Dan Graziano
Jeremy Fowler
Jeremy Fowler
senior NFL national reporter
It’s Week 18 of the 2024 NFL season, and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are here to break down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz heading into the regular season’s final slate of games. They’ve been making calls around the league to get the newest information. But because the offseason also begins next week, they’ve also been checking in on the upcoming coaching carousel and what could happen. And that’s our main focus in this week’s buzz file.
How many head-coach jobs will be open this cycle, including the three already open (Jets, Saints and Bears)? Where should Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson — one of the hottest candidates at the moment — want to coach next season? And which other coach-to-team pairings make a ton of sense and could happen?
It’s all here, as our insiders answer big questions and empty their reporter notebooks with everything they’ve heard heading into Week 18.
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Openings | Johnson’s landing spot
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Latest buzz and notes
Graziano: I’m going to say eight. The Bears, Saints and Jets are already open. The other potential openings I’m watching are the Cowboys, Jaguars, Raiders, Patriots, Colts and Giants. That’d be nine if they all came open, so I’m hedging a bit by saying eight.
Would it be entirely fair for the Raiders to move on from Antonio Pierce after a season without a real quarterback? Of course not, but with Tom Brady joining the ownership group, people are watching for potential change. Could Mike McCarthy keep his job in Dallas? Sure. But Jerry Jones still hasn’t extended his contract, and it expires after this season. Have things gone badly enough in Indianapolis that no one should feel safe? You bet, and the same applies for the Giants and Jaguars. And we’ve been hearing for weeks that the Patriots intend to bring Jerod Mayo back for a second season, but things keep looking worse and worse in New England.
Fowler: I’m going to go under your total and say seven — the three existing open jobs plus four more. How it gets there is a labyrinth. Most people I’ve talked to expect the Raiders and Jaguars jobs to turn over, which gets us to five. Members of both staffs feel uncertainty, though Pierce is trying to make this interesting with back-to-back wins for Las Vegas. And the silence is deafening in Jacksonville. Owner Shad Khan hasn’t tipped his hand and wasn’t in the locker room postgame Sunday, which is not the norm after a win. But some people there believe coach Doug Pederson is projecting confidence, so we’ll see.
Somehow, the Giants and Cowboys jobs seem more like wild cards than they did a few weeks ago. While Brian Daboll’s 3-13 campaign in New York could prove a fireable offense, people there believe he’s going to fight for his job on Monday or Tuesday of next week with a detailed plan. And owner John Mara really doesn’t want to endure a regime change. But let’s assume Daboll is out. That leaves Dallas, where a lot will occur over the next 7-10 days. More industry sources than I expected believe McCarthy has a small chance to stay, in part because of what’s considered a weak candidate pool. But McCarthy and his entire staff are operating under expiring contracts, which complicates matters (and frees up McCarthy to look into other jobs, which I also think is entirely possible).
So, for this exercise, let’s say New York is open and Dallas keeps McCarthy. That puts us at six, with one surprise. Could New England or Tennessee, sitting at three wins, get impatient? That’s not my sense, but it has been an ugly finish for both.
1:17
Why the Cowboys and Mike McCarthy should part ways
Jason McCourty evaluates whether the Cowboys and coach Mike McCarthy should part ways after the season.
Graziano: My sense is that Tennessee will want to keep Brian Callahan and let him work with a new quarterback, because Will Levis doesn’t look like the answer. Tennessee had higher expectations for this season after being active in free agency and the offseason trade market, but one-and-done for Callahan seems a bit harsh. Same with Mayo in New England, given how little he had to work with on that roster. Plus, ownership selected Mayo as the successor to Bill Belichick before Belichick was even finished, and it doesn’t seem like it’d want to give up on him after one season.
Fowler: Nick Sirianni has quieted the preseason noise with the Eagles’ 13-3 season. Would a first-round playoff exit reignite talks about his job status? It’s hard to say, but it’s a question some people around the league are wondering. Sirianni’s 47-20 record is impressive. Yet his standing was a talking point coming off a tumultuous 2023 campaign, and he doesn’t have a contract extension in place. The sideline and on-field spats are sort of hard to ignore. Any firing here would be a sizable upset, but if we’re talking surprises, this would be one to list because his status was a regular debate four months ago.
Fowler: After sitting out the past two coaching cycles, it seems like it’s Johnson’s time to become a head coach. Detroit’s offensive coordinator is making a compelling case as the game’s best play designer. The past four weeks, his Lions offense has accumulated point totals of 34, 42, 34 and 40, respectively.
Yes, the whispers about him struggling in certain interview settings in the past are there, but Johnson says he has learned from the experience. Fit will be important, but the Bears could appeal to Johnson because he can help quarterback Caleb Williams, streamline the porous offensive line play and give a talented but strained offense some layups and easy yards. It’s a good job, with its tradition, talent on the roster and cap space to go along with Williams. And it appears that Johnson has at least some interest in the Bears gig.
Graziano: No question about it, Johnson would be a huge help for Williams as an offensive playcaller and play designer. But the question when bringing in the hot coordinator of the moment is what kind of head coach he will be. The power structure in Chicago is an interesting one, with GM Ryan Poles still there and team president Kevin Warren taking on a significant role. The next head coach must make sure he likes the way he fits into that structure and that it sets him (and by extension, Williams) up for success.
2:10
What is the biggest issue surrounding Caleb Williams?
Ryan Clark and Mike Tannenbaum debate the biggest issue surrounding Bears quarterback Caleb Williams after a 6-3 loss to the Seahawks.
Fowler: Also, the Bears haven’t had sustained offensive success since the Truman administration. Even at its most attractive, the Bears job isn’t typically one that offensive masterminds point to and say, “We will score 40 points per game there.” And that division is a beast, as the Bears’ three NFC North opponents have a combined 39-9 record this season. So perhaps Jacksonville — with a weak division, a roster with some talent, no state income tax, small-market scrutiny and great weather — is the best option.
The Jaguars’ divisional opponents are currently 19-29, a far cry from what Johnson would face in the NFC North. So more people around the league than you’d think have Jacksonville No. 1. Now, much of that hinges on how you feel about quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has underperformed. But perhaps a new system will maximize him. And there might be a new general manager in place whom the head coach can influence.
Graziano: These are good points, Jeremy. The Bears job has allure because of Williams and how amazing it would be to be the coach who finally won there after nearly 40 years of disappointment. But the job comes with an extensive history of organizational dysfunction that has doomed pretty much every coach the Bears have had since Mike Ditka. Of course, you can say a lot of the same stuff about the Jaguars.
If New England did come open, might Johnson want to go work with quarterback Drake Maye and the haul of draft picks the Pats can likely acquire for this year’s No. 1 pick? Johnson has been choosy and has made it clear he’s not going to leave the excellent situation he’s currently in with the Lions for just any old coaching job. If he stays put in Detroit for a third straight season, it could hurt his head coaching aspirations long term, but some of these situations aren’t exactly set up for success.
Graziano: If the Patriots job comes open, Mike Vrabel makes a ton of sense as a proven head coach who also happens to be in the team’s Hall of Fame. New England looks to have its quarterback of the future in Maye and needs to build up the culture and roster around him.
Again, I’m not saying Mayo can’t do that. It’s possible he can, and it’s possible Patriots ownership will decide to stick with the guy it believed in enough to make him coach-in-waiting while Belichick was still there. All I’m saying is if the job comes open, Vrabel would have to be at the top of the list of predicted hires.
Fowler: That would be a natural fit. Staying with the connectivity theme, the Saints hiring Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn makes sense. He’s one of the most complete candidates, so I believe his chances to earn a head coaching job are strong. The Saints have valued consistency over the past two decades of mostly successful football. Glenn has been a part of that as a Sean Payton disciple, and New Orleans means a lot to Detroit coach Dan Campbell, who is also from the Payton tree.
Dan, what do you think of Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and Chicago? Flores and Poles were both players at Boston College, and Warren has close ties to Minnesota, where he used to work. But any defensive coach has to have a phenomenal plan for Caleb Williams.
Graziano: That’s the thing with Flores, right? He went through offensive coordinators and offensive assistant coaches like tissues when he was head coach in Miami, and he has to be able to present a convincing and coherent plan for how the offense will run and how the quarterback will develop. It’s entirely possible — even likely — that he has that, but he’s going to have to sell it to team owners in a league that he’s currently suing for racial discrimination. I think Flores is an excellent coach who might very well succeed if given another chance to be a head man, but he has some obstacles to overcome.
I’ve heard a few people speculate about Kliff Kingsbury to Chicago because of his relationship with Williams from working together at USC in 2023. Kingsbury has done an excellent job this season with Washington rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Do you think Chicago, which chose Shane Waldron over Kingsbury last cycle for offensive coordinator, would take another look?
Fowler: I do. I expect Kingsbury to interview there. As was told to me, most or all the names that have been linked to the Bears are people Chicago would like to interview. Observers believe experience will be a key factor in the hiring process, and Kingsbury has experience coupled with quarterback cachet.
Now, we’ve heard the buzz word “selective” with Johnson’s approach to the cycle. Kingsbury will also be selective, I’m told. He’s still getting paid head coach money from Arizona and gets to coach Daniels on a Washington team that should be even better next season. I don’t think he’s ironing shirts for job interviews just yet. Keep in mind, Kingsbury was down the road with the Jets in 2019 before he took the Arizona job, so New York could double back with him.
Fowler: Pete Carroll might not be the only Super Bowl-winning coach vying for the Bears job. I’ve talked to multiple people who believe McCarthy — should he leave Dallas — could set his sights on Chicago. He would give the Bears much-needed experience and offensive acumen.
Despite his rocky tenure in Dallas, McCarthy would stack up well if parachuting into this candidate pool and provide leadership. He turned 61 in November but seems to have the energy for the job. He’s quite familiar with NFC North football, too. This might not graduate from a working theory stage, but enough people have mentioned the scenario to make it worth mentioning here.
Graziano: Someone asked me why Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo doesn’t get more buzz, and it’s a good question. Spagnuolo wasn’t successful in his first head coaching stint with the Rams from 2009 to 2011, and his defenses in New Orleans and New York struggled in the following seasons. But he has engineered maybe the top postseason defense in the league the past few seasons in Kansas City, contributing significantly to three Super Bowl titles amid roster turnover and, for the past two seasons, offensive inconsistency.
Spagnuolo is 65 and coaches defense, two things that work against him in a league where teams are looking for young offensive-minded coaches. But if the Chiefs win a third straight title, that would give him five championships as a defensive coordinator — four in K.C. and one with the Giants. I’d be surprised if that performance, along with Spagnuolo’s strong reputation around the league, doesn’t at least result in interview requests.
Fowler: Spagnuolo is more than qualified and, at minimum, deserves to be in the interview circuit. Same with Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, whose 34-31 record in Chicago is aging well.
On the coordinator front, while most people expect Mayo to keep his job in New England, they are watching Alex Van Pelt closely as a potential one-and-done at offensive coordinator. At the very least, positional changes on offense would be in order. Indianapolis defensive coordinator Gus Bradley appears to be on the hot seat, as well.
Graziano: I think we’re going to see a fair bit of defensive coordinator movement. I’m not sure how much Lou Anarumo could have done with the Bengals’ personnel this season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cincinnati make some changes on that side of the ball. (I don’t think head coach Zac Taylor is in trouble.) The Cowboys’ Mike Zimmer is another veteran defensive coordinator to watch, but a lot depends on what ownership decides to do with McCarthy.
Graziano’s notes:
It’s possible that the Giants — even if they move on from Daboll — could keep GM Joe Schoen and let him find the franchise’s next quarterback, either in the draft or free agency. That mission gets tougher with the Giants having won this past weekend to fall out of the top spot in the draft, but Schoen has been scouting college QBs all season and will have a plan to present to ownership for how to fix things for the short and long term.
1:22
Matt Miller: Giants have to take Shedeur Sanders
Matt Miller explains why the Giants should take Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders if they land the top pick in the NFL draft.
I still think you’re going to hear the name of Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph in this year’s interview cycle. He’s a former head coach who has Denver’s defense playing extremely well. And with teams sounding like they’ll prioritize previous head coaching experience, I expect Joseph to get attention.
A few weeks back, I said I thought Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith would have to wait another year before getting head coach interviews again, but it sounds like he might get a couple of looks on this year’s cycle after all. The work Smith has done with Pittsburgh’s patchwork quarterback situation this season has been impressive.
A year ago, Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik was one of the buzzier coaching names. He’s not likely to draw quite as much interest this time around after a disappointing second season with the Texans, but don’t be shocked if he gets a few interview requests. The offensive coordinator pool of head coach candidates isn’t as deep this year as it has been recently, and teams are still looking to pick the brains of people with ideas for how to score more points. Buffalo’s Joe Brady is also someone teams might be calling for interviews.
Fowler’s notes:
Sam Darnold‘s future will continue to be captivating in light of his resurgence in Minnesota; Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell has Darnold dealing. Minnesota’s stance entering the season was that if Darnold earns a big payday elsewhere, that’s good for the team and the player. Of course, the Vikings have first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, who is waiting for the chance to start as early as 2025. But Darnold might have played his way out of that thinking. I asked several league executives what they thought about the situation. A slight majority believes Minnesota keeps Darnold, either through an extension or franchise tag at around $41 million. One AFC executive pointed to the Geno Smith/Baker Mayfield weight class of contracts, citing a three-year, $100 million deal with a strong cash flow as an option. I haven’t talked to one team that thinks Darnold gets top-10 quarterback money. A separate AFC executive believes Minnesota lets him walk because “they have McCarthy but they also have Daniel Jones, who can be the next resurrection project for them — and both would be much cheaper.” (Jones is on the practice squad.) Deepening the intrigue: At least five teams picking in the top 10 of the draft need a QB, and the supply doesn’t meet the demand. That increases the chances of a team making Darnold an attractive offer.
1:51
Schefter to McAfee: Sam Darnold has plenty of intriguing options after this season
Adam Schefter explains to Pat McAfee the different options Sam Darnold has after this season.
Part of the process before Monday is trying to figure out which coaching candidates — particularly fast risers or first-year coordinators — will have real traction in coming weeks. I feel pretty confident saying that Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s buzz is real and he will be a fixture on the interview circuit. Just about everybody I talk to agrees that he has a real chance to become a head coach after one year in Tampa Bay. His offense is highly effective with a creative run game, he elevates quarterback play, and he comes from the Sean McVay tree.
I believe Eagles OC Kellen Moore is a name that hasn’t gotten enough buzz. He has impressed this season, and if Dallas opens, perhaps he can serve as comfort food for Jerry Jones. Baltimore OC Todd Monken is also in that not-enough-buzz realm. He has had quite a four-year run, helping Georgia win back-to-back national championships, and has Lamar Jackson on the fast track to potentially winning back-to-back MVPs.
Here’s what I know about Dallas’ situation with McCarthy: The Cowboys are not leaning in one direction as of this moment. They truly are focused on ending the season and will have open and honest talks with McCarthy next week. They aren’t looking at other candidates right now, and they know that whether McCarthy wants to comb the open market is up to him. “No lean,” said a team source about its stance. So the plan is get through Week 18 and then make decisions. The coaching staff, without a contract beyond this season, must stay nimble, waiting for dominoes to fall leaguewide while awaiting clarity in Dallas. It’s a unique situation.
The general manager cycle is unpredictable, with nothing but possibilities outside of the Jets opening. The AFC South is a division to watch. The prevailing theme leaguewide is that Jaguars owner Shad Khan would make the head coaching job more attractive by moving on from GM Trent Baalke as well as Pederson, offering the proverbial clean slate. It seems like Baalke’s future is in doubt, but he has also kept his job through two coaching changes there, and people I’ve talked to believe he has a fighter’s chance to do so again. Part of the issue that could seal his fate: Jacksonville is among the league leaders in cash spending, with well above $300 million, and has four wins to show for it.
Colts GM Chris Ballard’s tenure has come into focus after eight seasons without a division title. The people I’ve talked to there believe Ballard has been in good standing, but the ugly Week 17 loss to the Giants isn’t exactly helpful. The pulse of the building, at least before that game, was that Ballard might be OK. But as was reminded to me — owner Jim Irsay fired Ryan Grigson three weeks after the 2016 season. It seems like anything can happen.
The Titans are 9-24 in GM Ran Carthon’s first two seasons, and with a new stadium opening in 2026, the Titans want to find the winning track sooner than later. But this was clearly a rebuilding situation for Carthon, and people in the building say there seems to be good energy among Callahan, Carthon and vice president of football operations Chad Brinker — a trio that meets frequently on team matters.
I know some people in the league are at least wondering about the future of Atlanta GM Terry Fontenot in light of the $90 million Kirk Cousins experiment that lasted 14 games and the lack of a banner season since taking over in 2021. Atlanta hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2017 and faces a tall order getting there this season after Sunday night’s loss to the Commanders.
