Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 52 fantasy points a game on the season.
Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable weekend as we celebrate the holiday season. Maybe big cash is on your wish list, and I’m here to make it happen.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have an 14-game slate today, with 11 games for DFS purposes, so you can get creative. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF, C – MIL)
After missing the last game against Washington (where he would have been in a smash spot), Giannis Antetokounmpo is back again in a prime DFS position. He is currently questionable with back spasms, so monitor his status. If he is out, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and/or Taurean Prince will be worth a look.
The Bulls are the fastest-paced team in the NBA and have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opponents and opposing power forwards. Antetokounmpo is the highest projected player on the slate and can reach 70+ DraftKings points, which he has done seven times already this season and in two of his last three outings. On FanDuel he’s a bit more of a risk with a $12,000 price tag, however given his ceiling, you’ll want him in your lineups. I like him more in GPPs compared to cash games but he works for both.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)
The other star set up to smash tonight is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder guard gets to face a Washington Wizards team allowing the most fantasy points to opponents and the second-most to opposing point guards. Gilgeous-Alexander has 17 straight games scoring 25+ points, so he’s an easy cash lineup lock.
Gilgeous-Alexander plays at home on Monday, where he shoots better and has a more efficient output. The Wizards are the fourth-fastest-paced team in the NBA with a defensive rank of 29th. The Thunder have an implied point total of 120. With Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage rate at 34% over the past two weeks of play, he can reach a ceiling of 70+ points.
After coming back down to earth on Saturday against the Pelicans, Karl-Anthony Towns is set up for another smash spot. In his four games before Saturday, the Knicks’ big man scored 58 points per in DraftKings. He’s averaging 52 fantasy points a game on the season. The Knicks play at home on Monday and face a depleted Raptors squad with Jonathan Mobo expected to start at center.
Even when healthy, Toronto has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this year, so Towns should eat down low. It’s an obvious pace-up spot and considering how he’s not the highest-priced center and the options around him, I expect him to be one of, if not, the highest roster player at the position.
Donovan Mitchell (PG, SG – CLE)
With the highest implied total on the slate, the highest-usage player on the most efficient offense in the league feels like a cash game lock, especially when he’s priced sub-$9,000. In nine out of the last 11 games, Donovan Mitchell has reached 40 fantasy points and Utah is in a prime position to allow a ceiling game out of the Cleveland guard with the lowest-rated defense in the league.
The Jazz have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing point guards this year. Despite a lack of superior ceiling games out of Mitchell, his floor is unquestioned. He makes for a great cash option despite leaving a bit more to be wanted in the GPP streets.
Mikal Bridges has been playing some insane minutes recently, averaging over 40 minutes a game over his last five contests. No one is projected to see the floor more than Bridges tonight. In a pace-up spot against a Raptors team with a 20% usage rate, he should have plenty of opportunity to get to his projected 33 fantasy points tonight. Even if the Knicks blow out the Raptors, Bridges should stay on the floor. Considering they are 15-point favorites, I would say it’s fairly likely they end up blowing them out, but that just means more chances for Bridges to get his against backups and do well for your cash lineups.
If you don’t want to spend up at the center spot tonight, Rudy Gobert is your guy as a pay-down option. The Timberwolves center is coming off a solid game and sets up nicely, projected for around 37 fantasy points across 36 minutes. Gobert has averaged a double-double and the Hawks allow the fifth-most points to opposing centers.
With how close this spread is, I expect Gobert to be out there the entire game. Atlanta will be a big pace-up spot for Minnesota with the third-fastest pace of play in the league. Gobert’s ceiling is a bit limited with his usage. However, with a high possession rate and a solid matchup with his price tag, Gobert is a solid cash option.
Taking this with a grain of salt, the early projections only slot Jalen Williams for around 10% ownership, meaning he’s an excellent GPP option. The Thunder forward has seen a bit of a dip in pricing from his peak north of $9,000, but I expect tonight to be a great time to buy the dip. We’ve seen 60+ fantasy outputs from Williams and no team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing power forwards than the Washington Wizards.
Oklahoma City could score 140 points tonight without blinking an eye. The Thunder frontcourt piece is coming off a game scoring 33 points against a much tougher Miami defense. He does have a floor but I’m buying his ceiling potential tonight.
Tyler Herro fluctuates between performances with plenty of sub-30 fantasy point outings combined with many 50+ and even a 70-burger back in November. He’s capable of lighting it up at any time.
Projecting him around his season average of 41 fantasy points a game puts him in a great spot as a solid value. Brooklyn’s defense isn’t exactly scary, ranking 27th this season in efficiency. There are plenty of paths to Herro finding his ceiling tonight. He projects around 8% ownership, so he makes for a great GPP option.
John Collins is averaging 35 DraftKings points a night and will be rostered in around 5% of lineups. Cleveland may have the top-ranked defense but Utah’s scoring has to come from somewhere.
Lauri Markkanen is a fine option going against Dean Wade, but Collins makes for a better GPP pivot. The Jazz frontcourt piece is capable of 50+ fantasy points and makes for a great value play that can open up other areas in your GPP lineups.
If you’re looking for an easy punt play at the guard position, Kris Dunn is your guy. He plays starter minutes, is priced where even 20 DraftKings points put him at 5X range and despite the Memphis Grizzlies ranking as a top-five defense, they are still the fastest-paced team in the league and are surprisingly friendly to opposing shooting guards from a fantasy perspective.
Dunn is coming off a 24-fantasy point outing and has reached 30+ a handful of times before. He’s more of a GPP value than a cash lock but I still like him in this situation with a high number of expected possessions.
Wendell Carter Jr. (PF, C – ORL)
With the number of injuries faced by the Magic, Wendell Carter’s minutes and usage have climbed since he’s been healthy since the end of November. He will have his peaks and valleys — scoring 10 fantasy points one night versus 35 the next — but he’s coming off a lower outing, so what better time to invest than now?
Even Jalen Suggs is questionable tonight, so despite facing a solid Boston defense, they get this game at home. I expect Carter on the floor for around 28 minutes. He is projected for over 25 fantasy points.
In his last four games, Jaden McDaniels has averaged over 30 fantasy points a night. Yet, his price has stayed stagnant. Minnesota is in a prime matchup against Atlanta in what should be a high-paced, high-scoring affair.
The Hawks allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards. I’m shocked McDaniels’ price hasn’t moved after 43 and 37 DraftKings points outings last week. He should see the floor for around 30 minutes. I’m going to ride the hot hand of averaging 12 points and eight boards over his last two weeks of play.
