The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
The point guard position is flooded with top-tier talent on tonight’s eight-game slate. However, Trae Young is playing at an elite level recently and has the highest projected ceiling at this position. Not only is Young scoring 27 points a night, but he leads the league in assists with 11.7 per game and is averaging a career-high five rebounds per game. Young has posted a double-double in six of his seven games played.
The Hawks are the biggest underdogs on the slate against the reigning champions tonight. However, this showdown has the highest projected total on the slate at 234 points. Expect a flurry of points scored, with the Hawks ranking fourth in pace this season. With Dejounte Murray out of town and Bogdan Bogdanovic still out, Young has to do it all for this Hawks team. His minutes and usage rate projections are sky-high.
With a slate-high 122.25 implied point total, the Celtics are going to be the most popular team to target. Both Kristaps Porzingis and Jaylen Brown are out for this game, which is why four of the top five players with the highest projected Plus/Minus are on the Celtics. With Porzingis and Brown off the floor last year, Pritchard led the team in minutes and averaged a +3.12% usage rate and +5.95 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Pritchard will continue to come off the bench but is projected to play around 28 minutes and have a 23% usage rate. The combo guard has dual eligibility and is easy to fit into all lineup builds with his $5,200 salary. Not only are Porzingis and Brown out, but this is a superb matchup for the Celtics. The Hawks rank 28th in defensive rating and are allowing 121.7 points per game, which is the third-highest in the league.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
Playing at the second-fastest pace in the league, the Wizards are in the second-highest total game on the slate. In his second year on the Wizards, Jordan Poole is starting to find his groove. The sharpshooter is averaging a career-high 22.2 points per game while shooting 46.2% from the field and 51.2% from behind the arc. Poole is also contributing in the peripheral department with a career-high 5.4 assists per game.
Poole will get a revenge matchup against his former them – the Golden State Warriors. He struggled last season in this spot, but given how well Poole has played recently, expect a strong performance from the Wizards’ top option. The Wizards are also playing without Kyle Kuzma and Malcolm Brogdon, which will force Poole to be even more aggressive. At $7,800 Poole has the highest projected ceiling at this position.
Another Celtics value guard to get exposure to is Derrick White. He is third on the Celtics in scoring with his career-high 18.7 points per game. White is shooting career-best numbers across the board and will benefit greatly without Porzingis and Brown on the floor. Last season, he led the Celtics with a +8.11% usage rate and a +9.52 DraftKings Plus/Minus. White is the best mid-range plays on the slate tonight.
Due to the Hawks’ inept defense and White’s increased usage rate and production, this is a phenomenal spot for a $6,700 dual-guard option. In White’s last game without the two Celtics starters, he nearly had a double-double with 18 points and eight rebounds. The Hawks are also a poor rebounding team, so White has the potential to capture that elusive double-double and be the best value on this eight-game slate.
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Jayson Tatum’s 2024 campaign is off to an incredible start, averaging a career-high 30.3 points per game and shooting 48.3% from the field. He has scored 25+ points in all but one game this season. Despite being $10,000, Tatum has the fifth-highest projected Plus/Minus at the forward position tonight proving how strong of a pay-up option he is. Tatum has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in six of his seven games.
Now playing without Porzingis and Brown, Tatum’s projections look even better tonight. There are four players who have a five-figure price tag on this eight-game slate, but none look better than Tatum. The matchup and increased usage will draw everyone to the versatile forward. He has the second-highest projected ceiling and by far the highest projected Plus/Minus among the four elite pay-up options.
Basically, the only non-Celtics player who is popping in our models for being an elite value play is the Wizards’ small forward, Kyshawn George. The rookie from Miami has started each of the past two games and is projected to draw another start and play around 32 minutes. George has shot the ball poorly at 28.6%, but is very active on the floor filling up the stat sheet in a variety of ways which makes him a great value.
George has put together a couple of massive defensive performances for the Wizards. In three of his five games this season, George has at least three steals or blocks which also increases his floor on DraftKings. Despite shooting so poorly, George is also not afraid to let it fly. He is averaging 4.4 3-point attempts per game. If his shot falls tonight against the Warriors, George will easily pay off his cheap salary of $3,900.
The biggest news on the entire slate is the status of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. He has been playing through a tendinitis injury, but is listed questionable for tonight’s game. If Giannis were to sit, Damian Lillard would catapult to one of the best plays on the slate after his 41-point performance last game. Giannis also dominated last game with 34 points, 16 rebounds, and nine assists for 71 DraftKings points. In the same matchup against the Cavaliers, it would be impossible to ignore Giannis if he plays.
The Bucks surprisingly have the second-worst record in the league at 1-5, while the Cavaliers are a perfect 7-0 to start the season. Nearing desperation mode, the Bucks need a win and that would require Giannis having to play. Even if Giannis plays, he will have very low ownership which is intriguing for tournaments.
Knicks’ forward Josh Hart has put together four consecutive games with a positive Plus/Minus. The only game he failed was in the season opener when the Knicks got demolished by the Celtics 132-109. Hart only played 25 minutes in that matchup. He has played 37 or more minutes and every game since and been a major contributor to the Knicks’ averaging 38.75 DraftKings points per game during that time.
Hart is averaging a double-double for the first time in his career with 14.2 points and 10 rebounds per game, while shooting 55.3% from the field. Given his playing time and ability to flirt with triple-doubles, Hart is projected for the fourth-highest ownership on the slate at 26%. Similar to Derrick White, Hart is a fantastic mid-range value option. He is also a great way to get exposure to the Knicks in this spot tonight.
Leading the slate with the highest projected ceiling is Lakers’ center Anthony Davis. Averaging a league and career-high 31.8 points per game, Davis has been the most impactful player in the league thus far. Not only is he scoring at will, but he is also averaging 12 rebounds per game and shooting a career-best 57.3% from the field. With 2.0 blocks and 1.8 steals per game, Davis is literally doing it all for the Lakers.
The Pistons’ center Jalen Duren has been a strong defender in his third year as a pro. Through their first seven games, the Pistons are allowing only 43.7 points per game in the paint and rank second in the league with a 53.8% rebounding percentage. Despite this being a more difficult matchup, Davis is still a strong pay-up option in all formats given how well he has played this season and having a 31.6% usage rate. The Lakers are also implied for 118 points and are 7.5-point road favorites against the 2-5 Pistons.
Celtics’ center Luke Kornet has started in each of the last two games and has yet to miss a shot during that time. He is a perfect 8-for-8 from the field and 8-for-9 from the free throw line. Kornet scored 19 points and 33.5 DraftKings points last game against the Hornets and is now set up for another great matchup against the Hawks’ frontcourt who ranks 21st in rebounding percentage this season at 48.8%.
Kornet is projected to be the most popular player on the slate at 33%. He also has the highest projected Plus/Minus by a wide margin. With the center position being relatively weak on this eight-game slate, Kornet is a staple in cash games and a great value in tournaments. Priced just below $4,000, Kornet is a cheap way to get exposure to the Celtics’ high team total. He is simply the best value on this slate tonight.
