For the final night before the All-Star break, there is a five-game slate to attack Thursday. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
With the Mavericks shorthanded, Irving is logging 41.4 minutes per game in his last five starts, which has resulted in 47.3 DraftKings PPG, including three efforts over 50 DraftKings points. Dallas just traded away Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis (adductor), but the big man is out for a few weeks. Furthermore, Daniel Gafford (knee) and PJ Washington (ankle) are sidelined. With Doncic, Davis, Gafford, and Washington off the floor this season, Irving is leading the Mavericks with 1.3 DraftKings PPM and a 32.5% usage rate, which is a 5.6 percentage point increase from his season average, via the On/Off Tool.
The Heat rank 12th in defensive efficiency, but they are playing their second game in two nights, and Irving is underpriced for his current role. The guard has 50 DraftKings points upside and is one of the best spends on the slate.
Alvarado gets to face the Kings again tonight after exposing them for 42.75 DraftKings points across 32 minutes Wednesday. The guard has started in three straight games with Dejounte Murray (Achilles) sidelined, and Alvarado has finished with at least 27 DraftKings points in two of these three starts. Murray is out for the season, and the Pelicans will likely rest Zion Williamson tonight, as the forward played last night and has only competed in both legs of a back-to-back set one time this season. In this situation, Alvarado should see above 30 minutes for tonight’s rematch with Sacramento, putting him in a prime position to outproduce his salary in this slate-high total (235.5 points).
The Kings rank 27th in defensive rating over their last 10 games, and with Murray, Williamson, and Brandon Ingram (traded to the Raptors) off the court this season, Alvarado is generating 1.2 DraftKings PPM. In our ShotQuality projections, Alvarado is the No. 1 value on the slate.
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While Murphy was a letdown in this matchup last night with only 32.5 DraftKings points, we need to have a short memory and go right back to the wing for tonight’s rematch with the Kings. Last night was a rare occasion that Murphy struggled with his outside shot, going 1-for-6 from beyond the arc, and he should bounce back tonight with Williamson likely to be rested. Murphy is shooting an elite 48.6% on three-pointers this month, and before last night, he had scored at least 40 DraftKings points in six straight games, including a 42 DraftKings point performance vs. Sacramento.
Murphy is amassing 1.3 DraftKings PPM with a 30% usage rate with Williamson, Murray, and Ingram off the court this season, and Murphy should get back on track with over 40 DraftKings points tonight. This game carries a slate-high total of 235.5 points, and in totals of 235 points or greater this season, Murphy is averaging 45 DraftKings PPG (eight games), via the Trends Tool.
Dunn started over Derrick Jones Jr. last night, and Dunn seized the opportunity, scoring 36.75 DraftKings points in 20.6 minutes vs. the Grizzlies. Considering the Clippers won this game by 14 points and Dunn finished in a tie for the highest plus/minus on the team, he should continue to start Thursday. Plus, with this being Los Angeles’ second game in two nights, Kawhi Leonard should be rested tonight after playing a season-high 33.5 minutes Wednesday.
Our ShotQuality projections reflect Leonard being out, and as a result, Dunn is slated for 26 minutes of work against this Jazz defense that ranks dead last in efficiency this season. The former lottery pick is scoring 0.8 DraftKings PPM with Leonard off the floor this season, and Dunn should effortlessly exceed five times value. For the last five times he has logged over 25 minutes, Dunn is supplying 21.6 DraftKings PPG.
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Powell is underpriced for the likely event of Leonard being rested. In the 28 starts Powell has made without Leonard this season, Powell is producing 34.8 DraftKings PPG with a 28.5% usage rate. This is a 1.3 percentage point lift from his average, and when Powell last faced the Jazz without Leonard, Powell posted 39.5 DraftKings points.
Utah ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, and Powell should approach 40 DraftKings points with the Clippers carrying the second-highest implied team total on the slate (117.75 points).
After thriving as a bench player, Christie moved into the Mavericks’ starting lineup last night and delivered 30.25 DraftKings points across 39 minutes vs. the Warriors. Following this outing, Christie has now scored over 30 DraftKings points in each of his five games with Dallas, and he should see close to 40 minutes again tonight in this tight 1.5-point spread vs. the Heat.
Miami isn’t an ideal matchup, but Christie is far too cheap for the type of volume he will garner tonight, and he is a safe target for all formats. In a Mavericks’ uniform, Christie is scoring 0.94 DraftKings PPM with a 19.3% usage rate.
Butler is enjoying his new home with the Warriors. The veteran has scored 47.75 and 43.25 DraftKings points in his last two starts, and Butler is amassing 1.4 DraftKings PPM with a 26.4% usage rate since joining Golden State.
Despite the tough matchup vs. the Rockets, who rank third in defensive efficiency, Butler has a strong chance to outproduce this $8,000 salary, which is still too low for his role and production with the Warriors.
With the Mavericks extremely depleted up front, Marshall is averaging 28.5 DraftKings points in 27.2 minutes per game in his last five. While not a natural big man, Marshall has the size and strength to be used as a center in small-ball lineups, and he should see another large workload tonight with Dallas continuing to be shorthanded.
Marshall is scoring 1.0 DraftKings PPM with Doncic, Davis, Gafford, and Washington off the floor this season—via the On/Off Tool—and Marshall should be able to grind out over five times value tonight, despite the subpar matchup with the Heat.
Dabonis has exposed the Pelicans for 55.1 DraftKings PPG this season (three games), and he is a terrific spend at less than $10,000 tonight. New Orleans ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, and their main weakness is protecting the paint, with them allowing the second-most points in the paint and third-most rebounds this season. Evident from Sabonis’ results against the Pelicans this season, this is a perfect spot for the versatile big man, and he should flourish with the Kings boasting the highest implied team total on the slate (122 points).
Sacramento has seen an implied team total of 120 points or more seven times this season, and Sabonis is scoring 50.6 DraftKings PPG on those occasions, via the Trends Tool.
Center severely lacks appealing cheap options tonight, and Green is one of the best affordable targets. The veteran stuffed the stat sheet last night with 35.25 DraftKings points vs. the Mavericks, and Green is now scoring 31.2 DraftKings PPG in these last three games with Butler as a member of the Warriors.
Green generates 0.9 DraftKings PPM with Butler on the floor, and Green posted 33.75 DraftKings points in his first meeting of the season with the Rockets in early November. Green’s defense is needed in this matchup against Alperen Sengun, and Green is a contrarian play that could eclipse 30 DraftKings points tonight.
