The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Despite being the fifth-highest priced point guard, Kyrie Irving has the second-highest projected ceiling. In the 29 games that Irving has played without Luka Doncic this season, he is averaging 25.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 43.4 DraftKings points per game. Irving’s efficiency has plummeted, but his usage rate has jumped to 29% along with every other statistic. Since Doncic was traded away, Irving has been more impressive, averaging 30.7 points and 50.3 DraftKings points per game in his last seven games.
The Mavericks have lost three of their last four games and are looking to bounce back with a home matchup against the Kings. They have lost both games against the Kings this season and are 1.5-point home underdogs tonight. In a closely projected game, Irving stands out even more as an elite pay-up option. He leads the entire slate in projected usage rate at 36.6% and ranks fifth in projected Plus/Minus.
The Detroit Pistons have won nine of their last 10 games and are currently sixth in the Eastern Conference standings and one game back of hosting a home playoff series. Cade Cunningham has been fantastic, but looking to save salary, Dennis Schroder is a cheap way to get exposure to this Pistons offense that has the third-highest team total at 120.75 points. They are nine-point road favorites against the Utah Jazz.
Over his last four games, Schroder is starting to find his groove with his new team. He is averaging 9.5 points, 5.8 assists, and 24.1 DraftKings points per game during that time. The Jazz are one of the best matchups for opposing guards. They rank sixth in pace and last in defensive rating this year. Schroder is projected to play 24 minutes off the bench and has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
Newly acquired Zach LaVine has picked up right where he left off with the Bulls and is averaging 22.6 points per game, while shooting 49.1% from the field with the Kings. With De’Aaron Fox traded and Domantas Sabonis out at least for the next week, LaVine will need to step up in the scoring department. With those two off the floor, LaVine has a +9.29 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 109 minutes with the Kings.
The Mavericks have so many injuries to their frontcourt, which makes scoring at the rim much easier lately. They have allowed 53.3 points per game in the paint over their last three games and 50.2 total per game this season, ranking tied for the fifth-highest in the league. LaVine is capable of scoring at all three levels, making him a strong pay-up option at the shooting guard position, especially priced under $8,000.
Leading the way in projected Plus/Minus is Heat guard Alec Burks. It remains to be seen if he will enter the starting lineup or not, but Burks is projected to play 26 minutes and be the best value on the slate. He has been given 18+ minutes in seven of his last nine games and has a positive Plus/Minus in each contest. In those two games where he had a dud, Burks only played 11 total minutes. With his recent play, it is difficult to keep Burks off the floor. He has scored double-digit points in five of his last eight games.
Not only is Burks a superb pay-down option, but this matchup is incredible. The Wizards still hold the worst record in the league and rank dead last in net rating at -12.1 and 28th in defensive rating at 117.8 per game. Burks is a boom-or-bust value play, but if he is getting 20+ minutes, he is impossible to ignore.
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After sitting out last game due to back spasms, Jimmy Butler is probable for tonight’s game against the Hornets. Butler leads all small forwards in projected ceiling and has been a valuable addition to the Warriors. In the eight games that Butler has played, the Warriors are 7-1, and they are 12.5-point road favorites tonight. His last two games have been duds, but in his first six games, Butler averaged 20 points per game, while shooting 46.7% from the field and a ridiculous 49-for-55 from the free-throw line.
The Hornets do not pose much of a threat despite playing at home. The Warriors just beat them by 36 points less than a week ago and will likely take care of business again tonight. With small and power forward eligibility, Butler is easy to fit into any lineup build and is my preferred Warriors player to target.
Malik Beasley is another veteran that has stepped up for the Pistons. He and Dennis Schroder have been a lethal one-two combo in the Pistons second unit. Most of Beasley’s production comes from scoring the ball, specifically with his perimeter shooting. Over 70% of his field goal attempts have come from behind the arc, where he is shooting a career-high 42.7%. He ranks third in the league, making four 3-pointers per game behind Stephen Curry and Anthony Edwards. Beasley has been a sharpshooter.
This matchup sets up perfectly for a Beasley ceiling performance. The Jazz are allowing a league-high 40.9 3-point attempts per game while their opponents are shooting 36% from distance. In his only matchup against the Jazz this year, Beasley shot 9-for-26 from the field and 7-for-19 from downtown for 26 points.
The biggest news on this seven-game slate is the status of Ja Morant. He missed the last game with a shoulder injury and is questionable for tonight’s action. If Morant is unable to play, that will provide a significant boost to Jaren Jackson Jr. Already having a career year, Jackson Jr.’s usage rate increases a team-high +4.36% when Morant is off the floor (per our Trends tool). With Morant unable to play last game, Jackson Jr. erupted for 42 points while shooting 15-for-25 from the field and 5-for-8 from deep.
This Grizzlies and Hawks matchup is the best game environment to target. The total is a slate-high 253.5 points with the Grizzlies implied for 131.75 points. A ton of ownership will flock to this matchup. If Morant is unable to play, Jackson Jr. will become a priority pay-up option at his $8,000 salary and dual eligibility.
Role player Naji Marshall has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Mavericks’ recent injuries. Anthony Davis, PJ Washington, Dereck Lively, Daniel Gafford, and Caleb Martin are all out, which has forced Marshall to play 30+ minutes a game. He has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate with dual forward eligibility. Marshall is projected to play 32 minutes tonight and be a great value option.
Playing 30+ minutes regularly now, Marshall picks up fantasy points in a variety of ways. In his first season with the Mavericks, Marshall is averaging a career-high 11 points per game while shooting a career-best 49.3% from the field. He has been able to fill up the stat sheet recently and accumulated a season-high four steals last game. Marshall is a better cash-game play than tournaments due to his consistency.
Bam Adebayo has posted back-to-back positive Plus/Minus games and will draw a great matchup against the Wizards frontcourt. Adebayo’s efficiency has taken a hit this season, but he has shot 69% from the field in his last three games. Similar to Jackson Jr., Adebayo has power forward and center eligibility, making it easy to fit him into any format. On this slate, $8,400 feels like a bargain against a Wizards team that ranks 29th in rebounding percentage at 48.3%. Adebayo should feast yet again in this spot tonight.
In his one game against the Wizards this season, Adebayo dominated the paint with 32 points and 14 rebounds. He shot 12-for-24 from the field, including 3-for-5 from downtown. The Heat won by 20 points and Adebayo finished with 59 DraftKings points. A repeat performance could break this seven-game slate.
Domantas Sabonis was injured in the first minute last game and Jonas Valanciunas made sure the Kings did not miss a beat. In his 30 minutes, Valanciunas stuffed the stat sheet with 15 points, 14 rebounds, four steals, three blocks, and one assist while shooting 7-for-10 from the field. His playing time has been all over the place, but with a 29-minute projection, Valanciunas is a priority player to target in all formats.
The Mavericks are dealing with a ton of injuries to their frontcourt, which makes this an even better spot for Valanciunas. The downside is him being played off the court, but at $5,400 he is totally worth the risk. Since the All-Star Break, the Mavericks rank 29th in rebounding percentage at 46.2%. If Valanciunas plays his projected 30 minutes, he will be the best play available and have a great double-double opportunity.
