Florham Park, NJ — July 27, 2024 — Quarterback, Aaron Rodgers during the New York Jets training camp this morning.
Less than a week away from the start of the 2024 NFL season, bettors have had ample time to wager on the the NFL win totals for all 32 teams, which means sportsbooks have also had ample time to adjust the lines.
Roughly half of the NFL has seen its win total move a full game either up or down since odds first opened. The table below lists the latest NFL win totals for all 32 teams along with their opening win total. Under the table, find my two favorite win-total bets on the board based on the updated odds.
| Team | Opening Win Total | Current Win Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 6.5 | 6.5 | -150 | +125 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 10.5 | 9.5 | -150 | +125 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.5 | 10.5 | -135 | +110 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | 9.5 | -145 | +120 |
| Carolina Panthers | 4.5 | 5.5 | -115 | +102 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 | 9.5 | +120 | -150 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10.5 | 10.5 | -125 | -100 |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.5 | 8.5 | -135 | +115 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10.5 | 9.5 | -145 | +120 |
| Denver Broncos | 5.5 | 5.5 | -140 | +120 |
| Detroit Lions | 9.5 | 10.5 | -132 | +108 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 | 9.5 | -135 | +115 |
| Houston Texans | 9.5 | 9.5 | -140 | +120 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 | 8.5 | +110 | -130 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.5 | 8.5 | -120 | -100 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 | 11.5 | -115 | -105 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6.5 | 6.5 | -130 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 8.5 | 8.5 | -155 | +130 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8.5 | 8.5 | -160 | +135 |
| Miami Dolphins | 10.5 | 9.5 | -135 | +115 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6.5 | 6.5 | -140 | +120 |
| New England Patriots | 4.5 | 4.5 | -135 | +110 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.5 | 7.5 | -120 | -100 |
| New York Giants | 6.5 | 6.5 | +115 | -135 |
| New York Jets | 9.5 | 10.5 | +115 | -145 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 | 10.5 | -130 | +110 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 | 8.5 | +125 | -155 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11.5 | 11.5 | +125 | -145 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7.5 | 7.5 | -150 | +130 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.5 | 7.5 | -135 | +115 |
| Tennessee Titans | 5.5 | 6.5 | +110 | -135 |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 | 6.5 | -130 | +110 |
While 14 teams have moved up or down a game in the 2024 NFL win totals, it’s noteworthy that zero teams have moved more than one game in either direction.
Win totals and odds as of Aug. 31 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Download the top football betting apps to make your win-total bets,
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets opened with a win total of 9.5 but are now sitting at 10.5 ahead of Week 1, albeit with the under favored at -145. I get the narrative: you’re adding a three-time NFL MVP onto a team that’s already pretty stacked defensively. Rodgers is the one missing piece that will turn the amorphous green blob into a finished puzzle, right?
I’m not buying it. Aaron Rodgers is 40 and hasn’t played a snap in a year. On top of that, his 2022 season was one of the worst of his career. He failed to reach 4,000 yards in a full season for the first time since 2015, and his 12 interceptions were the most he’s thrown since his first year as a starter back in 2008 (13). Both his passer rating (91.1) and QBR (41.3) were his lowest ever.
Sure, Green Bay was pretty diminished at the skill positions in 2022, but it’s not like the Jets are stacked. Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams on the outside with Breece Hall at running back and Tyler Conklin at tight end amounts to a supremely average group.
I was leaning under on the Jets when it was at 9.5 and love it at 10.5. It doesn’t hurt that SBD’s computer model has them under as well in its 2024 NFL record predictions.
My second pick is the Dallas Cowboys – who opened with a win total of 10.5 – to go over their reduced total of 9.5, again at -145 odds.
Forget the headlines about no team repeating as NFC East champs since 2004. The Cowboys have been arguably the most-consistent regular-season team over the last three seasons, winning 12 games in 2021, 2022, and 2023.
The Cowboys splashed in free agency by signing linebacker Eric Kendricks on a favorable deal. Replacing eight-time Pro Bowl LT Tyron Smith (Jets) will of course be a challenge, but the 33-year-old’s best days are behind him.
I don’t expect a ton from the Commanders (7-10 record projection) or Giants (7-10 record projection) and, overall, Dallas is T9 in terms of 2024 NFL strength of schedule, despite finishing first in the NFC East last year.
Remember, Dallas doesn’t need to win 12 games again to hit this over. They could regress two full games from last season and still cash the over at 9.5.
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Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
