Here it comes: the best month of the year. I’m ecstatic for the 2024 MLB playoffs. We’ve had a fun season and one of the most difficult parts was trying to figure out how to rank the playoff teams. They’ve all been inconsistent and have flaws that might prove fatal. The postseason is incredibly unpredictable anyway, but it especially seems the case this season. Remember the run less than a decade ago of dominant champions (2016 Cubs, 2017 Astros and Dodgers, 2018 Red Sox)? This time around, we have zero 100-win teams (here’s the full bracket).
In fact, the Dodgers’ MLB-high 98 wins is the lowest total for the leader since 2014. That was the Angels, whose playoff run certainly seems like an eternity ago.
Even the years with elite regular-season teams can be plenty unpredictable. The 2021 Braves had the lowest win total in the playoff field and won the World Series. The 2022 Phillies had the worst record on the NL side among playoff teams and won the pennant. How many people had the Rangers winning the title last year? How about the Diamondbacks taking the NL pennant?
Knowing all of this, it should go without saying that every single team here is a threat to win it all. I’m sure I’ll be accused of “disrespecting” a team here due to the ranking, but that’s fine. It comes with the territory but it needs to be said that I greatly respect every team here. I have to rank someone last. That’s just how rankings work. Several items below will age very poorly, too.
These rankings do not reflect the regular season body of work other than what they’ve shown and how it could work in the playoffs. I am ranking based on the likelihood that each team can win the World Series.
Uh oh. All the non-Yankees fans are mad. To those people I would say that I have no confidence in this pick. I have no confidence in putting any teams No. 1 this season. That’s just how it’s gone. It was a process of elimination up top and I still don’t love how it turned out. Do I actually think the Yankees are going to win the World Series? No. Not really. I’d say no on every single team, though, and one of them has to win it so I’d only be correct on 11 of my 12 guesses.
On the positive side — I mean, I did put them No. 1 — the Yankees have Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. That’s a hell of a start. They seem to have solved the bullpen issue with Luke Weaver closing things down. Gerrit Cole has looked like his old self for the past two months other than one bad outlier start. Carlos Rodón closed the season strong while Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt give them a legitimately great playoff rotation. There’s an awful lot to like about this group for the next month.
A week ago I would’ve had the Dodgers lower. Their rotation is just such a mess. Walker Buehler actually hasn’t been bad his last three starts, though, while Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto can team with him for a decent 1-3 playoff rotation. The bullpen closed the season very impressively, too, so I’m not near as worried about the pitching as I was a few weeks ago.
The Dodgers can bang with anyone offensively, too, starting with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. The offense could carry this team even if the question marks on the pitching side hinder them. It’s possible the hitters fail and they get swept just like last year, but this is a loaded Dodgers team and if they get any kind of pitching, they could well win it all.
A week ago, I might’ve put the Padres at the top of this list. The series loss in L.A. despite having better pitching matchups on paper is what swayed me to move the Padres down a touch. Still, they have everything needed to win the big one for the first time in franchise history.
The offense can be stellar 1-7 with at least two (Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr.) capable of performing as series-altering superstars — Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill aren’t too far behind, either.
The four-man playoff rotation of Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Michael King is capable of being great for a month and gives them a chance every single game, even if the hitters fall into a collective slump. At the back of the bullpen sit three closers, essentially, in Robert Suarez, Tanner Scott and Jason Adam. The bullpen is deeper than that, but those are the big guns. There’s a question around Suarez due to his troubles in the last two months of the season, but there’s all kinds of ability here.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Padres bow out early, as small-sample baseball can be fluky, but they are a decent pick to win it all.
Can they just flip a switch? The past two postseasons, the Phillies showed they were better built for the sprint of the playoffs than the marathon of the regular season. This year, they went out and played like a great regular-season team for a while, too. They have a bye this time around instead of needing to get through the Wild Card Series. They have four starting pitchers capable of throwing like aces.
But.
The Phillies haven’t been playing well for a bit. They went 10-11 since Sept. 6. Ranger Suárez seems broken, too, having a 7.79 ERA in his last four starts.
So I ask again: Can they just flip the proverbial switch?
If so, the Phillies have as good a shot as anyone to win it all. They potentially have four frontline starters, a lock-down bullpen and a deep and powerful offense.
The last time there was an ALCS without the Astros was 2016. How ridiculous is that? Since their 12-24 start this season, the Astros have an MLB-best 76-49 record.
Will they keep Justin Verlander in the playoff rotation behind Framber Valdez, Yusei Kikuchi and Ronel Blanco? I wouldn’t, though I suppose his last start was a little encouraging.
Overall, the Astros don’t quite have the dominant feel they did a few different seasons in the past — and the lineup is pretty top heavy — but they are plenty good enough to win it all. I couldn’t justify putting them any lower.
I’ve already started to hear some people talk about the Guardians being better built for the regular season and it might have merit. We’ll see next month. They don’t hit for a ton of power outside of their two 30-plus HR guys in José Ramírez and Josh Naylor and the rotation is one of the worst in the playoffs.
The X-factor here is the Guardians’ relievers, though. They had the best bullpen in baseball by a mile this season and that gives them the ability to shorten games. They might have enough stud relievers to space them out enough in the playoffs without running everyone out of gas, too.
Anyone who doesn’t take the Guardians seriously as a World Series championship threat is ignorant to how good a team this is. It also wouldn’t be jaw-dropping to see them get swept and barely score any runs. There’s a lot of variance here.
Similar to the Guardians, the Brewers won their division with relative ease and don’t seem quite as loaded as some other playoff teams. The playoff rotation will not look imposing and the lineup is mostly void of big names, especially with Christian Yelich injured. Still, they have a good offense and steal a ton of bases. The bullpen has been outstanding in the second half, too. Much like the Guardians, neither a deep playoff run nor getting swept in the first round would be a huge surprise.
I might’ve had the Mets higher, but they are compromised a bit in the first round thanks to that hurricane-induced doubleheader on Monday. The good news is they were able to come back and win that incredible first game and that enabled them to hold Luis Severino back. That means they can go with Sean Manaea in Game 2 and José Quintana in Game 3. They are pretty well set up in the rotation, all things considered, but surely Edwin Díaz is down for Game 1 and the bullpen is thin as it is. Still, they’ve been the best team in baseball since the start of June and there’s often a feeling late in the game when they trail that they will find a way to come back and win it.
My preseason pick to come out of the AL (I had the Phillies winning it all), the Orioles haven’t inspired much confidence in a while. This isn’t just a two-week slump. The Orioles are 34-38 since July 7. Now, they did look much better this past week, winning five of six to finish the season. Does that mean they are fixed? I’m dubious on overreacting to the small sample, but it was nice to see from the perspective of someone who wouldn’t mind seeing his preseason prediction come to fruition.
The rotation could be worrisome, but Corbin Burnes has been back to ace-like in the last month and Zach Eflin gives them a nice 1-2 punch. The bullpen can be trouble, but relievers are volatile and it’s possible everything comes together for a month. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman are capable of star performances while Anthony Santander has been one of the best power hitters in baseball.
Again, it could go either way!
Just over a month ago, I would’ve been toying with the Royals being in the top five here. But they had two seven-game losing streaks and only won 11 of their final 29 games. That scared me off. They still have the pieces to make a deep postseason run, though, especially with a possible return of Vinnie Pasquantino to the lineup. The rotation of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and either Michael Lorenzen or Brady Singer could be great. There are power arms in the bullpen. Salvador Perez is still a great power threat and works well with a staff in the playoffs. And, of course, Bobby Witt Jr. is the type of superstar that could carry an offense for a month. I just have concerns after this last stretch.
Can momentum and vibes carry the Tigers? It’s possible! The 2007 Rockies rode those all the way to a pennant. The Tigers went a ridiculous 33-15 down the stretch and that includes two losses to finish the season when they weren’t really trying all that hard, post-clinch. They’ve been a “never say die” bunch that just keep getting clutch hits along the way. Sometimes you watch a team and they give off team of destiny vibes, and the Tigers qualify. It’s been amazing and one of the best stories in baseball.
They have AL Cy Young winner (it isn’t official but he’s going to win) Tarik Skubal atop the rotation, too.
Still, they don’t have a very imposing offense and the lack of power is especially worrisome when it comes to piecing together wins against playoff pitching. I won’t be shocked if the Tigers ride this wave deep into the playoffs, but I just can’t see them winning it all — even if that would probably be the most fun story possible.
The Braves finished a cursed season. Kudos to them for putting it all together down the stretch and they certainly have the talent for an unlikely run a la 2021, but I’m just not seeing it with this group. They emptied their tank to make the playoffs and are compromised now after the Monday doubleheader, especially with the Chris Sale injury.
They’ll lose in the Wild Card Series.
