DraftKings’ main slate for Friday features the first six games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Making his Spurs debut Wednesday vs. the Hawks, Fox flourished with 57.75 DraftKings points in a win over the Hawks. The Kentucky product led the team with 37 minutes, and he saw a strong 24.7% usage rate. Furthermore, Fox’s 13 assists tied a season-high. The guard should produce strong assist numbers on a nightly basis playing alongside Victor Wembanyama, and tonight, San Antonio carries the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate against a Hornets team that is going to be shorthanded after the trade deadline (119.5 points).
Fox is amassing 43 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of 118 points or more this season (12 games) and is a great bargain at less than $9,000 tonight.
The Wizards have three in a row, and in their most recent victory, Carrington started with his team depleted, and the rookie posted a 41-DraftKings point double-double across 35.3 minutes vs. the Nets. For this game, Washington was without Malcolm Brogdon (foot) and Alex Sarr (ankle) due to injury and both Kyle Kuzma and Jonas Valanciunas due to pending trades.
While Brogdon is questionable tonight, Sarr will remain out, and the players the Wizards received for Kuzma and Valanciunas won’t be available, leaving Carrington with a huge role as a starter. With Sarr, Kuzma, and Valanciunas off the floor, Carrington is producing 0.8 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. The guard is guaranteed to see over 30 minutes tonight and is an elite punt play that has a strong chance to exceed 10 times value, regardless of facing a Cavaliers team that ranks eighth in defensive efficiency.
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Daniels has been outstanding, scoring 49.5 DraftKings points vs. the Pistons and 43 DraftKings points vs. the Spurs in his last two starts. In addition to being one of the best defenders in the league, Daniels’ offensive game has blossomed this season, and his impressive play was one of the main reasons the Hawks were willing to trade away both De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic yesterday at the deadline.
Jalen Johnson (shoulder) is also out for the season, and with Johnson, Hunter, and Bogdanovic out of the picture, Daniels is going to handle a mammoth role as one of the Hawks’ top players for the rest of the season. The wing’s usage rises 2.6 percentage points with Johnson, Hunter, and Bogdanovic off the floor, and Daniels should approach 40 minutes in this 5.5-point spread vs. the Bucks tonight. This game’s total is the highest on the slate by a solid margin (242 points), and Daniels is underpriced for his upside in this elite setting.
Just like Carrington, Coulibaly must be considered with the Wizards understaffed. During this current three-game winning streak for Washington, Coulibaly is leading the team with 41.4 DraftKings points in 35 minutes per game.
The second-year player’s usage increases a team-high 5.1 percentage points with Sarr, Kuzma, and Valanciunas off the court this season, and he generates 1.2 DraftKings PPM in this situation. Coulilbaly’s salary clearly doesn’t reflect his current role, and he should score a minimum of 30 DraftKings points this evening.
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Small forward severely lacks appealing high-end options tonight, and Williams is by far the best lucrative target at the position. Earning his first All-Star selection, Williams is amassing 1.3 DraftKings PPM with a 27.9% usage rate this season. For tonight, the forward is going against a Raptors team that traded away multiple players in the last few days and will be without both RJ Barrett (concussion) and Jakob Poeltl (hip) due to injuries.
The Thunder carry the third-highest implied team total on the slate (124.25 points), and they are a huge 19-point home favorite over Toronto. While there is certainly a risk of a blowout, Williams has been excellent when the Thunder have been huge favorites this season, and he likely will come with low ownership given most anticipate a lopsided affair. For the 13 occasions he has played as a double-digit home favorite this season, Williams is scoring 44.6 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Strus has recorded at least 23 DraftKings points in seven of his past eight, and the veteran should see a large workload tonight with the Cavaliers shorthanded following the deadline. Not only are Dean Wade (knee) and Isaac Okoro (shoulder) still out, but Caris LeVert was traded to the Hawks for Hunter yesterday. Hunter is not expected to make his Cleveland debut tonight, and Strus should see over 30 minutes in this elite spot vs. the Wizards, who rank fourth in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency.
The Cavaliers boast the highest implied team total on the slate (126.25 points), and the Wizards are allowing the second-most made three-pointers in the NBA, which is great news for Strus, who is hoisting 5.5 threes per game this season. The veteran should cruise past five times value in this spot and is an awesome way to gain a piece of the Cavaliers at this low price tag.
Continuing with the Cavaliers and their slate-high implied team total, Mobley brings huge upside against the Wizards. Mobley has eclipsed 40 DraftKings points in four of his last six starts, and LeVert, Wade, and Okoro being unavailable should result in extra usage for Mobley.
The forward’s usage rises to 23.5% with those three players off the court this season, and as noted above, Cleveland’s implied team total is the largest on the board at a whopping 126.25 points. Mobley is scoring 41.2 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season (11 games), and the big man should come with low ownership in GPPs.
Jovic has been a strong contributor off the bench for the Heat recently. The forward is coming off a 41.75 DraftKings point outing vs. the 76ers on Wednesday, which is the fourth time in his last six that he has topped 30 DraftKings points.
Despite coming off the bench, Jovic has seen at least 35 minutes in back-to-back games, and he should continue to see heavy volume tonight with Andrew Wiggins not ready to make his Miami debut. The Nets rank 24th in defensive efficiency, and Jovic’s excellent run should continue in this juicy spot. In our ShotQuality projections, Jovic is a top-five forward value on the slate.
In his first start back following a 15-game absence due to a knee issue, Embiid was dominant Tuesday vs. the Mavericks, posting a triple-double worth 62.25 DraftKings points across 36 minutes. This set a season high in playing time for the center, which was a very encouraging sign coming off the lengthy absence.
The 76ers are only favored by four points vs. the Pistons tonight, and in this likely competitive affair, Embiid should see roughly 35 minutes of work. The former MVP is supplying 1.5 DraftKings PPM with a huge 37.5% usage rate this season, and this $10,000 price tag is simply too low for a healthy Embiid. For the last five times he has cracked the 30-minute mark, Embiid is averaging 53.6 DraftKings PPG. Its a rare situation, but Embiid is one of the healthiest studs in action tonight, and he is easily the best value among all the players priced at $10,000 or higher.
With Kuzma and Valanciunas no longer with the Wizards, Holmes should draw his second straight start at center. Making his first start of the season Wednesday vs. the Nets, Holmes finished with 21.75 DraftKings points in 26.3 minutes. Washington notched their third consecutive win with Holmes starting, and he finished third on the team in plus/minus.
Especially with a large Cleveland frontcourt on the other side, Holmes should receive 25-30 minutes tonight and outproduce this near-minimum salary with ease. This season, Holmes is collecting 1.0 DraftKings PPM, and he is averaging 22 DraftKings PPG for the two instances he has logged over 20 minutes.
