Jamal Murray is scoring more, rebounding more and his assists are up.
Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable weekend and a wonderful season as everyone catches up on a wild weekend of trades. If you didn’t get it, let me emphasize that I am yelling the word “wild” in the previous sentence.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have an eight- or 10-game slate tonight, depending on the site, which is in the range of a perfect number of games for a slate. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
Anytime Nikola Jokić finds himself on this slate he will make this list. I hate to sound like a broken record, but the man has a higher ceiling than anyone on the slate, and in this matchup, he has an even higher floor. He’s coming off an 83 DraftKings point outing on Saturday against Charlotte. He’s scored over 60 fantasy points in three of his last four games. The Pelicans are a prime matchup for another ceiling-type performance.
New Orleans allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers and their defense ranks third to last in the league. The Pelicans are the sixth-fastest-paced team in the league over their last 15 games and Denver ranks in the top five throughout the entire season. The total is 240. There will be plenty of opportunities for Jokić to go crazy. He’s a clear core play.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)
The Oklahoma City point guard is the next clear option for those looking for a ceiling output. He’s averaging over 50 fantasy points throughout the season and has 63- and 81-point efforts over his last five matchups. Milwaukee’s defense has been friendly to opposing point guards, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing guards this season.
This home matchup is favorable for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s splits. Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace are both questionable for tonight’s bout. The Kentucky product had already seen an increase in usage and minutes over his last five games, so imagining him with a baseline of 36 minutes on the court with a near 40% usage rate makes him a near must-play on this slate.
I’m surprised Miles Bridges is on the list of core plays, but the stars are aligning tonight for a great game from the Charlotte forward. Over the last five games, he’s averaged 45 DraftKings points a night, and he’s been much better at home this season. He’s consistently gone over 46 points recently and should be locked in around that against Washington.
The Wizards allow the most fantasy points a game to opposing power forwards and are the worst defense in the league. They are a big pace-up to Charlotte as a top-five paced team and Bridges’ usage has been north of 30% a game in his last two weeks of play. A 50-point fantasy outing is well within reason here. He is a remarkable play on FanDuel and a great play on DraftKings.
Mark Williams has played over 29 minutes a night in eight straight games. His usage rate in the last two weeks has been steady at around 25%. He has an outstanding matchup against the Washington Wizards, a team that allows the most fantasy points a game to opposing centers. His price has risen rapidly but he’s still quite affordable on FanDuel and reasonably priced on DraftKings.
The Charlotte center offers the perfect combination of a high floor without having to spend up at the position aggressively. You can roster anyone on this Hornets roster against the Wizards in cash lineups. With still no LaMelo Ball, Williams will get his fill and is a cash option thanks to his steady floor. Myles Turner ($6,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel) is another cheap center option.
The Grizzlies’ defensive rating may rank seventh on the entire season but in the last 15 games that number drops down to 23rd. It is a bit of a small sample but still significant enough to question their defense with the way their roster is currently constructed.
Chris Paul isn’t exactly one to break the bank but he is consistent and dependable. The veteran guard will see the court for around 30 minutes with his combination of points, rebounds, and assists. Memphis is still playing at their breakneck pace, so the extra possessions will make up for not having the highest usage rate. He also opens up the bank to spend elsewhere.
Jamal Murray is a better cash option on DraftKings, but he still slots well on either side. I will talk about Denver a lot today, so I apologize for repeating myself. But it’s a 240 total against a bad defense. The Nuggets will score plenty. Murray is seeing the court for 37 minutes a night with a 28% usage rate in his last four games, so I’m quite surprised by this pricing on DraftKings.
Murray is scoring more, rebounding more and his assists are up, too. The Pelicans allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing guards and we’ve already seen Murray go over 50 fantasy points eight different times this season.
Tyrese Haliburton (PG, SG – IND)
The Pacers guard has averaged 40 points a game this season but his most recent performances have far outpaced that benchmark. Tyrese Haliburton is capable of a 14-DraftKings point effort but can get north of 70, too. I’m leaning that he will have more of a 70-point type effort tonight.
Utah allows the second-most fantasy points a game to opposing point guards with the second-worst defense in the league. The Jazz have begun to play faster of late as well, ranking in the top half of the NBA in pace of play. Haliburton has a low ceiling but a high floor, and his early rostership projection doesn’t give enough credit to the chance he performs to his 95th percentile output. He makes for the perfect GPP play.
Trey Murphy III (SG, SF – NOP)
With guard-forward eligibility in a fantastic bring-back spot for all your Denver-heavy lineups, I’m surprised at how low the early rostership is on Trey Murphy III. With no Brandon Ingram and Jordan Hawkins questionable, Murphy should see higher usage than his 22% average, and maybe even more minutes than his already incredibly high number of 38 a night.
The man has been on fire of late with two straight 50-point efforts on DraftKings. Yet, his price hasn’t changed a bit. This is a spectacular setup for another great DFS performance and maybe rostership will increase. As of now, he makes for a spectacular GPP play.
Another player whose rostership is a bit off is Pascal Siakam. He has scored over 50 fantasy points in two of his last three games and over 40 in six of his last seven. If we want to continue with trends, he’s covered the 37-fantasy point benchmark in nine of his last 10 matchups. He has a consistent floor.
Siakam’s ceiling is what we’re looking for and I believe he’ll reach it against the second-worst defense in the league. The Jazz have allowed the third-most total fantasy points to opponents this season. This game has a 238-point total and Siakam is nearing a 30% usage rate in the last week of play. He’s capable of a monster performance. We just might see it here tonight.
Jose Alvarado is scheduled to make his first start of the season and projects as one of the best values on the slate. He tallied 33 minutes and 20 points on the court on Friday, wrapping up 37 DraftKings points in his effort. I wouldn’t project him for a similar output tonight but he should see the court for similar minutes in a much better matchup.
Denver is a fast-paced team with a bottom-10 defense and allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. The total here is 240. I don’t think Alvardo will exactly get high usage but there are plenty of points to go around for New Orleans. At a sub-$5,000 price, he should return six or seven times his value tonight. He makes for a great late swap option depending on rostership.
With the roster shake-up, Keon Ellis is expected to start for Sacramento. There’s a chance Devin Carter will take that spot, but I’m pretty sure about Ellis. Any starter who’s sub-$4,000 automatically takes the spot of a clear value, and that’s where the Kings shooting guard currently sits.
Ellis has already been averaging more minutes and usage in recent play. I project him close to 27 fantasy points across 32 minutes of play. Minnesota isn’t the friendliest DFS matchup but Anthony Edwards is questionable, so there’s a chance Ellis gets a depleted Timberwolves defense. Even if he doesn’t, his price is simply too low to not roster in GPPs and cash lineups as a clear value play.
It feels like Aaron Gordon’s pricing has been in a bit of a free fall throughout the season, but I think we’ve reached the bottom of his price range. Now is the time to buy stock. Denver will be a popular team to roster on today’s slate. With a high expected rostership going to Nikola Jokić, I expect Gordon to be a great GPP option for a spend-down option.
Gordon has started the last three games, seeing the court nearly 30 minutes a night. He’s not the highest usage guy, of course, but a weak Pelicans defense opens up many opportunities for Gordon to return high value. He’s broken the 30-point barrier plenty of times this season with a 50-burger in there as well, so he has the ceiling output in him.
