It’s Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season, and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are here to break down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz heading into the slate of games. They’ve been making calls around the league to get the newest information. Plus, they pick out which players should — or shouldn’t — be in your fantasy football playoff lineups.

This week, we’re looking at the players who have a lot riding on the final three weeks of the season. Who has the most at stake, either for contract or future role reasons? We also round up the latest intel on the tightest playoff races and the top candidates for Defensive Player of the Year. And then Dan and Jeremy look back at the Nov. 5 trade deadline and revisit what we thought we knew then; what has changed after six weeks of games?

It’s all here, as our insiders answer big questions and empty their reporters’ notebooks with everything they’ve heard heading into Week 16.

Jump to a section:
Most at stake | Tight playoff races
DPOY | Trade deadline hindsight
Fantasy tips | Latest intel and notes

Which player has the most at stake over the final three weeks?

Graziano: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. Extension-eligible for the first time this offseason, Purdy has been a steal for San Francisco since it made him the last pick of the 2022 draft and named him the starter during that season. His rookie deal has paid him less than $1 million per year on average, and he’s likely to get an extension from the Niners this offseason. But how lucrative that extension will be is one of the key questions facing this team as it confronts various salary cap challenges in the next several offseasons. Do the 49ers have the appetite or even the ability to pay Purdy $50 million per year or more? Will he insist on that? Could the final three games of this nearly-lost season in San Francisco affect these negotiations?

Fowler: Purdy is a fascinating case study for NFL teams’ comfort levels paying top dollar to quarterbacks who are very good but outside the elite group. Five teams — the Dolphins, Lions, Packers, Jaguars and Cowboys — decided in the offseason they were comfortable allocating more than 20% of their yearly payroll to their quarterbacks each season. And the 49ers have already made accommodations for the inevitable. But how San Francisco tries to pull this off signifies a boiling point of sorts. After all, few teams have more star power than the 49ers, with nine returning players making between $15 million and $34 million per year.

The 49ers aren’t afraid of contentious negotiations, either (See: Aiyuk, Brandon). So the structure of a Purdy deal will be key. If the 49ers give in to a massive number, would they insist on a longer-term deal to spread out the cap hits and retain some level of control?

And if for some reason things go poorly and the 49ers need contingency plans, I can think of one quarterback who is playing for a lot: New York’s Aaron Rodgers. What’s interesting about Rodgers is he could finish with 4,000 yards and close to 30 touchdowns on the season. Not bad, amid all that has gone wrong.

Graziano: I’ve covered this league long enough to know that GMs and team owners do objectively damaging things to their franchises all the time when they absolutely should know better. So while I can’t even conceive of one mildly decent reason for a team to turn to Rodgers in 2025 after the way things have gone for him with the Jets, I acknowledge the possibility that some team might. For that reason, I’ll buy into the idea that this could be an important three weeks for Rodgers.

Fowler: Other players who come to mind here …

What’s the boldest thing you’ve heard around the league about the playoff hunt?

Fowler: That the Rams can win it all again, which I did not have on my bingo card in October. But Matthew Stafford is thriving again, and he’s 12-5 when Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are on the field together, averaging 27 points together before last week’s rain-soaked slog in Santa Clara. But Los Angeles is officially the team that favorites don’t want to see in the playoffs — as long as the secondary can hold up. That’s a big “if,” given the lack of high-level personnel on that side. But the defensive line is impressive, and the offensive line is healthy. Sean McVay is, by some accounts, the game’s best playcaller, too.

I was told that McVay told his staff when the Rams entered the Week 6 bye sitting a 1-4 that he was not at all discouraged, knowing that the Rams would be just fine when they get healthy. Now they are, and the results have been good.

Graziano: Yes, the Rams have some people worried. McVay, Stafford and Kupp all won a Super Bowl together just three years ago, and this is a tough offense to stop when everyone is healthy. I do worry about their defense being able to stop anyone in the playoffs, but outside of Philadelphia, I don’t know which NFC contender has a defense it can really count on to shut someone down.

I also think folks are concerned about the Ravens, especially if they win Saturday against the Steelers and can chase them down for the division title. He might be trailing Josh Allen in the MVP race, but Lamar Jackson is playing the best football of his career this season, and some of the people I talk to think the Baltimore defense has the ability to play better than it has shown. If they’re right — and if Derrick Henry is still fresh and running hard once the postseason begins — I don’t think anyone’s going to want to play Baltimore, even if they don’t look as dominant as they did this time last year.

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Fowler: Yeah, the Ravens acquired Henry to give the offense a different dimension come playoff time, and he looks ready to deliver. But I still need to see the defense put together another complete performance against a contending team. It has shown glimpses, particularly in a 35-10 win over Buffalo in Week 4, but not consistently enough. The defensive backfield has been a cluster all season.

I have to say, Tampa Bay is getting people’s attention around the league. The Chargers’ defense is well-regarded, but that didn’t stop the Bucs from putting 506 yards and 40 points on it. Tampa Bay has wins over Detroit and Philadelphia, and it has averaged 23 points in its six losses. That last bit tells me the Bucs are built to win shootouts if the maligned secondary can hold up.

Graziano: I keep coming back to that: They beat the Lions and Eagles! That’s not nothing. Of course, they also lost to the Falcons twice and endured a four-game losing streak from Weeks 7-10 before their Week 11 bye. They’ve been hot, but those wins since the bye (before Sunday) were against the Giants, Panthers and Raiders — not exactly the kinds of teams they’re going to have to beat in the playoffs. The win over the Chargers was impressive, given the way L.A. has played defense this season. But it also feels as if the Chargers are leaking oil a bit at this time of year.

Tampa Bay is on track to win its fourth straight division title, and its offense is putting up points. But the Chargers are the only winning team the Bucs have beaten since September. The Buccaneers also turn the ball over a bit too much for me to feel fantastic about them. Ten teams have more giveaways than Tampa Bay’s 20, but none of them currently occupy a playoff spot in the standings.

What are you hearing on the Defensive Player of the Year race?

Graziano: Pittsburgh edge rusher T.J. Watt is perceived as the favorite right now, and that family’s trophy case might soon be too small to accommodate all of the DPOY trophies. Assuming he finishes the season healthy, I think Watt’s probably a good pick to win it. I saw two guys in Denver this past Sunday who make decent contenders, too — cornerback Pat Surtain II and edge rusher Nik Bonitto. But I don’t think either has the steam to overtake Watt. Edge rusher Trey Hendrickson would have a shot if the Bengals had a better record.

Fowler: Though Watt is the most consistent name that comes up when talking with NFL personnel, this race feels more wide open than in past years. That leaves room for the first defensive back recipient since Stephon Gilmore in 2019. A pair of safeties in Green Bay’s Xavier McKinney and Detroit’s Kerby Joseph have made compelling cases, each tying for the league lead with seven interceptions apiece. And Derek Stingley Jr. has made his star turn in Houston with five interceptions of his own.

Graziano: My favorite sleeper whose name is starting to come up among the top defensive players in the league is the Eagles’ Jalen Carter. It’s probably too soon for him to win it this season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he became a fixture in these discussions in future seasons, maybe as early as next year.

Fowler: Carter is a great call. He gets constant double-teams and fights through holding plays that aren’t called. The Eagles have dozens of examples of that. When you get underofficiated, that means you’re a disruptor in the middle. And the Eagles have another sleeper contender in linebacker Zack Baun, who has 3.5 sacks, four forced fumbles and nine tackles for loss.

What is one thing you’ve changed your mind on since the trade deadline?

Fowler: Well, considering I thought Baltimore giving up fifth- and sixth-round picks for receiver Diontae Johnson was great value, I have definitely changed my mind on that. Those picks look like wasted capital and a colossal misstep from a team that usually wins these deals. Johnson was unhappy in Carolina, and when he got traded to Baltimore, coaches didn’t get him on the field for more than spot duty, which Johnson didn’t appreciate. That led to a suspension for refusing to enter a game, and now he’s away from the team as both sides work on next steps.

It’s shocking Baltimore didn’t have a better plan for a player with savvy route running and the ability to beat man coverage. It seems like a disconnect between how Baltimore coaches and scouts felt about him. If Johnson had stuck in Carolina and put up numbers, he’d be in line for a nice free agent deal. Now, after he has outstayed his welcome with his third team, it’s uncertain what kind of job awaits him in 2025.

Graziano: Yeah, it’s weird, right? All of those big-name wide receiver deals that went down at the deadline have kind of been duds. DeAndre Hopkins has made some big plays for Kansas City but hasn’t been a consistent performer. Amari Cooper has seemingly been a huge benefit to the Bills’ receiver room, but he hasn’t done a ton on the field. Mike Williams has yet to make an impact in Pittsburgh. Davante Adams won a lot of people their first-round fantasy playoff matchups this past week, but he hasn’t helped the Jets win games. Those moves got a lot of attention but haven’t had much impact on the standings.

Fowler: I had a tad bit of skepticism on the Marshon Lattimore trade by Washington. But he looked good in coverage in Sunday’s debut against the Saints. Despite his high-level ability, I wasn’t sure his durability concerns since 2022 and persistent trade rumors for over a year were worth the Commanders sending third-, fourth- and sixth-round picks to New Orleans in exchange for Lattimore and a fifth-rounder. But I’m open to being wrong, especially as he didn’t allow a single reception in coverage against his old team.

Graziano: Well, I mean, the durability concerns were certainly highlighted by the fact the Commanders acquired him at the deadline, but he didn’t get on the field for them until this past week. Seriously, he did play well and addresses a major need for Washington as it gears up for a playoff push. The Commanders have a huge game against the Eagles this week, and a win would keep them mathematically alive in the division race. They also clinch a playoff spot this weekend if they win, the Falcons lose and either the Seahawks or Rams lose. So the Commanders had their eye on the postseason at the deadline and still do. Assuming they make it in, the fact they had to wait for Lattimore won’t bother them as long as he’s on the field helping them fend off opposing passing attacks in January.

What’s your top fantasy football tip of the week?

Fowler: Consider starting Bucs receiver Jalen McMillan as your WR2 or flex. McMillan’s unpredictable place on the depth chart has swung positively in recent weeks, and he has rewarded the faith with nine catches for 134 yards and three touchdowns on 13 targets since Week 14. The Bucs’ passing attack is rolling, and Mike Evans can’t catch everything (can he?). Plus, the Cowboys (this week’s opponent) are short-handed in the secondary with Trevon Diggs (knee) out for the season.

Aaron Rodgers is also a sneaky good play, coming off a three-touchdown day in Jacksonville and 339 passing yards the week before.

Graziano: Other than hope your opponent doesn’t have Josh Allen? I’d try to grab Browns running back Jerome Ford if he’s on waivers in your league. With Nick Chubb out, Ford is the man in that Cleveland backfield, and no team in the league has given up more fantasy points per game to the running back position over the past four weeks than the Bengals, the Browns’ Week 16 opponent. With the Browns switching from Jameis Winston to Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, you have to expect the run game to be paramount for them this week. Ford could be in for a huge game.

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What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano’s notes:

• The Saints will have an interesting situation on their hands this offseason with quarterback Derek Carr, assuming he doesn’t make it back from his concussion and broken left hand in time to play again this season. Carr is under contract for $40 million in 2025. Of that, $10 million is a roster bonus that’s already fully guaranteed and will pay out in March no matter what. The remaining $30 million is guaranteed against injury and becomes fully guaranteed at the start of the new league year in March. If the Saints want to move on from Carr after this season, they’d have to release him before than $30 million becomes fully guaranteed. But because it’s injury-guaranteed, they would have to prove he can pass a physical and be cleared to play before the date on which it becomes fully guaranteed. Otherwise, cutting him and attempting to get out of the injury-guaranteed $30 million probably would result in Carr and the NFLPA filing a grievance to try to claim that money. We don’t know for sure the Saints will move on from him this offseason, but given that a new coaching staff is coming in and the Saints haven’t exactly done much winning with Carr there, it’s reasonable.

• Mike Vrabel’s name is buzzy ahead of the coaching carousel. Some believe the former Titans coach would be a candidate in Dallas if the Cowboys move on from Mike McCarthy. (Jerry Jones continues to say nice things about McCarthy, but he has yet to extend his contract, which expires after this season.) Others believe he’d be a candidate in Las Vegas if the Raiders move on from Antonio Pierce after only one season. New Raiders minority owner Tom Brady is believed to be heavily involved in the decision-making on the coach, and he and Vrabel are of course former teammates. And then there are the rumblings that Vrabel could be a top candidate to take over the job at his alma mater, Ohio State, should the Buckeyes decide to move on from Ryan Day (which could depend on how far Ohio State advances in the playoff). Could Vrabel follow Bill Belichick and his former boss Bill O’Brien from NFL coaching into the college ranks? Regardless, expect to keep hearing his name over the coming weeks. He’s a proven head coach, and those are in short supply as teams look for their solutions at that key position.

Fowler’s notes:

• While in Kansas City on Tuesday, what caught my attention is Andy Reid’s endorsement of Carson Wentz, who might get to play Saturday against Houston if Patrick Mahomes (ankle) can’t go. Mahomes is pushing to play, so perhaps this is a moot point. But here’s what Reid had to say when I asked him about how Wentz has reset his career in Kansas City, and how Reid has helped him: “Yeah, well, I love the way he goes about his business. And you know, when you listen to the quarterback room here, you listen to Pat and you go, ‘This guy, why isn’t this guy starting somewhere?’ You know, that’s the conversations you hear with guys that are in that room, and coaches and players. … Selfishly, I’d like to keep him here, you know, in his position. But I kind of know what’s going on out there with quarterbacks, and this guy is, I think, really good.” After his starting opportunities diminished, Wentz sought out a stable environment in Kansas City, and that could pay off in the long run for the former MVP candidate. (The sense I get is that Mahomes does indeed plan to play. He knows how to protect himself well, and the ankle would need to be in bad shape later in the week for him to sit.)

• A big theme for this coaching cycle is second chances: At least eight coaches who have been fired from high-profile jobs in recent years will be in the mix this cycle: Browns consultant Mike Vrabel, Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores, Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady and Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. I feel pretty confident that this bunch will be well-represented in the interview process. Teams will lean on experience and adaptability as a valuable commodity, and these coaches have had to reinvent themselves. A coach can help his case during interviews when he can discuss, in Nagy’s case, a Bears tenure of 34-31 that is aging well against the backdrop of Chicago’s recent struggles. Or, in Joseph’s case, the adaptability that comes with returning to the team you once head-coached and thriving under Sean Payton. The examples are plentiful for all of these coaches, and I believe they will be a factor over the next two months.

• Does the news that the Titans are planning a quarterback switch this week spell the end for Will Levis in Tennessee? That certainly feels possible. Levis’ core issue is committing turnovers in bunches, and coach Brian Callahan has grown impatient with it. I can see a scenario in which the Titans continue to develop Levis this offseason, given the team might be picking in the back half of the top 10 in what’s considered a weaker QB class. But even as the Titans went back to him Nov. 10, post-shoulder injury, he reverted to his turnover ways Sunday with three interceptions and a fumble against Cincinnati. Mason Rudolph, the likely starter this week, helps Tennessee’s offense play on schedule more efficiently. Where does Tennessee turn this offseason? Rodgers has played well the past two weeks, finally looks healthy and has been linked to the team in the past.

• A few weeks ago, we broke down Deion Sanders’ NFL outlook. I’m bumping this again because a league source told me this about Sanders in recent days: “I think [NFL] teams will want to hear what he has to say.” So it wouldn’t shock to see the Jets or Saints or a team casting a wide net to at least reach out or do its research on him.

• The tentative plan is for Hollywood Brown (sternoclavicular joint) to make his season debut for the Chiefs on Saturday against Houston. Much will depend on this week’s practice and his ability to up his conditioning to game shape, but he has been trending in the right direction.

• The Bucs are poised to win their fourth straight division, which makes me wonder if Tampa Bay will be a sneaky pipeline for the coaching carousel. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen, armed with a top-five offense, is a name that’s gaining traction in league circles. He will be in the mix on the interview circuit at the very least. Assistant general manager John Spytek has been considered for GM jobs in the past and should be part of the process again. Assistant general manager Mike Greenberg interviewed for the Panthers last cycle and could get a look for the Jets’ GM job. And vice president of football research Jacqueline Davidson acquitted herself well at the league’s accelerator program last week. Those deeper in the pipeline — such as director of player personnel Rob McCartney — could be in line for a bigger role down the line, as well.

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• One sneaky name to watch in the carousel is Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula. I hadn’t heard his name much earlier, but I did enough over the past week that it’s worth mentioning. I’m not sure what that means in terms of interviews, but people in the league are noticing his work and demeanor. And the Rams’ tree is usually appealing to teams looking to fill coaching vacancies. Green Bay coordinator Jeff Hafley is also a name that comes to mind here as another first-year NFC coordinator on the radar.

• People I’ve talked to around the league fully expect the Bears to interview Kliff Kingsbury for the head coach job because of his combination of experience, quarterback cachet and previous work with Caleb Williams.