Thursday presents an eight-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Last night vs. the Jazz, Gilgeous-Alexander put on a show, erupting for a career-high 81.5 DraftKings points. The MVP candidate is scoring 1.6 DraftKings PPM with a 34.5% usage rate this season, and up next is a matchup with a Mavericks team that Gilgeous-Alexander has torched for 62.3 DraftKings PPG in two matchups this season. Dallas is playing their second game in two nights, and on their home floor, the Thunder sport the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (117 points).
Gilgeous-Alexander has been nearly five DraftKings PPG better on his home floor than when on the road this season, and he should surpass five-times value tonight, possibly with ease.
With Immanuel Quickley (hip) still sidelined, Mitchell should continue to start and is a viable punt in this fantastic matchup vs. the Hawks, who rank second in pace and 18th in defensive efficiency. This game’s total ranks second on the slate (234.5 points), and Mitchell has produced 21.2 DraftKings points in 26.6 minutes per game, with Quickley inactive for the last three.
While he lacks real upside, Mitchell should out produce his low salary and is an appealing way to attack this strong game setting between the Raptors and Hawks.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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Monk has been flourishing as a starter for the Kings. The Kentucky product lit the Warriors up for 46 DraftKings points last night, marking his seventh effort of at least 42 DraftKings points in his last eight starts. Monk ranks second on the Kings in usage during this timeframe (24.6%), and tonight’s meeting with the Nuggets carries the highest total on the slate (241.5 points).
Monk went off for 57.5 DraftKings when he faced the Nuggets in December, and the guard is clearly underpriced for his upside at only $7,000.
With the Warriors in desperate need of offense, Hield moved into the starting lineup last night vs. the Kings and finished with 30.25 DraftKings points across 25.2 minutes with a 21.1% usage rate. Jonathan Kuminga (ankle) and Draymond Green (calf) both missed this game and will remain out tonight and if Hield remains a starter as expected, he will be a great value play to attack in this elite spot vs. the Bulls.
Chicago ranks third in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency this season, and Hield is supplying 28.3 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has started.
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The Raptors defeated the Magic for their third win in their last five games Tuesday, and Barnes flirted with a triple-double in the victory, resulting in 50.25 DraftKings points. Quickley missed this game and with the guard sidelined this season, Barnes is leading Toronto with 45.9 DraftKings PPG (22 games), via the On/Off Tool.
The Raptors and Hawks both are top-eight teams in pace this season, and this up-tempo setting is perfect for Barnes to fill the stat sheet. Another outing over 50 DraftKings points is totally possible for Barnes in this large 234.5-point total, and he is a steal at this sub-$9,000 salary.
With the Warriors shorthanded, Wiggins stepped up last night and posted 40 DraftKings points in 37 minutes vs. the Kings. The veteran has now gone off for at least 36 DraftKings points in three of these past five games that Golden State has been without both Green and Kuminga.
Wiggins provides 1.0 DraftKings PPM with a 25% usage rate with both Green and Kuminga off the floor this season, and facing this Bulls team that ranks second in pace, Wiggins is a strong bet to exceed five-times value as one of the Warriors’ main options tonight.
Antetokounmpo hasn’t played since Sunday and he should dominate this Heat team that is without Jimmy Butler (suspension) and ranks 27th in defensive efficiency over their last three games. Antetokounmpo went off for 63.25 DraftKings points vs. the 76ers in his last start, and he is scoring 1.74 FPTS with a massive 37.2% usage rate since the Bucks moved Khris Middleton to the bench earlier this month.
This game will be in Milwaukee tonight and on his home floor this season, Antetouknmpo is amassing 63.1 FPTS per game, which is 6.6 FPTS per game better than his average on the road.
Sarr is an excellent bargain at this salary. The rookie was priced up to $6,100 on DraftKings a few weeks ago, and Sarr is in compelling form, with over 30 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Malcolm Brogdon (foot) remains unavailable, and with the high-usage veteran off the court, Sarr handles a 21% usage rate, via the On/Off Tool.
While the Clippers rank fourth in defensive efficiency, they are playing their second game in two nights and could be depleted after almost all of their key players were inactive Wednesday vs. the Celtics. Nonetheless, Sarr is underpriced and is one of the best power forward values on the board.
Jokic is on the heels of a 72.75 DraftKings point performance vs. the 76ers on Tuesday, marking his fourth triple-double in a row. Up next for the superstar is a matchup with a Kings team that ranks sixth in pace and is on the second leg of a back-to-back. This game’s total is the highest on the slate (241.25 points), and no team carries a larger implied team total than the Nuggets (124.25 points).
Jokic is amassing an absurd 1.9 FPTS per minute this season and in this elite spot on his home floor tonight, the center should finish as the slate’s top scorer, possibly by a large amount of fantasy points. Jokic has played behind an implied team total of at least 120 points at home three times this season, and the three-time MVP has exposed his opponents for 72.3 DraftKings PPG in those contests, via the Trends Tool.
Ware has been making a huge impact off the bench for the Heat, so much so that Miami’s coaching staff moved the rookie into the starting five Tuesday vs. the Trail Blazers. With the starting role, Ware didn’t disappoint, with 45.25 DraftKings points across a team-high 38.3 minutes. He has now topped 40 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is scoring 1.2 DraftKings PPM this season. Ware is a seven-footer who is very active on the glass and can stretch the floor with his outside shot.
With Butler out tonight due to a team suspension, Ware should remain a starter, and if that is the case, he will be a must-play, regardless of this being a tough matchup against a Bucks defense that ranks eighth in efficiency. In our ShotQuality projections, Ware is easily the No.1 value on the slate, and he has a ceiling of around 45 DraftKings points.
