Welcome to Opening Night in the NBA! We have a fantastic two-game slate to get our feet wet into this NBA season. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Luka Doncic is leading the way in our model with the highest ceiling projection for tonight’s nine-game slate. He has had a relatively hot start to his season, averaging just over 60 DraftKings points throughout his first two games. Doncic has attempted 25 field goals in back-to-back games with a 35.1% usage rate. He has scored a league-high 34 points per game, and this Jazz matchup sets up for a ceiling performance.
The Mavericks are double-digit home favorites, implied for a slate-high 121.75 points. It has only been two games, but the Jazz are picking up right where they left off last season when they had the worst defensive rating in the league. They are currently ranked 28th and are allowing 126.5 points per game, which trails only the Wizards. This is an exploitable matchup for one of the best players in the league.
Miles McBride had a fantastic start to the season, pouring in 22 points and shooting 8-for-10 from the field and 4-for-5 from behind the arc. His most recent game was cut a little short due to an injury, but he is probable for tonight’s action. McBride could also enter the starting lineup if Josh Hart is unable to play. He is questionable, so make sure to monitor his status. That would make McBride an even better option.
Priced at only $4,300 with point guard and shooting guard eligibility, McBride is one of the best values on the slate. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus and his projections will increase if he is going to get starter’s minutes. The Cavaliers have allowed their opponents to shoot 37.7% from behind the arc to start the season, which bodes well for the Knicks’ sharpshooter. McBride is a great play to save salary.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
DraftKings has Jamal Murray’s price at a fantastic value – $7,100 for a player of his caliber is way too cheap. Murray leads the slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus by a wide margin. His cheap price tag is resulting in an absurd amount of projected ownership. Murray is the only player with a projected ownership above 30% and he is projected for 45% ownership. He is a staple in cash games and a great tournament option.
The Nuggets are off to an 0-2 start but are nearly double-digit road favorites to get back on track against the Raptors tonight. Murray is another guard with dual eligibility, which makes him easy to fit in all lineup builds. He is projected to play 36 minutes with a 27.2% usage rate. Murray is shooting a career-high 45.5% from behind the arc and the Raptors have been susceptible to outside shooting so far this season.
With guards Tre Jones and Devin Vassell out for the Spurs, 19-year-old rookie Stephon Castle is projected to play 26 minutes tonight. He played 27 minutes last game in this same matchup and sets up well to be another valuable target on this slate. Castle has recorded exactly 18.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in both games. His price tag has come up, but not enough.
Castle is drawing the third-most projected ownership at the guard position behind Murray and McBride. The Spurs are 2.5-point home underdogs despite beating the Rockets by three points in their meeting on Saturday. Expect another close game between these two teams. The rookie closed the game out Saturday, making three free throws in the final 17 seconds. The Spurs have no fear of playing him in big moments.
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No player has had a better start to the season than Jayson Tatum. The Celtics are 3-0, and Tatum is leading the team in points and assists per game. He is averaging a career-high 33 points per game while shooting 54.7% from the field and 48.6% from behind the arc. Tatum has attempted double-digit 3-pointers in every game and has posted a double-double in two of his three games played. He is the current MVP.
Tatum’s salary has been boosted by $700 since opening night, but it is deserving based on how well he has been playing. From a viewing perspective, this matchup between the Celtics and Bucks is going to be a must watch. However, the line is greatly favoring the home team. The Celtics are nearly double-digit home favorites, implied for 121 points. Tatum is a fantastic pay-up option with only 12% projected ownership.
Another value play who has benefited from teammates’ injuries is Bilal Coulibaly. The second-year pro is starting to burst onto the scene in Washington. He is averaging 15.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game while shooting 55.6% from the field and 44.4% from behind the arc. Coulibaly scored 23 points last game against a legit Cavaliers defense and is in a great spot for another ceiling performance tonight.
The Wizards will more than likely be competing for the #1 overall pick again this season. They are already 0-2 to start the season and are 7.5-point road underdogs against the Hawks tonight. This is a matchup they can compete in due to the Hawks’ 25th-ranked defensive rating. Priced under $5,000, Coulibaly is a fantastic value play with shooting guard and small forward eligibility. He has proven to be a strong play.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has recorded a double-double in all three games to start the season but is still being overlooked in this matchup. The Celtics have an incredible defense, but they also do not have a rim protector with Kristaps Porzingis still sidelined. They will have no match for Giannis at the rim. Coming in at less than 5% projected ownership, Giannis is the best contrarian pay-up option on the slate tonight.
Khris Middleton has yet to play a game for the Bucks this season and will likely be out for this matchup. With Middleton off the floor last season, Giannis led the Bucks with a 33.7% usage rate. In order for the Bucks to keep this game competitive, they will need a monster performance from Giannis. He makes for an easy way to differentiate lineups. I would make it a priority in tournaments to get overweight Giannis.
Newly acquired power forward Tobias Harris has gotten off to a slow start with the Pistons. He is shooting 33.3% from the field and 21.4% from downtown, averaging only 10.3 points per game. Harris did finally contribute on the glass last game, pulling down 11 rebounds, but failed to score double-digit points to complete the double-double. It has not been pretty, but Harris does have the upside to be valuable.
Harris has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position tonight and is drawing just over 20% projected ownership. The Pistons need offense any way they can get it. They signed several veterans this offseason and are not yet getting the production that they had hoped for. The Pistons are implied for a slate-low 105.5 points against the Heat, but Harris is too cheap for his projected output.
Despite the Nuggets being 0-2, it has not been at the fault of Nikola Jokic. The big man is yet again leading the team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals this season. Jokic had a triple-double in the season opener and a 41-point performance last game. He has recorded at least 60 DraftKings points in both games and has the second-highest projected ceiling behind Luka Doncic for this nine-game slate.
The Raptors rank 24th in defensive rating but first in rebounding percentage this season. However, Raptors center Jakob Poeltl will have his hands full with Jokic tonight. The matchup-proof center is only drawing 12% projected ownership. In a game where the Nuggets should get their first victory of the season, Jokic will likely flirt with another triple-double. He can even be paired with Jamal Murray in lineups.
Coming in with the highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position and the third-highest on the slate is Mavericks’ center Dereck Lively. Only projected for 25 minutes, Lively is a very active center when he is on the court. He has hauled down 11 rebounds in back-to-back games and is averaging 10 points per game. The second-year pro has come off the bench to start the season but is still being very productive.
The best part about the Lively play is this elite matchup against the Jazz frontcourt. The Jazz allowed 51.8 points per game in the paint last season and are on a similar path this season. Getting a double-double at $5,100 is going to pay off for Lively in a big way. He is second at the position in projected ownership and pairs perfectly with his point guard Luka Doncic. Lively is a cheap way to get exposure to the Mavericks.
