On the menu for Friday night is a three-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Murray has topped 50 DraftKings points in three of his past six starts and is in a great spot Friday, playing way up in pace against the Grizzlies. Memphis leads the league in pace this season and this game’s 244.5-point total is the highest on the slate by a huge 16 points. This game is by far the best contest to target for Friday’s three-game slate, and Murray is one of the top ways to gain access.
The guard posted 42.25 DraftKings points in his last meeting with the Grizzlies in December, and Murray has been efficient in the new year, averaging 1.3 DraftKings PPM. In our ShotQuality projections, Murray has a ceiling near 60 DraftKings points.
With Evan Mobley (calf) out, Jerome saw an expanded role of 24.5 minutes off the bench Wednesday vs. the Rockets, en route to 29 DraftKings points. The veteran has been awesome this season, scoring 1.2 DraftKings PPM while shooting 50% from the field and Jerome should see 20-25 minutes again tonight with Mobley remaining sidelined.
The 76ers rank dead last in defensive rating this month, and Jerome is an outstanding value play in this juicy matchup. For the last five times Jerome has logged over 20 minutes, he is amassing 24.3 DraftKings PPG.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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Mitchell was a letdown Wednesday vs. the Rockets, finishing with only 29.25 DraftKings points, but this was excusable on the road against a Houston team that ranks second in defensive efficiency. Mitchell gets a total opposite matchup tonight, with the 76ers ranking dead last in defensive rating in the new year. As a result, the Cavaliers boast a large 119.75-point implied team total.
Mitchell has eclipsed 50 DraftKings points in three of the five starts he has made without Mobley this season, and with the forward off the floor, Mitchell’s usage rises 1.9 percentage points to a team-high 32.8%, via the On/Off Tool. The shooting guard is too cheap for his upside and is one of the best targets on the slate.
With Zion Williamson (conditioning) still sidelined, Hawkins is an awesome punt play to attack from this elite setting between the Pelicans and Grizzlies. Williamson has missed two of the last three games for New Orleans and Hawkins has recorded 25.25 and 24.75 DraftKings points on those occasions.
The guard is producing 0.8 DraftKings with a 22% usage rate this season, and Hawkins should destroy his cheap salary with over 20 DraftKings points against the fast-paced Grizzlies.
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Murphy is another Pelican who is an awesome option tonight. The wing has been New Orleans’ best player this month, scoring 45.1 DraftKings points in 37.3 minutes per game, both of which are team highs.
Murphy is handling a 25% usage rate and knocking down 3.3 three-pointers per game in January, and he lit the Grizzlies up for 48.25 DraftKings points when these clubs met in late December. In our ShotQuality projections, Murhpy’s ceiling is the highest on the slate among all forwards.
Brandon Miller (wrist) is out for the season and with the wing inactive for the last three, Smith has started for the Hornets and generated 23.75 DraftKings points in 29 minutes per game. Facing a Portland defense that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, Smith should exceed 5x value with his large workload and he would become an even stronger option if either LaMelo Ball (questionable, wrist) or Miles Bridges (questionable, back) sits.
Ball and Bridges lead the Hornets in usage, and either of them being absent would naturally boost Smith’s usage rate significantly.
The Grizzlies carry the highest implied team total on the slate (128 points), hosting a Pelicans team that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency. Jackson Jr. brings huge upside in this spot and is the best way to attack Memphis. He would become a must-play if Ja Morant (illness) sits. The guard was downgraded to questionable earlier today, which is never an encouraging sign.
Morant has already missed 18 games this season, and he missed shootaround this morning. Morant being inactive tonight wouldn’t be a surprise in any way, which would result in Jackson Jr. seeing a huge workload. In the 18 starts he has made without Morant this season, Jackson Jr. is leading the Grizzlies with 41.1 DraftKings PPG and a 32.8% usage rate, which is a 3.4 percentage point lift from his average.
With Mobley sidelined Wednesday, Wade posted 29.5 DraftKings points across 30 minutes in a tough matchup vs. the Rockets. Wade has now topped 20 DraftKings points in two of his last three sans Mobley, and tonight presents a much easier matchup against a 76ers team that has been struggling mightily without Joel Embiid (out, knee).
With Mobley off the court this season, Wade sees the biggest bump in production for the Cavaliers. The forward’s average increases to 0.9 DraftKings PPM, and over 20 DraftKings points is a realistic expectation for Wade tonight.
Williams has become a must-play until further notice. The center exploded for 58.25 DraftKings points Wednesday vs. the Grizzlies and has scored over 50 DraftKings points in four of his last five starts. Williams is supplying 1.5 DraftKings PPM with a 23.7% usage rate this month, and this weak Portland defense that ranks 25th in efficiency should have no answers for the center.
Williams is a core play no matter what, but if either Ball or Bridges sit tonight, Williams’ usage will increase, further solidifying Williams as one of the best plays on the slate.
While Edey’s recent game log has been underwhelming, this is a perfect spot for him to get on track. The Pelicans are allowing the second-most points in the paint and the fourth-most rebounds, making them a tremendous matchup for centers.
Edey posted 33.75 DraftKings points vs. the Pelicans last month and he should come with low ownership due to recency bias. For the season, Edey is collecting 1.1 DraftKings PPM.
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