Sean Barnard dives into the top player prop bets ahead of the eight-game NBA slate on November 20.
The NBA landscape is beginning to change. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been knocked off their undefeated pedestal in last night’s NBA Cup, meaning every team in the league has at least one loss. Each team has played at least 13 games, meaning we are over 15% through the NBA season.
Plenty of basketball remains to be played, but the early takeaways from the season are clear. A team like the Philadelphia 76ers will be forced to dig themselves out of their 2-11 start, putting them in 15th place in the Eastern Conference. This is especially the case following the team meeting after Monday night’s loss which seems to have ruffled some feathers. Philadelphia will return to action tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies in a matchup that will say more about their season than games should at this stage of the calendar.
The Cavaliers will not have time to feel sorry for themselves after their first loss of the season and will be back in action tonight against the New Orleans Pelicans. They have done a nice job creating a cushion for themselves but have plenty of the season left to play.
The New York Knicks sit at 8-6 and have begun to find their footing. They will be facing off with the 9-6 Phoenix Suns tonight. The Indiana Pacers will also face the Houston Rockets, the Atlanta Hawks will play the Golden State Warriors and the Orlando Magic are matching up with the Los Angeles Clippers to headline the rest of the eight-game slate.
You can check out each matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook, but here are my favorite player props for November 20.
UPDATE: Darius Garland has been ruled OUT for tonight’s matchup with a groin injury.
When looking at the reason why the Cavaliers dropped their first game, it is tough to point the finger past Darius Garland. The former All-Star has been off to an incredible start to the season, but shot just 3-21 from the field last night against the Celtics. Garland finished with eight points, seven assists and two rebounds. This marks just the second time all season he has been held below 10 points.
On the season as a whole, Garland has averaged 20.6 points, 7.0 assists and 2.4 rebounds per game. He has shot 49.2% from the field and 43.0% from beyond the three-point arc. He has recorded over 18.5 points in nine of his 16 games overall.
Heading into this matchup, the Cavaliers will be facing off with the New Orleans Pelicans and are favored by 15 points. The Pelicans rank 21st in opponents points per game and rank second-to-last in opponent’s shooting percentage. New Orleans continues to be dealing with injury issues more than any other team and this is a great matchup for Garland to be in attack mode. He has looked like the best version of himself this season and last night was an outlier for an otherwise impressive year. Garland shot through his struggles until the very end of the game and will have a clean slate to work with today.
After missing the last game with a sore calf, Myles Turner is questionable tonight as the Pacers prepare to face off with the Rockets. So far this season, Turner has played 12 of the 14 games and averaged 17.6 points and 6.8 rebounds while shooting 42.4% from beyond the three-point arc. Turner has recorded over 7.5 rebounds in five of the 12 games this year.
Houston currently leads the NBA in rebounding this season with 59.3 rebounds per game as a team. However, they rank 21st in opponent total rebounds and 14th in opponent offensive rebounds per game. There should be plenty of opportunities for rebounds in this game as the Pacers play at the 10th quickest pace across the entire NBA. In addition, Houston has been playing at a more rapid speed recently and ranks fourth in pace of play across their past five games.
Turner sees plenty of opportunity on the floor and is averaging a career-high 32.9 minutes per game. If he plays, he will have a slight height advantage and a more athletic frame compared to his on-court counterpart in Alperen Şengün. Expect Turner to be at the center of the Pacers’ rebounding output in tonight’s game and capitalize on the +110 odds for him to record over 7.5 boards.
On the other side of the matchup sits Alperen Şengün. The fourth-year big man has averaged 17.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game on the season. This is not a matchup I like for Şengün. He has seen his role on the team regress as the Turkish product is playing 29.5 minutes per game after averaging 32.5 minutes per game last year.
Houston has an overabundance of young talent and they need to make some difficult decisions on which truly are the foundational pieces. Şengün looks to have a chance to be on the outside looking in, despite the extension that was given to him this summer. His minutes have fluctuated throughout the season and this is a matchup I expect him to be limited in. He has seen as few as 20.5 minutes this year and has been held to 26 or fewer minutes in five games.
The Pacers are set to play an up-tempo style that Houston has also leaned into lately. Expect more small-ball lineups from Houston in tonight’s matchup and for Şengün to have limited opportunities to play out of the post, which is when he is at his best. Count on a mild statistical output in tonight’s game and for Şengün to fall short of 16.5 combined assists and rebounds, which he has done seven times already this year.
In the final game of tonight’s slate, the Los Angeles Clippers are set to match up with the Orlando Magic. The Magic are continuing to survive without their franchise superstar Paolo Banchero. They enter with a 9-6 record and sit in third place in the Eastern Conference. Orlando is holding opponents to the fewest points per game on the season and ranks fifth in opponent field goal percentage. Jalen Suggs headlines an impressive defensive unit and will likely get the first crack at matching up with James Harden.
So far this season it has been a relatively strong start for James Harden. Through the opening 15 games, he has averaged 20.1 points, 9.0 assists, and 7.7 rebounds per game. He is shooting just 37.2% from the field this season and 31.1% from beyond the three-point arc. Harden has been held below 22.5 points in 10 of the 15 games he has played. This also includes being held below 20 points in seven games. He has leaned more on his playmaking in recent games, including tallying 27 assists across the past two games, and will likely be forced into this role again.
Both the Clippers and Magic rank in the bottom 10 in pace on the season, so there should not be additional offensive opportunities expected. Harden has only gone over 21 points in two of the past 10 games and the Magic defense will be the toughest matchup he has faced during this time. Expect Harden to remain under 22.5 points once again in this game.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
