We are not Nostradamus, so we won’t give prophecies. However, a detailed analysis of all the teams and their form and approach mid-season had clearly suggested the emergence of two clusters. The Royals, Knight Riders, Sunrisers and Super Kings – the four best batting units in the competition were in the top cluster. The remaining six were in the bottom cluster and we had predicted that the gap between these two blocks would only increase as the season nears its business end.
With only 12 matches to go in the league stage, our predictions have largely been accurate and the top 4 teams mid-season, in all likelihood, will make it to the playoffs this season.
With Mumbai Indians and Punjab Kings already eliminated (they can at max reach 12 points, the top 3 teams have 14+ points and one of LSG and CSK will definitely reach 14 points) let us look at the best possible scenarios for the remaining teams to make the last four.
KKR and RR both, are on 16 points with three matches still to play. Another win for them will ensure qualification. KKR has a high positive Net Run Rate of 1.453 and should qualify even if it loses all its remaining three encounters. However, given their form, this is highly unlikely and both KKR and RR are expected to win at least one of their remaining three encounters.
KKR should easily overcome the Titans who look out of sorts this season. The Royals should also win their clash against Punjab Kings. However, both the teams have a potentially tricky encounter – the Knight Riders host MI with the latter dominating at the Eden Gardens with a 7-3 record. Also, an eliminated MI have nothing to lose and we may finally see their batting at its destructive best. CSK host the Royals at their bastion on the 12th of May and hold a 6-2 advantage.
Assuming KKR lose to MI and CSK beat RR, the last league match – between KKR and RR on the 19th of May in Guwahati – becomes a shootout for the top position. If the Royals beat KKR, they will top the group with 20 points and KKR should be at number 2 with 18 – they are likely to have a higher net run-rate than SRH/CSK – the two other teams who can potentially finish with 18 and a high positive NRR.
The Sunrisers have two home games left where they have been brilliant this season with a 4-1 record. It was just the other day when they mauled down LSG’s 165 in under 10 overs at the venue. Their openers – Travis Head and Abhishek Sharma have intimidated opposition bowlers in Hyderabad blasting 309 runs between them in just five innings at a strike rate of 243.3. If SRH show the same menacing form at home in their remaining two fixtures, they can finish with 18 points and a very high NRR and can be serious contenders for the number two position.
A win for SRH in the remaining two matches should suffice for a position in the last 4. DC and LSG can also finish at 16 but are way behind on NRR.
CSK haven’t been at their efficient best this season but have somehow still managed to find a way of staying in the hunt for the playoffs – because that is what CSK always does – it somehow makes the last 4! No team has qualified for the playoffs/knockouts more times than CSK who have achieved the feat a record 12 times!
CSK is positioned at number 4 currently with 12 points from 11 matches. If they win their remaining three encounters they will guarantee qualification with 18 points. Two wins should also suffice courtesy their high NRR. CSK should be able to get past a hapless GT in Ahmedabad but have a couple of tricky encounters at the end of their league stage – they host the Royals at home and then face historic rivals RCB in an away game at the Chinnaswamy.
LSG were thrashed by 98 runs at home by KKR and given a walloping by the Sunrisers in Hyderabad. Not only has LSG lost momentum but also gone down sharply on NRR which now stands at -0.769. They play DC and MI in away matches which further makes their task that much difficult. The Capitals will come out all guns blazing at the Arun Jaitley Stadium – the best batting ground in the tournament. MI have nothing to fear any more and may just spoil LSG’s party. LSG need to win both their matches to have a realistic chance of qualifying. But that still may not be enough!
The Capitals took some time to match the aggressive batting template of the Sunrisers and Knight Riders but are now dictating terms at the top of the order having unleashed Jake Fraser-McGurk. DC have won three of their last four encounters and will fancy their chances against LSG on the flat deck at home. However, the clash against a resurgent RCB – who are also still in the hunt – in their own backyard – could get a bit tricky. The problem for DC is that even if they to 16 points they might lose out to the current top 4 on NRR.
RCB have won four on the trot and are making a desperate last-minute dash at qualification. However, even if they register massive wins in their remaining two encounters, they will only reach 14 points, albeit with a high positive NRR. They then need CSK to lose all their remaining three matches and SRH to also register losses in their two games left. Just too much dependency on other matches – RCB are unlikely to make the cut despite a valiant effort in the second half.
GT have certainly not played like Titans this year and are nowhere close to the team who won the league in 2022 and was runner-up in the last edition. GT’s approach at the top of the order is more reminiscent of the passenger trains of the 1990s when 2024 is the year of the Vande Bharat! They have the lowest run-rate in the powerplay and the worst top-order this season. Not surprisingly, they are languishing at the bottom of the table with the worst NRR in the tournament. They have lost their last three matches and a defeat against CSK on Friday will ensure elimination.
For them to even have an outside chance of making the top four, GT need to win all their remaining three matches and then hope and pray that a number of other results go their way. Highly improbable!
