Sunday’s NBA Draft lottery doesn’t come with the fanfare of last year’s edition, when French phenom Victor Wembanyama was the prize every team wanted.
The Spurs quickly learned what the luck of the ping pong balls can do for a franchise. San Antonio didn’t sniff playoff contention in Wembanyama’s rookie season, but the No. 1 pick left no doubt he has all the makings of a franchise player and future MVP candidate.
Make no mistake: there is no Victor Wembanyama in this year’s draft. The 2024 NBA Draft class is viewed as one of the worst in recent memory, so the lottery winner isn’t necessary guaranteed a franchise-changing player.
That doesn’t mean some aren’t available. The 2013 draft was similarly viewed as low on talent. 11 years later, that evaluation certainly doesn’t seem wrong. Yet, it still produced a two-time MVP in Giannis Antetokounmpo and four-time Defensive Player of the Year in Rudy Gobert.
Talent is out there, regardless of whether there is a Wembanyama up for grabs or not. The NBA world will find out Sunday which teams will get first crack at it.
Here’s a closer look at how the NBA Draft lottery works and which teams have the best odds in 2024.
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The Pistons and Wizards share the highest odds to land the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft at 14 percent, followed by the Hornets and Trail Blazers.
| Team | Odds to win No. 1 pick |
| Pistons | 14.0% |
| Wizards | 14.0% |
| Hornets | 13.3% |
| Trail Blazers | 13.2% |
| Spurs | 10.5% |
| Raptors* | 9.0% |
| Grizzlies | 7.5% |
| Jazz* | 6.0% |
| Rockets (via Nets) | 4.5% |
| Hawks | 3.0% |
| Bulls | 2.0% |
| Rockets* | 1.5% |
| Kings | 0.8% |
| Warriors* | 0.7% |
The Raptors, Jazz, Rockets (via the No. 12 pick) and Warriors would keep their pick in the event they moved up into the top four. Houston’s No. 12 pick would go to the Thunder if it doesn’t land in the top four, however, and the Warriors’ pick would go to the Trail Blazers if it’s not in the top four.
The Raptors’ pick must remain in the top six, otherwise it would go to the Spurs. Utah’s pick would go to the Thunder if it fell out of the top 10, but that scenario is extremely unlikely as it would require three teams jumping the Jazz in the draft order.
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The NBA Draft Lottery determines the first four picks in June’s draft. In a draft without a clear-cut No. 1 player, just getting into the top four could be a big win.
Here are the odds for each team to land a top-four pick in Sunday’s lottery:
| Team | Odds to land top-4 pick |
| Pistons | 52.1% |
| Wizards | 52.1% |
| Hornets | 50.3% |
| Trail Blazers | 50.0% |
| Spurs | 42.8% |
| Raptors* | 37.2% |
| Grizzlies | 32.0% |
| Jazz* | 26.3% |
| Rockets (via Nets) | 20.3% |
| Hawks | 13.9% |
| Bulls | 9.4% |
| Rockets* | 7.1% |
| Kings | 3.8% |
| Warriors* | 3.4% |
As mentioned, the Raptors, Jazz, Rockets (No. 12 pick) and Warriors would keep their pick if they moved up to the top four. If they don’t, the Rockets’ No. 12 pick and the Warriors’ pick would go to Oklahoma City and Portland, respectively.
The Raptors and Jazz can still keep their picks without jumping into the top four. Toronto just needs to avoid a team jumping ahead and knocking them out of the top six, while the Jazz would need to be jumped by three teams to lose their pick.
The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery drawing will be conducted on Sunday, May 12 from Chicago.
The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery can be watched on ESPN, or streamed live on ESPN+ or Sling.
