It’s one of the big-picture issues for the NBA: The best teams tend to win. We go into the season knowing exactly who the contenders will be come April, May and June. While that seems intuitive and a good thing, it’s not what we like as fans — we want teams to face jeopardy, we love underdogs and upsets. We want chaos.
What teams could provide chaos this season in the NBA? Who are the sleepers, teams that could make the playoffs and even make a little run? Let’s look at a few.
This team may not be a sleeper anymore, at least the betting market seems to have caught on that the Grizzlies should be very good this season.
Memphis won 50+ games and was the No. 2 seed in the West back-to-back seasons (2021-22 and 2022-23). However, the Grizzlies’ 2023 playoff run fell apart around Ja Morant becoming a distraction and a Steven Adams injury. Last season, no team was hit harder with injuries than Memphis — they lost 561 man-games to injury, more than 150 games ahead of any other team. Morant played just nine games (due to suspension and a shoulder injury), Adams missed the entire season and his backup Brandon Clarke played in just six games, and the list goes on and on (former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. led the team getting in 66 games, he was literally the only player on the roster who could have qualified for postseason awards).
The Grizzlies won just 27 games last season, but that was the anomaly.
This season, Morant and the Grizzlies are back healthy and eager to show they are ready to take a step forward. People seem to have forgotten just how dynamic Morant is on the court.
There are questions — can rookie center Zach Edey fill Adams’ shoes in the paint? — but also veteran leaders like Marcus Smart to provide depth and stability.
If the Grizzlies simply return to their early 2023 form they are, at worst, a top-six team in the West and maybe better than that. Memphis sees that 2023 team as the floor. This is a young, explosive team that defends and them winning a playoff round (and maybe two) is a real possibility.
For a team that brought back the core of a roster that finished fourth in the East in consecutive years, a lot of people are looking right past the Cavaliers.
It’s easy to understand why that core — Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen — has been in a second tier that hasn’t threatened the top of the conference, such as Boston, Philadelphia, or New York. The only thing that changed this season was the coach — the solid but considered conventional J.B. Bickerstaff is out, and the motion offense and the faster pace of Kenny Atkinson are in. Why bet on the Cavaliers as a sleeper?
A bet on the Cavaliers making a run is a bet on Evan Mobley making an offensive leap.
Mobley is an elite defensive player (third in Defensive Player of the Year voting two years ago) who has been okay on offense but not special. The Cavaliers need him to be an All-Star level player on both ends of the court. If Mobley can space the floor from 3 — 37.3% shooting from beyond the arc last season but on just 1.2 attempts a game — and show an improved handle and willingness to drive the lane for buckets, Cleveland suddenly looks much more dangerous.
If Mobley and the Cavaliers don’t get off to a fast start this season, the trade whispers will grow louder and louder around this Cleveland core.
The conventional wisdom is the Rockets will be in the mix for a play-in spot in the West and nothing more. This is still a young, developing team, one not ready to climb the ladder too far in a deep West.
That attitude may overlook all the talent on this roster.
Alperen Sungun made a leap last season not only as a scorer — a team-high 21.1 points a game — but as the facilitator Houston can run its offense through. He looked every bit the future All-Star. Amen Thompson has all the athletic talent in the world and is starting to put it together, he may have the highest ceiling of anyone on this team. Jalen Green can still jump out of the building and looks ready to take a step forward. Jabari Smith Jr. also looks ready to make a leap this coming season, his third in the league. And then there’s Reed Sheppard, the rookie who stood out at Summer League in Las Vegas.
All that doesn’t even include veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks.
Coach Ime Udoka got a lot out of his young team last season and started to build a culture, if all that talent above continues and develop, if things start to really click, the Rockets could be a playoff threat.
Houston is a team on the rise — and that rise could be a lot sooner than anyone expected.
