On the schedule for Thursday is a five-game slate on DraftKings. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Doncic is finally healthy again and thriving with the Lakers. The superstar has scored 68 and 69.75 DraftKings points in his past two starts, and with Los Angeles, Doncic is leading the team with a 32% usage rate and an elite 1.7 DraftKings PPM. Tonight, the guard faces a Timberwolves defense that ranks seventh in efficiency, but they are dealing with many key injuries, most notably Rudy Gobert (out, back), and Doncic is simply underpriced at only $11,000.
His salary approached $12,000 earlier this season, and Doncic is one of the best values on the slate despite being the most lucrative option available.
With Bobby Portis suspended, Green has seen the biggest boost in playing time for the Bucks. Since the All-Star break, the 25-year-old has ranked fourth on the team with 32.6 minutes per game, which has resulted in 18.6 DraftKings PPG for Green. The wing is knocking down 2.8 three-pointers per game during this span, and this is a plus spot for Green against the Nuggets, who rank 22nd in defensive efficiency and are allowing the fifth-most made three-pointers this season.
This game presents the highest total on the slate (240.5 points), and Green is a viable, cheap way to attack this setting that has the potential for over 20 DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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Edwards (calf) is questionable tonight, but the All-Star has played through questionable tags regularly this season, and if he suits up as expected, Edwards will have a huge ceiling against the Lakers. On top of Gobert, Julius Randle (groin) is out, and in the four starts Edwards has made without these two big men this season, he is producing 50.8 DraftKings PPG with a 32.8% usage rate, via the On/Off Tool.
Edwards could come with low ownership given the questionable tag, and he has slate-winning upside if he plays.
Hawkins has topped 20 DraftKings points in four of his last eight games, and he should see an expanded role tonight with Bruce Brown and Kelly Olynyk both being rested. These two veterans have been rotational players since coming over in the Brandon Ingram to Toronto trade, and our ShotQuality projections are slating Hawkins for 25 minutes tonight against this Suns defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency.
Hawkins is amassing 0.8 DraftKings PPM with a 21.2% usage rate this season, and he should exceed 20 DraftKings points in this large 236.5-point total, which ranks second on the slate.
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Murphy’s salary has dropped under $8,000 on DraftKings for the first time in nine games, and he is a stellar value at only $7,900. This month, Murphy is scoring 42.7 DraftKings points in 36.9 minutes per game, both of which are team highs. The sharpshooter is handling a 25.4% usage rate during this time and should flourish against this putrid Suns defense that ranks 27th in efficiency this season.
In our ShotQuality projections, Murphy has a ceiling over 60 DraftKings points and is a top-five on the slate.
With the Suns struggling mightily, they moved Beal back into the starting lineup three games ago and the shooting guard has been excellent since with 44.75 DraftKings points in a team-high 40.8 minutes per game. During this stretch, Beal has garnered a 22% usage rate, and he has been lights out from distance, shooting 53.3% on three-pointers.
Facing a Pelicans defense that ranks 28th in efficiency and is allowing the third-most made three-pointers this season, Beal should cruise past five times value and is a tough fade at this sub-$7,000 salary.
Similar to Doncic, Antetokounmpo is healthy again after dealing with a calf injury, and his salary has yet to fully adjust to the forward being back to full strength. After being limited for a few games, Antetokounmpo has seen over 30 minutes in back-to-back games, which has resulted in 58 DraftKings points vs. the Rockets and 53.5 DraftKings points vs. the Heat. Both these clubs rank inside the top 12 in defensive efficiency this season, and Antetokounmpo is in a much easier spot tonight against the Nuggets.
Denver ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency, and this game carries the highest total on the slate (240.5 points). Leading the NBA with a 36.8% usage rate, Antetokounmpo is producing 1.7 DraftKings PPM this season, and he is vastly underpriced for the type of upside he brings in this marquee matchup with the Nuggets. In totals of 235 points or higher this season, Antetokounmpo is providing 62.3 DraftKings PPG (six games), via the Trends Tool.
If Bol draws his second straight start, the forward will be a core play at this cheap price tag. With the Suns dropping eight of their last 10 games, they inserted Bol into the starting lineup Tuesday vs. the Grizzlies, and he finished with 39 DraftKings points across 31 minutes. Bol is amassing 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 22% usage rate this season, and he should see around 30 minutes again if he remains a starter.
This is a sensational matchup with the Pelicans ranking 28th in defensive efficiency, and when he has logged over 20 minutes this season, Bol is generating 36.5 DraftKings PPG (five games).
With Gobert and Randle both out, Reid is an elite option. Starting in place of Randle, Reid has produced 48.1 DraftKings points in 37.2 minutes per game in his last five. With both Randle and Gobert off the floor this season, Reid is scoring 1.3 DraftKings PPM with a 24.2% usage rate, which is a 2.4 percentage point increase from his season average, via the On/Off Tool.
The Lakers lack a strong interior defensive presence with Anthony Davis now with the Mavericks, and Reid should score a minimum of 40 DraftKings points tonight.
After being limited for an extended period with a calf injury, Gordon is back to full strength following the All-Star break. In his first three starts after the week off, Gordon is averaging 35.1 DraftKings points in 30.3 minutes per game with a 22.3% usage rate, which is a massive difference from the 17.6% usage rate he was seeing before the All-Star break.
The Bucks rank 10th in defensive efficiency, but the Nuggets still boast the second-highest implied team total on the slate (121.75 points). Gordon has topped 30 DraftKings points in four of the last five games he has played behind an implied team total of at least 120 points, and he is a tremendous value at this $5,300 salary, which is likely the cheapest we will see him on DraftKings for a while.
