The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Jalen Brunson had one of his best games of the season last night, recording a massive 42-point, 10-assist double-double. He added six rebounds and two steals while shooting 14-for-27 from the field with a 41.4% usage rate. It was Brunson’s third points and assists double-double in his last five contests. The two-time All-Star has a respectable projected ceiling at the point guard position despite being $8,400.
Not only does Brunson have the highest ceiling at this position, but he also has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus and ownership coming in just below 20%. The Knicks have won six of their last seven games and are 4.5-point road favorites in their second leg of a back-to-back. The Raptors rank 25th in defensive rating, and given Brunson’s recent play, he should be at least $9,000. He is simply too cheap.
The three most popular players on this seven-game slate all play for the Miami Heat. Leading the way with a near 35% projected ownership is point guard Terry Rozier, who has dual guard eligibility and is only $4,600. Rozier has recorded back-to-back ceiling performances, scoring 35+ DraftKings points in his last two games. He has shot 55.5% from the field while averaging 20.5 points per game during that time.
After trading Zach LaVine to the Kings, the Bulls are in full-on tank mode. However, they have been playing at the third-fastest pace in the league, which makes them a favorable matchup for opposing guards. Jimmy Butler is still suspended without pay, which solidifies the playing time for role players like Rozier. He will still come off the bench, but Rozier is projected to play 32 minutes with a 22% usage rate.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
Tuesday night features a battle of the top two teams in the Eastern Conference between the Celtics and Cavaliers. Despite being fully healthy, the Celtics are two-point road underdogs, but this game has the highest total on the slate at 238 points. Expect a high-scoring, entertaining game in Cleveland tonight.
From a fantasy perspective, there are not a ton of pieces that look intriguing in this matchup. However, Jaylen Brown and Donovan Mitchell have the highest projected ceiling at the shooting guard position. The former is $600 cheaper with shooting guard and small forward eligibility and has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games. Brown has averaged 25.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 45.6 DraftKings points per game during that stretch. He is my favorite player to target in this showdown.
The Nets are running out of players with three starters out, including Cam Thomas, Cameron Johnson, and Ben Simmons. Those three being out will open the door for role players like Keon Johnson to step into heavy minutes. He is projected to play 32 minutes with a 25% usage rate. With those three off the floor, Johnson has a team-high +2.33% usage rate and a +2.24 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
Priced at $5,000 with dual guard eligibility, Johnson is drawing almost a 25% projected ownership. The Nets are nearly double-digit home underdogs to the Rockets and have the lowest implied team total on the slate at 100.5 points. Despite the low total, this is a team worth getting exposure to due to all of their players being out. It will not take much for Johnson to exceed his salary-based expectations in this spot.
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Jayson Tatum was four rebounds shy of a triple-double last Friday and three rebounds shy on Sunday. Is tonight the night Tatum captures the elusive triple-double? Despite not reaching that benchmark, Tatum has put on a masterclass in his last two games, averaging 31 points, 10.5 assists, 6.7 rebounds, and 59.6 DraftKings points per game while shooting 56.1% from the field and 50% from distance during that time.
Tatum is the best way to differentiate lineups on tonight’s seven-game slate. He is currently drawing 5% projected ownership, making him an elite contrarian pay-up option in tournaments. Tatum continues to lead the Celtics in points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game this season. In his two meetings with the Cavaliers this season, the star is averaging a double-double with 33 points and 10 rebounds per game.
Similar to Keon Johnson, Ziaire Williams has been fantastic over his last two games when he has been given extended playing time. Williams tied his season high with 37 minutes last game and contributed with a near double-double. He posted 21 points and eight rebounds while shooting 8-for-15 from the field. Williams tacked on two blocks, one steal, and one assist, accumulating 39.5 DraftKings points.
Williams has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the small forward position and is drawing close to 20% projected ownership. Williams and Johnson are the only two Nets players worth targeting in this matchup against the Rockets. They are cheap enough that the matchup does not affect them all that much. The Rockets rank fourth in defensive rating this season and are allowing less than 110 points per game.
LeBron James is coming off a massive triple-double in the Lakers road victory over the Knicks on Saturday night. The veteran superstar recorded 33 points, 12 assists, and 11 rebounds with a 41.1% usage rate. James shot 14-for-26 from the field and accumulated 68.25 DraftKings points. Since that game, the Lakers traded away Anthony Davis for Luka Doncic, which sent shockwaves across the league. Doncic will not be playing tonight, putting James’ projected usage rate at 35%, which is 5% more than any other player.
With former players Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell, and Max Christie off the floor this season, James has posted a +8.52% usage rate increase. The Lakers are 8.5-point road underdogs to the Clippers, but James is worth getting exposure to, especially being projected for less than 10% ownership on this slate.
Bam Adebayo is one of the biggest beneficiaries with Jimmy Butler sidelined. He stuffed the stat sheet last game with a near triple-double with 30 points, 12 rebounds, nine assists, three blocks, and two steals for 69.5 DraftKings points. It was Adebayo’s second game; he was one assist shy of a triple-double in his last three games. He is playing amazing recently and still costs less than $8,000 in a juicy matchup.
The Bulls are allowing a league-high 56.2 points per game, which is three more points per game than the next closest team. In this matchup, Adebayo will thrive against a weak Bulls interior defense. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position and the second-highest projected ownership on the slate. The Heat have a 115-point team total and are one of the best teams to target tonight.
Starting in his first All-Star game of his career, Karl-Anthony Towns has been the best offseason addition in the league. The Knicks’ center has averaged 24.3 points and a career-high 13.5 rebounds per game, which is the second-highest in the league. Towns has also shot an incredible 53.2% from the field and 41.9% from behind the arc. He is the perfect example of ceiling and value on this slate at his $9,400 salary.
With a 29% projected usage rate, Towns is drawing nearly 30% projected ownership tonight. The Raptors frontcourt has not been able to stop opposing players with Towns’ skill set this season. In the two games where Towns faced the Raptors, he is averaging 27.3 points, 12.7 rebounds, and five assists per game while shooting 64.3% from the field and 54.5% from downtown. This is a fantastic matchup to play Towns.
The Trail Blazers have won eight of their last nine games, with their only loss during that stretch coming to the Thunder by 10 points. A big reason for their recent success has been the pure dominance of Deandre Ayton. He is coming off a huge double-double with 25 points and 20 rebounds against the Suns, which was his fourth double-double in his last six games. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in all six games.
The Pacers are a perfect matchup for Ayton to have another ceiling performance. They rank 26th in both points allowed per game in the paint and rebounding percentage at 48.6% this season. In his only game against the Pacers frontcourt, Ayton recorded a 16-point, 12-rebound double-double while shooting 7-for-10 from the field. Due to the matchup and his recent play, Ayton is a phenomenal play in all formats.
