Why the Bears WILL win the division: Chicago’s offense dominates the headlines, but Matt Eberflus’ defense will determine this team’s fate. The opportunistic unit excels at taking the ball away, having forced 13 turnovers (tied for second-most in the NFL) in six games. Utilizing the “Peanut Punch” to knock the ball loose and sticky fingers to snag errant passes on tips and overthrows, the Bears’ defense routinely creates short fields and scoring opportunities for the offense. Moreover, the smothering D, which ranks fifth in points allowed and seventh in yards yielded, can make opponents play on Chicago’s terms in “grind it out” affairs. Only one team has reached 20 points against the Bears: the Indianapolis Colts, who beat Chicago 21-16 in Week 3. With playmakers on all three levels of the defense — and a young, deep and talented secondary — these ballhawking Bears prey on foes’ negligence in all areas of the field. And given the immense impact turnovers have on NFL games, its no wonder Chicago’s currently riding a three-game win streak, having piled up eight takeaways in that span.

Why the Bears WON’T win the division: Caleb Williams‘ inexperience could put Chicago behind the eight ball down the stretch. Though the rookie has played well recently, the league will adapt quickly to his game and force him into mistakes by taking away the layups and challenging him to make difficult throws. If Williams loses some of the patience and discipline that have helped him thrive over the past few weeks, the losses could start to mount, with opponents baiting the rookie into playing “hero ball” and inherently spawning costly mistakes that keep the Bears from staying with the pack down the stretch. In Chicago’s two defeats, Caleb threw four interceptions and lost a fumble. In the four wins, he had just one pick. This is a simple equation, but the first-year player needs to stay on the right side of it.