DraftKings’ main slate for Wednesday features the first nine games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Young has been magnificent with over 60 DraftKings in two of his last three starts, and he brings this type of upside tonight in an elite setting vs. the Bulls. Atlanta and Chicago both rank top-five in pace and bottom-10 in defense efficiency this season, and as a result, this game presents the highest total on the slate (244.5 points). Furthermore, the Bulls are only favored by two points.
You can’t ask for a better environment than this and Young has been excellent against Chicago this season, with 55 DraftKings points in back-to-back meetings with the club. Jalen Johnson (shoulder) remains out for the Hawks, and Young should score nothing less than 50 DraftKings points tonight.
Editor’s note: Young has been ruled out, check the Player Models for updates.
While Paolo Banchero (oblique) is back, Franz Wagner (oblique) and Jalen Suggs (back) will remain sidelined. In this situation for the last two games, Anthony has been terrific as a starter for the Magic, producing 38.3 DraftKings points in 36.3 minutes per game. Orlando desperately needs Anthony’s offense with Wagner and Suggs missing. With these two off the floor this season, Anthony is supplying 1.2 DraftKings PPM with a 30% usage rate and a 30% assist percentage.
The Bucks just played last night and are always a strong matchup for opposing guards with Damian Lillard at the helm. Anthony has a ceiling of over 40 DraftKings points in this spot and is vastly underpriced.
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Murphy has been red hot and needs to be rostered against this Dallas team that is on the second leg of a back-to-back set. The wing torched the Bulls for 54.5 DraftKings points last night and has now scored at least 43 DraftKings points in five of his past seven starts.
Evident from his season-best outing Tuesday, Murphy sees no downgrades to his role with Zion Williamson (hamstring) back for the Pelicans. In fact, all the defensive attention Williamson garners opens up many outside shots for Murphy, and with Williamson on the floor this season, Murphy’s production increases to 1.2 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. Murphy’s current salary doesn’t reflect his tremendous form and he is a strong spend for all formats.
With the Jazz depleted, Collier has been starting, and the rookie was outstanding in Sunday’s win over the Nets, finishing 47.8 DraftKings points across 37.2 minutes, both of which set career highs for the guard. Lauri Markkanen (back), John Collins (injury management), and Jordan Clarkson (foot) all missed this game, while the high-usage Collin Sexton was active. Now, Sexton will be out along with Markkanen, Collins and Clarkson tonight, leaving Collier with potentially an even larger role than what he saw Sunday.
With a 23.6% usage rate and 36.8% assist percentage, Collier is scoring 0.9 DraftKings PPM with Markkanen, Collins, Clarkson, and Sexton off the floor. Collier should approach 40 minutes with the Hornets only favored by 5.5 points and he brings excellent upside relative to his low salary in this situation.
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With Immanuel Quickley (hip) out Monday vs. the Warriors, Barnes stuffed his stat sheet en route to 49 DraftKings points. The forward has scored at least 45 DraftKings points in three straight games and Quickley will remain unavailable Wednesday. Barnes has made 19 starts without Quickley this season, and the former is leading the Raptors with 46.1 DraftKings PPG in those contests, via the On/Off Tool.
The Celtics defense has been average this month, ranking 15th in rating and this game carries a high total of 230.5 points. Barnes has 50 DraftKings points upside in this spot and is worth attacking in GPPs.
With the Jazz shorthanded recently, Sensabaugh has taken advantage of a larger role off the bench, scoring 51.75, 32.75, and 22.25 DraftKings points in his last three games. The second-year player received 26.6 minutes with Markkanen, Collins, and Clarkson out Sunday, and that number has the potential to grow tonight, with Sexton joining those three players on the sidelines.
Sensabaugh has played 101 minutes with those four players off the court this season, and he has been awesome in that time, scoring 1.3 DraftKings PPM behind a huge 30.3% usage rate, which is an 8.6 percentage point lift from his average, via the On/Off Tool. This type of role and production is hard to ignore at only $4,500, and Sensabaugh is rating as the No.1 forward value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
Banchero is too cheap for his upside. In just his first start back after missing the previous 34 games, Banchero exposed the same Bucks team he is playing tonight for 54.25 DraftKings points in only 27 minutes of work last Friday. Both Wagner and Suggs missed this game, and with this being Banchero’s third start removed from the lengthy absence, our ShotQuality projections are forecasting the forward for 30 minutes tonight, giving him more than enough time to go off.
With Wagner and Suggs off the floor this season, Banchero’s usage jumps 7.3 percentage points to an incredible 41%, and he scores 1.7 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Many things are lining up for Johnson to have a strong performance. The Spurs are back at home after a three-game road trip and they are facing the Grizzlies, who lead the league in pace. Additionally, Jeremy Sochan (back) is out. Johnson is amassing 24.8 DraftKings PPG with Sochan sidelined this season (14 games) and Johnson is notably scoring 5.0 more DraftKings PPG at home this season than when on the road.
This game carries the second-highest total on the slate at 239 points, which is the largest total the Spurs have competed in this season. In the three home games Johnson has played in with totals of at least 230 points this season, he is averaging 28.5 DraftKings PPG, which would be an awesome return at his low salary.
For all the same reasons Johnson is a great target from the Spurs, Wembanyama is the best spend on the slate. The 21-year-old has been 3.8 DraftKings PPG better on his home floor than when on the road this season and in the 12 starts Wembanyama has made without Sochan this season, Wembanyama is averaging 55.3 DraftKings PPG with a 32.6% usage rate.
As noted above, with the Grizzlies and their league-leading pace in town, this game presents the highest total the Spurs have played in this season (239 points). San Antonio’s implied team total ranks fifth on the slate (118.5 points) and for the four instances Wembanyama has played behind an implied team total of at least 115 points on his home floor this season, the superstar has been brilliant with 68 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
With both Wagner and Suggs inactive, and Goga Bitadze (concussion) only playing a half, Isaac had his best game of the season Sunday vs. the 76ers. In 27 minutes, Isaac posted a double-double of 41.75 DraftKings points, both of which set season highs. Bitadze will join Wagner and Suggs on the sidelines tonight, which should result in Isaac seeing 25-30 minutes and destroying his cheap salary.
Isaac is generating 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Wagner, Suggs, and Bitadze off the floor this season, and he is rating as the No.1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
