Predicting NBA champions is difficult this decade, thanks to the end of the superteam era. In a league historically known for dynasties and extended championship windows, the Golden State Warriors were the last repeat NBA champions in 2018.
As the 2024-25 season tips, the defending champion Boston Celtics hope to end the dynasty drought. Boston returns all of their key pieces and commands respect at the top of the preseason oddsboard.
A busy offseason saw many of the league’s top contenders make splashy moves in an attempt to stay in the mix — including the stunning New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves trade on the eve of training camp.
Here’s a look at some key NBA contenders and the league’s crowded MVP race.
All odds from BetMGM. Looking for NBA tickets? Find them here.
For the second straight season, the Celtics (+325) own the preseason’s top title odds.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are both motivated after a strange summer with USA Basketball during which Tatum was benched and Brown was left off the team completely. Boston’s only injury concern is center Kristaps Porziņģis — who is sidelined until early 2025. Even with a limited Porziņģis available for only some of the 2024 playoffs, Boston still steamrolled its competition. There’s a strong chance the Celtics will repeat if injuries or chemistry issues don’t get in the way.
The best odds for dethroning the Celtics come from the Oklahoma City Thunder (+500). Falling short of the NBA Finals as the West’s top seed last season, the league’s youngest roster added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein this offseason. Both vets upgrade OKC’s defensive rotation, with Caruso also adding perimeter shooting consistency over departure Josh Giddey. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should get plenty of help from his developing supporting cast.
Excitement abounds for the New York Knicks (+650) after the offseason moves for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns. Superstar point guard Jalen Brunson has more top-end talent to work with this season. The trades for stars also depleted the Knicks’ bench. Given head coach Tom Thibodeau’s propensity for running teams into exhaustion late into the season, a weaker rotation could become an issue for New York.
After the Knicks, there is a considerable dive in the odds. A group of five teams all hover around the same numbers. It starts with the Philadelphia 76ers (+1000) after the offseason addition of Paul George. Joel Embiid has to stay healthy for Philadelphia to be any kind of factor. A revamped supporting cast at least gives the Sixers an outside shot if Embiid stays on the floor.
Champions two seasons ago, the Denver Nuggets (+1100) need point guard Jamal Murray to return to All-Star form to reach the pinnacle. MVP candidate Nikola Jokić and the frontcourt of Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. all return. Question marks linger about the Nuggets bench after key title contributors left the past two offseasons.
The Dallas Mavericks (+1200) unexpectedly made the NBA Finals as a five-seed last season behind the brilliance of Luka Dončić. The tandem of Dončić and Kyrie Irving have a new supporting cast of wings to get used to. The good news is a talented frontcourt gets a full season together after the Mavs made key trade deadline acquisitions last spring.
All eyes are on the Minnesota Timberwolves (+1200) coming off one of the best seasons in franchise history. A trade with the Knicks sent Towns packing for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo — giving the T’Wolves less star power but more scoring balance. With the superstar ascension of guard Anthony Edwards and the league’s No. 1 defense, there’s a lot to like about Minnesota if they successfully integrate the new pieces.
This could be the final push for the Milwaukee Bucks (+1400). The core of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton is aging rapidly. A bounce-back season from Lillard is needed for the Bucks to be a major player in the East.
Modern NBA MVPs are all about staying healthy and playing for a contender. Players need to meet the league’s 65-game minimum to be considered for the award to begin with. And a strong winning narrative often boosts candidates whose numbers are otherwise difficult to separate.
The Western Conference boasts the top three MVP candidates by preseason odds. Dončić (+350), Gilgeous-Alexander (+400) and reigning MVP Jokić (+475) all enter this season as the first-tier candidates.
Dončić improved his shooting splits last season and led the Mavs to a Finals appearance. But questions linger about Dončić defensively following a turnstile-like performance against the Celtics to end the season.
Gilgeous-Alexander is a trendy contender after finishing second to Jokić in voting last season. If the Thunder earn another No. 1 seed in the West behind a strong season, then Gilgeous-Alexander has a great chance of winning.
Voters could have Jokić burnout after the big man collected his third MVP in the last four seasons. Jokić is still a safe contender for plenty of votes if no breakout candidate separates themselves from the pack.
Two-time former MVP Antetokounmpo (+850) owns the top odds for an Eastern Conference player. Health is the main concern for the Greek Freak’s candidacy, as he hasn’t played the minimum games required in three of the last five seasons.
The next tier sees Minnesota star Edwards (+1200), Brunson (+1400) and Tatum (+1500). If Minnesota keeps winning after trading Towns, then it boosts the credibility of Edwards. Coming off a big season and solid summer, the 23-year-old has the scoring acumen and overall upside to leap immediately into the conversation.
Brunson could have a tough time keeping up with his MVP counterparts by sheer numbers alone. It will be hard to ignore the crafty point guard, however, if he puts together another huge season and the Knicks compete in the East.
If you believe in revenge tours, then Tatum has the narrative to match. A disappointing summer with USA Basketball dampened the mood for Tatum after the Celtics’ title run. A motivated Tatum is talented enough to be a factor if he elevates his individual numbers.
San Antonio Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama (+2200) is a wild card. The Spurs likely won’t have the team success required of many MVP campaigns. But if the league’s top defender improves efficiency and shows insane growth, then it will be hard to ignore any MVP chatter.
(Photo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
