Which teams will be the biggest over and underachievers for the 2024-25 season?
Win totals are out for all 30 teams, and those gambling lines serve as a good proxy for expectations that fans should have.
Sometimes, these totals are unpredictable. The Grizzlies were by far the biggest underachievers last year, hitting their under by 18.5 games due largely to injury. Other times, the evidence is right there for those willing to adjust their expectations quickly. The Wolves, Thunder, Magic and Pacers were all teams led by young stars who showed promise at the end of their previous years. They all completely smashed their overs last season.
The last time I did this, I went 3-1. My best over bet, the Warriors, crashed and burned, but I correctly picked the Knicks as overachievers and the Spurs and Lakers as hitting their unders. Before I pat myself too hard on the back, two years ago I went 0-3. Follow this advice at your own risk, if the reasoning makes sense to you.
With that caveat, here are my favorite over and unders this year.
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| Team | Total | OVER | UNDER |
| Atlanta Hawks | 35.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Boston Celtics | 58.5 | +105 | -130 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 19.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 29.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Chicago Bulls | 27.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 48.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 49.5 | -115 | -105 |
| Denver Nuggets | 51.5 | +110 | -130 |
| Detroit Pistons | 24.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Golden State Warriors | 43.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Houston Rockets | 43.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Indiana Pacers | 46.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 39.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 43.5 | -105 | -115 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 47.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Miami Heat | 44.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 50.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 52.5 | +105 | -125 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 46.5 | -110 | -110 |
| New York Knicks | 54.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 56.5 | -135 | +115 |
| Orlando Magic | 47.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 52.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Phoenix Suns | 47.5 | -130 | +110 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 22.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Sacramento Kings | 46.5 | -120 | +100 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 36.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Toronto Raptors | 30.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Utah Jazz | 29.5 | +105 | -125 |
| Washington Wizards | 20.5 | -120 | +100 |
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The Bulls talked a big game during media day about trying to win as many games as possible. It might not matter — these guys don’t have the talent to win.
Chicago’s 39 wins last year were driven largely by heroics from DeMar DeRozan, who finished second in Clutch Player of the Year voting and should have won, and Alex Caruso. Those two literally snatched victory out of the jaws of defeat more often than any team in the league — the Bulls led the league with 27 clutch wins, getting W’s in 61.4 percent of their clutch games.
The Bulls aren’t going to have that type of closer on their roster next year. Zach LaVine has been at his worst in those situations, and the Bulls played much better without him last year. He will be featured until he gets traded. Coby White was at his best playing off DeRozan. Teams aren’t even going to guard Josh Giddey at the end of games.
This defense is almost guaranteed to be bottom-five in the league. It’s a scary prospect when LaVine is the second-best defender in the starting lineup. Nikola Vucevic is a bottom-five rim protector in the league and isn’t cleaning up any of those mistakes.
Chicago’s biggest problem last year was shooting. Stretch big Jalen Smith and the return of LaVine will help there, as will the departure of DeRozan. But Giddey is going to clog the floor much more than DeRozan did. Lonzo Ball’s minutes will be limited, and the Bulls have brought in a bunch of non-shooting prospects like Talen Horton-Tucker and Kenneth Lofton Jr. to compete for end-of-bench spots.
The largest driver of Chicago’s under will be the realization that it might as well pack it in for Cooper Flagg. The Bulls owe a top-10 protected pick to the Spurs, and it is critical to their future that they keep it.
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The Bucks had a good offseason, adding veterans Taurean Prince, Gary Trent Jr. and Delon Wright. That, along with more coaching stability, makes them better on paper than their 49-win team from last season.
I’m still taking the under.
Milwaukee is a very old team that is going to experience some decline from its veterans. Brook Lopez is 36 and will be counted on for substantial minutes. Damian Lillard is 34. Khris Middleton is 33 and coming off surgeries to both ankles.
Middleton is the key player for this team. Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be a top-five player in the league again, but Milwaukee needs a third scorer. Middleton couldn’t stay on the floor to fill that role last season. He’s already being limited during training camp, and the Bucks would be wise to monitor his minutes for the regular season.
The Bucks still have the high-end potential to be a great playoff team. They won’t overachieve in the regular season, though.
The Lakers under is generally one of the safest bets on the board. If you had bet it every year during the LeBron James era, then you would have gone 5-1. Last year, that under was one of my best bets and just barely snuck in. This year, I think the pendulum has swung too far in the opposite direction.
I’m taking the over.
The Lakers won 47 games last year and were on pace for 56 wins after they rediscovered their best starting lineup of Rui Hachimura in place of Taurean Prince on Feb. 3. JJ Redick has announced that rather than wasting 60 percent of the season trying to fiddle around with starters, he’s going to that Hachimura group from Day One. That should help them be better than last year’s team right away.
The Lakers have also added some shooting to their team, which was one of their big weaknesses. Rookie sharpshooter Dalton Knecht will get a chance to compete for minutes, according to Redick. Gabe Vincent was invisible last year due to injuries, and he should be fully back this season. And Redick plans to get his team playing a more modern style of basketball by hunting those shots more.
The Lakers might not get as much health out of LeBron and Anthony Davis as they did last year, but those two proved during the Olympics that they’re still among the best players in the world. The Lakers know how important home-court advantage is after losing in the first round last season. They should be gunning for wins and hit this over if they can get at least 65 games each out of that duo.
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The Pelicans go as Zion Williamson goes. They won 49 games last season but played at a 57-win pace in games that Zion played in. His injury history is always a huge red flag — he’s averaged under 37 games per season — but his conditioning looks terrific. He lost 15 pounds this summer, and it was noticeable from offseason pictures.
The Pelicans added a great talent in Dejounte Murray, giving them six quality players who should be starting for them. CJ McCollum could be pushed to the bench and end up as an overqualified Sixth Man. Herb Jones and Trey Murphy are two of the best rising young wings who should be even better.
This was a very good young team that has improved their personnel, following the pattern of teams that smashed their over last season.
