Bo Nix or Jayden Daniels: Which rookie quarterback is more impressive?
Sports Seriously’s Mackenzie Salmon asks Tyler Dragon about the rookie quarterbacks that are heading into Wildcard Weekend.
Sports Seriously
The Detroit Lions are set to play their first playoff game of 2025 as they look to make it to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. They will have to get through the Washington Commanders in order to keep that dream alive.
The Commanders were the lone team in the NFL to pull off a seeding upset on wild card weekend. The No. 6-seed Commanders knocked off the No. 3-seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers thanks to a walk-off field goal from Zane Gonzalez.
Washington, in its first season under head coach Dan Quinn, hasn’t been to the NFC championship game since the 1991 NFL playoffs, which were contested in 1992. With a victory, Jayden Daniels can become just the fourth rookie quarterback in NFL history to win multiple playoff games, joining Brock Purdy, Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco.
Suffice to say there is a lot riding on this matchup, and sportsbooks expect it to be a high-scoring one (the over/under for the contest was set at 55.5). That will excite many bettors looking to make as much as they can with opportunities to bet on NFL games dwindling.
What are the best bets for the Lions vs. Commanders NFL playoff game? Here’s a look at the top player props and anytime TD scorers to back in the divisional round matchup.
All odds are via BetMGM as of Friday.
Some may be tempted by the seeming value of Ekeler’s over 3.5 receptions prop (+125), but it’s worth noting the Lions have allowed the fifth-fewest receptions to running backs this season (61).
That said, Detroit has allowed 592 receiving yards to running backs this season, which ranks as the 13th-most in the NFL. That’s also good for an average of 9.7 yards per reception and should position Ekeler, who averaged 10.5 yards per catch this season, for a solid game out of the backfield.
Ekeler has averaged 3.2 catches and 31.8 receiving yards per game over his last five outings. The team’s run-blocking in front of Brian Robinson Jr. has been poor in recent weeks, so Ekeler may be asked to make up for that by operating with increased responsibilities in the quick passing game. Either way, this estimate seems a bit low in a game where both teams should be marching up and down the field.
Gibbs was one of the hottest running backs in the NFL down the stretch of the 2024 NFL season, but he may not be as dynamic a pass catcher in this contest.
The Commanders allowed the fewest receptions (48) and fewest receiving yards (387) to running back in the regular season and continued to limit backs in their 23-20 playoff win over the Buccaneers (Rachaad White and Bucky Irving combined for four catches, 20 yards and a touchdown). That should set Washington up well to limit the Lions’ dynamic duo through the air.
That’s the other part of this equation. David Montgomery is set to play for the first time since Week 15. He should eat into Gibbs’ workload on the ground, but he may limit the second-year back through the air as well. Gibbs averaged 4.3 catches per game in three contests without Montgomery but averaged just 2.8 per game in 14 with him.
If Montgomery can’t handle his usual workload or the Lions end up trailing throughout this game, Gibbs could buck that trend and hit the over. But more likely, Gibbs won’t deliver the prolific passing numbers fans have become accustomed to seeing in recent weeks.
McLaurin has posted at least 60 receiving yards in six of his last seven games and has averaged 66.3 receiving yards per game during that span. That may make his 67.5-yard line seem fair, but it’s important to note that average includes his one-catch, five-yard outing in the Commanders’ overtime win against the Atlanta Falcons.
McLaurin was matched up against A.J. Terrell, who is widely regarded as one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks, consistently in that contest. The Lions do not have a corner on Terrell’s level. Their top options are Terrion Arnold, a rookie coming off a foot injury, and 5-9 Amik Robertson, who performed admirably while shutting down Justin Jefferson in Week 18 but may not be able to repeat his magic against McLaurin.
Add in that the Lions have allowed a league-high 3,147 yards to receivers this year and this looks like a good matchup for “Scary Terry.” Betting him to score a touchdown (+130) for the seventh time in eight games might not be a bad bet either.
Montgomery played in 14 regular season games for the Lions before being knocked out for the rest of it with a knee injury. He is set to return against the Commanders in the divisional round and could immediately resume his role as a bruising goal-line back for Detroit.
Betting Montgomery to score a TD (-225) is a no-brainer, but doesn’t come with much of a payoff. Betting him to score the first touchdown seems like a better value, as Montgomery scored Detroit’s first touchdown in seven of the 14 games he played this year. Overall, the Lions have seen running backs log the first score in 11 of 17 games this season.
Montgomery’s +400 odds give him an implied probability of 20% of getting the first score. His volume with the Lions seems to indicate those chances are higher, though it’s worth noting the Commanders could render this bet null if they score the opening TD of the game.
But if you’re looking for a calculated risk to back, this one seems to have a high chance of paying off.
