a quirk of the schedule, the Bears have yet to play a division game and won’t do so until Week 11. A home matchup vs. the Packers begins a stretch of three straight division games. After that, the Bears need to play at San Francisco and Minnesota back-to-back weeks, sandwiched by a pair with Detroit.
Chicago is done with playing all four teams from the AFC South and also took advantage of facing fellow last-place team Carolina. The Bears got some front-loading breaks, but the backend with a lot of NFC North and NFC West on the schedule looks daunting. The Bears have a path to 9-8, at best, which would still mark a two-game improvement from last season. However, they are bound to remain the odd team out of the playoffs from the division.
Should all the NFC North teams finish above .500, that would follow the feat of what the four teams in AFC North did last season, combining to go 43-25 for a .632 winning percentage. Based on all the teams playing each other twice, one team is bound to take the brunt of it. The Bears may not be happy with 9-8 without a playoff trip, but they can end up in the same boat as the 2023 Bengals.
