DraftKings’ main slate for Thursday features all six games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Reaves is a great spend with Anthony Davis no longer with the Lakers. Reaves has made six starts without Davis this season, and Reaves has produced 43.7 DraftKings PPG in those tilts. With Davis off the court this season, Reaves scores 1.2 DraftKings PPM with a 27.1% usage rate, which is a 3.9 percentage point lift from his season average, via the On/Off Tool.
The Warriors rank ninth in defensive efficiency, but they are playing their second game in two nights and will be very shorthanded after the blockbuster trade to acquire Jimmy Butler on Wednesday. The veteran won’t be available tonight, and Golden State lost three players in the deal, most notably Andrew Wiggins. With a skeleton staff following the trade last night, the Warriors allowed a lowly Jazz team to score 131 points. This should be a very friendly matchup for the Lakers, and Reaves should approach 50 DraftKings points in this spot.
Speaking of the shorthanded Warriors, Podziemski started last night with Wiggins and Dennis Schroder traded, and Podziemski was excellent with the starting role, delivering 45.5 DraftKings points across 39 minutes. This minutes total was a team high and also set a season high for Podziemski. The guard will be forced to see huge playing time again tonight, and with Wiggins and Schroder off the court this season, Podziemski is amassing 1.0 DraftKings PPM.
The 21-year-old has surpassed 40 DraftKings points in each of the past two games he has cracked the 30-minute mark, and Podziemski is a core play at this low salary that is far too low for his expected role.
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While this a tough matchup against a Rockets defense that ranks third in efficiency, Edwards still brings a huge ceiling with Julius Randle (adductor) sidelined. Making his first start of the season without Randle, Edwards exploded for 69.25 DraftKings points vs. the Bulls last night.
Randle ranks second only to Edwards in usage for the Timberwolves this season, and with Randle off the floor, Edwards’ usage rises 2.8 percentage points to 34.7%, and he supplies 1.3 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. Edwards may get overlooked given this matchup and is an elite GPP play that has slate-winning upside.
Hield is another excellent value play from the shorthanded Warriors. After the Butler deal last night, Hield rejoined Golden State’s starting lineup and finished with 30.75 DraftKings points in 31 minutes vs. the Jazz.
The sharpshooter sees the biggest bump in production with Wiggins and Schroder off the floor, with Hield amassing 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 22% usage rate in this situation. Hield should see over 30 minutes again tonight and effortlessly exceed five times value as one of the Warriors’ primary scorers.
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Last night, Wagner stepped up and scored 44.25 DraftKings points, leading the Magic to a convincing 19-point victory over the Kings. The wing has recorded at least 43 DraftKings points in four of his last six starts, and not only do the Nuggets rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, but they are on the second night of a back-to-back as well.
Wagner is leading the Magic with 1.3 DraftKings PPM this season and is a contrarian spend that has a ceiling over 50 DraftKings points in our ShotQuality projections.
Opposite of Wagner, Braun is underpriced for his current role sans Russell Westbrook (hamstring). With the guard out for the last three, Braun has started and produced 40.2 DraftKings points in 36.1 minutes per game.
Braun is supplying 0.9 DraftKings PPM with Westbrook off the floor, and while this is a difficult matchup against a Magic defense that ranks second in efficiency, Orlando is playing their second game in two nights, and Braun would be a strong target no matter the matchup at this cheap price tag that is far too low for his current role as a starter for the Nuggets. For the last 10 times he has received 30 minutes or more, Braun is averaging 35 DraftKings PPG.
With Luka Doncic (calf) not ready to make his Lakers debut tonight and Davis now in Dallas, James is an elite high-end value. The four-time NBA champion is averaging 56.6 DraftKings PPG with Davis inactive this season (six games). Let’s also not forget Los Angeles also traded D’Angelo Russell to the Nets a few weeks ago, and with him and Davis off the court this season, James’ usage and assist rates increase 4.6 and 2.3 percentage points, respectively, lifting him to 1.52 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
As noted above, the shorthanded Warriors should be a mess defensively playing their second game in two nights, and James has the potential for over 60 DraftKings points in this spot. Despite the hefty salary, James is the No. 2 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections, only trailing Podziemski.
Regardless that he is facing a Rockets defense that ranks third in efficiency, Reid is a core play at this reasonable price tag that is simply too low for life without Randle. Reid has started in place of Randle for the last two and has unsurprisingly flourished, scoring 47.25 DraftKings points vs. the Kings and 52.5 DraftKings points vs. the Bulls. Reid has led the Timberwolves with 38 minutes per game during this time, which is a massive jump from the 25.8 minutes per game he is averaging this season.
While he has come off the bench for the last two years, Reid is without question a starting-caliber player who is one of the most underrated talents in the NBA. This upcoming stretch with Randle sidelined is going to show that Reid is a better fit as Minnesota’s starting power forward than Randle, and Reid should exceed 40 DraftKings points tonight, despite the tough matchup vs. Houston. With Randle off the court this season, Reid is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM.
Jokic is in incredible form, and we shouldn’t be scared of this matchup with the Magic. Orlando ranks 20th in defensive rating over their last 10 games, and they are on the second of a back-to-back set. Jokic has generated 74.6 DraftKings PPG in these past three with Westbrook sidelined. The guard remains out tonight, and while this is also Jokic’s second game in two nights, he has been dominant in this situation this season, scoring 71.4 DraftKings PPG when on the second leg of a back-to-back (eight games).
While James is a close second, Jokic is still the No. 1 play on the slate, and pairing the two superstars in the same lineup is possible with a plethora of appealing punt plays available tonight.
Looney hasn’t been starting, but the veteran has been operating as the Warriors primary center. Looney is averaging 21.5 minutes per game in his last five, and the big man has recorded at least 26 DraftKings points in four of these games. With the Warriors very understaffed after the Butler trade, Looney should continue to see 20+ minutes tonight, and his current salary doesn’t reflect that type of role.
This season, Looney is scoring 1.2 DraftKings PPM, and he is averaging 26.1 DraftKings for the 15 times he has logged over 20 minutes.
