Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
The final day of 2024 is here, which means you have just hours to finish all of your resolutions from 2024 before you have to start working on your new ones for 2025. I made a resolution seven years ago to never make another resolution and that has been working wonders.
Speaking of resolutions, we decided to make one for each NFL team, and that’s mostly because we’re an NFL newsletter and that’s what we do on days like this.
In today’s newsletter, we’ll also be handing out grades for Detroit’s 40-28 Monday night win over the 49ers. We’ll also be unveiling Prisco’s latest power rankings, and I’ll have some early Week 18 picks to take you into the New Year.
Just as a heads up, there will be no newsletter tomorrow. We’ll all be too busy watching the College Football Playoff. (If you want to check out our predictions for the quarterfinal games, you can do that here.)
As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends and neighbors to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Lions top 49ers: Grades and notes from Detroit’s Monday night win
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If you’re wondering how good the Lions are, they had absolutely nothing to play for Monday night and still beat the 49ers by double digits, 40-28.
Here are our grades from the game:
LIONS GRADE: B+
Dan Campbell said he was going to play his starters and stuck to his word. This was a meaningless game for the Lions, but they played like their season was on the line. The offense exploded for 40 points behind Jared Goff, who threw for 303 yards and three touchdowns. Ben Johnson pulled another play out of his bag of tricks with a hook-and-ladder TD that went for 41 yards (you can see the play here). The 49ers had no answers for Jahmyr Gibbs, who totaled 163 yards on just 22 touches. The defense did struggle at times, but they came on strong in the second half with two interceptions from Kerby Joseph and two sacks on Brock Purdy. This team looks ready for the their showdown with the Vikings on Sunday.
Lions notes
1,000-yard club. With 75 total yards against the 49ers, Jameson Williams now has 1,028 yards from scrimmage on the season. That makes the Lions the first team in NFL history to have two running backs and two wide receivers all top 1,000 scrimmage yards in a single season. Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Amon-Ra St. Brown all hit 1,000 yards from scrimmage earlier in the season.
40-burger. This game marked the fifth time this season that the Lions scored at least 40 points in a game with zero turnovers, which is an NFL record. The Lions had been tied with the 2024 Bills and 2019 Ravens, who both accomplished that feat four times in a single season.
Goff is getting hot. The Lions QB threw for 303 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions, which marks the third straight game where he’s thrown for at least 300 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. That’s tied with Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes for the longest streak in NFL history.
49ERS GRADE: B-
For the first two quarters of this game, the 49ers offense looked like the offense that we all thought we were going to see this season, but this team fell apart in the second half. Brock Purdy, who threw for a career-high 377 yards and three touchdowns, was impressive for most of the game, but he also threw two interceptions in the second half. The 49ers did get a breakout game from Ricky Pearsall, who caught eight passes for 141 yards and a touchdown, but that wasn’t enough. In the end, the 49ers lost this game because their defense couldn’t stop the Lions and because their kicker couldn’t make any kicks. (Jake Moody missed two field goals and an extra point.) The 49ers got beaten by a team that was playing for nothing, and that pretty much sums up their 2024 season.
49ers notes
Purdy bad. The 49ers have to make a decision on Brock Purdy’s contract this offseason, and one reason they might be hesitant to give him $60 million per year is because he seems to struggle in one key situation. Over the course of his career, Purdy hasn’t played well in games where the 49ers are trailing by one to eight points in the fourth quarter or overtime. In those instances, Purdy has completed just 56.4% of his passes with three touchdowns compared to seven interceptions, which has been good for a 52.9 passer rating. Purdy suffered an elbow injury at the end of the game and it’s unclear if he’ll be able to play in Week 18.
49ers’ winning streak is over against Lions. Going into Monday night, the 49ers had won 14 straight home games against the Lions. They hadn’t lost a home game against Detroit since 1975, but that 49-year streak is now over after Monday’s loss.
2. Prisco’s Week 18 Power Rankings: Eagles crack top five
As we get ready to head into the final week of the season, three of the top-five teams in Prisco’s Power Rankings will be able to rest their starters this week, so there probably won’t be a huge shake-up at the top going into the playoffs. However, we will be getting a huge showdown on Sunday with Prisco’s No. 3 team (Detroit) facing his No. 4 team (Minnesota) in what is easily the biggest game of the season.
With that in mind, let’s check out Prisco’s top five:
I’m not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here’s what has changed since Prisco’s last Power Rankings:
Two teams from Florida tied for the biggest jump this week: The Dolphins and Jaguars. For some reason, Prisco was impressed with Miami’s win over Browns, and as such, he bumped them up four spots from 22nd to 18th. As for the Jags, they moved up from 30th to 26th for beating the Titans.
The biggest jump in the NFC went to NO ONE. For the first time all year, there wasn’t a single NFC team that moved up at least two spots. There were seven NFC teams that moved up one spot this week, but no one made a bigger jump than that.
The biggest tumble this week went to the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have clearly given up on the season and as a punishment for that, Prisco dropped them four spots from 25th down to 29th.
Finally, let’s get to the bottom of the Power Rankings. There have been a total of four different teams at the bottom of the power rankings this year, and I have a big announcement: We can now add a fifth team to the list. After watching the Patriots get hammered by the Chargers on Saturday, Prisco dropped them three spots from 29th down to the bottom spot.
If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco’s Week 17 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything.
3. Breech’s Week 18 picks: Lions get NFC’s top seed, Broncos earn AFC’s final playoff berth
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My New Year’s resolution is to get ALL of my picks right in 2025 and if that’s going to happen, it has to start this week. Although I didn’t get all of my picks right last week, I did come close, going 14-2.
That being said, maybe I need to think of a new resolution, because nailing every pick in Week 18 is almost impossible. The final week of the season is always the most difficult week to predict, and that’s mostly because I have no clue who will be playing for either team. I have no idea which teams will be benching their starters, I have no idea if bad teams have mentally checked out and I have no idea why the Dolphins always lose in cold weather.
With that in mind, let’s get to three of my picks for Week 18:
Cincinnati (8-8) at Pittsburgh (10-6):Joe Burrow has been playing perfect football for nearly eight straight weeks and I’m not going to pick against a guy who’s been playing perfect football for nearly eight straight weeks. PICK: Bengals 34-27 over Steelers
Kansas City (15-1) at Denver (9-7): The Broncos are favored by 9.5 points in this game and that’s because the Chiefs are expected to rest their starters. Even without their starters, I still think this game could be close. During Andy Reid’s time in Kansas City, he’s rested his starters four times in the final week of the season and the Chiefs have gone 2-2 in those games and 3-1 against the spread. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on the Broncos in this game, and I’m not sure how well they’re going to handle it. PICK: Broncos 27-24 over Chiefs.
Minnesota (14-2) at Detroit (14-2) The Lions defense looked lost on the field against the 49ers on Monday night, so it won’t be surprising if Sam Darnold has a big game here. However, the Vikings have also struggled to stop the pass this year, and I think Jared Goff will outplay Darnold to help the Lions clinch the NFC North title and the top seed in the NFC. PICK: Lions 30-23 over Vikings.
4. Ranking the top-five wild-card matchups we want to see
Two weeks ago, we ranked the top five wild-card games that we want to see happen, and now we’re going to do it again since we have a much clearer picture of what the playoff field is going to look like.
This time around, Tyler Sullivan handled the rankings. Let’s take a look at the top-five wild-card games he wants to see.
1. (7) Bengals at (2) Bills. “This is the matchup every football fan should be rooting for because it brings with it utter chaos in Week 18. Remarkably, the Bengals are still in the playoff race as we enter the final week of the regular season. For them to get in as the No. 7 seed, they’d need to defeat the Steelers on Saturday and then sit back on Sunday and hope that both the Broncos and Dolphins lose their respective games. If those pieces fall just right, the Bengals would sneak in and punch their ticket to Buffalo, where the No. 2 seed Bills are waiting.” 2. (6) Chargers at (3) Ravens. “Yes, there’s the chance we could get another Harbaugh Bowl. Better yet, this latest Harbaugh Bowl would be a playoff matchup!” 3. (7) Commanders at (2) Eagles.“There’s just something about division rivals meeting in the playoffs that hits different. … So long as everyone is healthy for this potential playoff matchup, it could be one of the better NFC East playoff contests in quite some time.” 4. (5) Vikings at (4) Buccaneers.“Both quarterbacks have gone through the gauntlet in their NFL careers after being top-three picks. The Browns got rid of Mayfield following the 2021 season, and the Jets moved on from Darnold after 2020, and each signal-caller bounced around the league before landing in an ideal situation. In fact, Mayfield and Darnold were teammates on the Panthers in 2022.” 5. (5) Lions at (4) Rams. “Last postseason, Matthew Stafford made his return to Ford Field during Super Wild Card Weekend and was sent packing by his former Lions squad in a narrow 24-23 win. These two teams also met back in Week 1, and it required overtime for Detroit to get the win. If history tells us anything, these games are highly entertaining when the Lions and Rams square off.”
The only other game I’d toss in here is Steelers-Ravens. On paper, the Ravens are a much better team, but they always have trouble against the Steelers, and Pittsburgh could certainly pull off the upset if they met in the playoffs.
With the New Year right around the corner, it’s time for everyone to make a resolutions. Cody Benjamin’s resolution was to come with a resolution for every team in the NFL, so that’s what he did just in time for the New Years.
Let’s check out a few of the resolutions that Cody came up with:
Bengals: Consider a bold coaching change. “Zac Taylor’s resume includes some illustrious high marks. His Bengals also dig themselves into too many holes. Lou Anarumo’s defense may also need a facelift.”
Browns: Replace Deshaun Watson. “Obviously they can’t fully escape the ailing quarterback’s contract just yet, but they also cannot operate as if he’s the present or future under center. It’s past time for real change.”
Raiders: Give the keys to Tom Brady.“Owner Mark Davis may already be leaning upon the ex-NFL great, even teasing a big role for Brady down the road. A top-to-bottom makeover might benefit from a fresh voice.”
Cowboys: Don’t be swayed too much by the past.“In other words, yes, it’s OK to respect Mike McCarthy’s resume. But the lame-duck coach has also struggled to muster creativity when his top weapons are unavailable.”
Seahawks: Consider all options at quarterback.“Geno Smith is a fiery leader, but he’s also 34, banged up and approaching the final year of his contract. A major offensive line investment is also quite necessary.”
Cody actually came up with a resolution for every single team. If you want to see his full list, you can check it out here.
It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
Dolphins QB situation up in the air heading into Week 18. Tua missed Week 17 with a hip injury and there’s a chance that same injury could keep him out of Miami’s Week 18 game against the Jets. It Tua can’t go, then Tyler Huntley will get the start. The Dolphins have a lot on the line this week: They can make the playoffs with a win and a Broncos loss. We’ve got a running list of key injuries that could impact Week 18, which you can check it out here.
Mike Vrabel is officially on the market. The former Titans coach spent a good chunk of the season serving as a consultant for the Browns, but his contract is officially up, which means he’s now a free agent. That means that Vrabel can now interview with any team that might be interested in hiring him as a head coach. You can read more about Vrabel’s situation here.
Chargers might bench their starters. If the Steelers win on Saturday night, the Chargers won’t have anything to play for, so in that situation, it sounds like Jim Harbaugh will likely rest his starters. “We’ll do what’s best for the team,” Harbaugh told the media. If the Steelers and Ravens win, that means the Chargers would be locked into the six-seed, but it also means that the Ravens will have won the AFC North, so it would set up a Harbaugh bowl in the wild-card round.
Brock Purdy dealing with elbow injury. The 49ers QB injured his elbow during the waning minutes of San Francisco’s Monday night loss to Detroit. Purdy is expected to undergo an MRI today and it’s unclear if he’ll play in Week 18. If it’s a serious injury, that could make this offseason even more interesting for the 49ers since Purdy will be eligible for a contract extension as soon as the 2024 season is over. You can read more about his injury here.
Patriots to waive former Pro Bowler. The Patriots are set to release Yannick Ngakoue, according to ESPN. This is an interesting move, because it means that the former Pro Bowler will be able to sign with any team he wants as long as he clears waivers. This could give a contender a chance to add a pass-rusher just ahead of the playoffs. Ngakoue recorded 1.5 sacks this season in five games with the Ravens, but didn’t do much during his six-game stint with the Patriots.
Happy New Year to everyone, and thanks for spending 2024 here on the happiest corner of the internet!
