So when Mitchell became the Police Minister late last year, it became a matter of when, not if, Coster would leave the job.

National couldn’t sack Coster without an extraordinarily good reason, as the role of Police Commissioner is statutorily independent of the government, and Coster’s five-year term didn’t end until April next year.

So the odd couple of Mitchell and Coster have been stuck in an awkward marriage of inconvenience.

They’ve tried hard to keep up appearances in public, but it’s obvious their policing philosophies mix like oil and water.

Under a different government, Coster would have anticipated being handed a second term in the top job.

That was never going to happen under National, so Coster confirmed the obvious in July: he would not seek reappointment.

He is a man of considerable intelligence and integrity. So while National didn’t want him in charge of the police, the announcement today that Coster would be the new Secretary of Social Investment came as no surprise.

Conveniently, his early departure also clears the way for Mitchell to pick New Zealand’s next top cop and fast-track them into the job.

The vacancy is expected to be advertised soon, possibly as early as this week.

The process is conducted by the Public Service Commission, which undertakes the vetting, establishes a selection panel and oversees the interview process.

Once that is completed, the PSC puts forward a recommendation, or preferred candidate(s) to Mitchell, the Police Minister.

The final decision is made by the Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, in consultation with Mitchell, which is then taken to the Governor-General to be officially sworn in.

Putting aside the rigorous selection process, National will pick the candidate whom the Government believes can best implement its policies: starting with the rollout of the anti-gang measures in November.

There were always going to be rumours about who will put their hat in the ring.

But most police and political insiders who spoke to the Herald believe it will be a two-horse race between Deputy Commissioner Jevon McSkimming and Assistant Commissioner Richard Chambers.

McSkimming graduated from Police College in 1996 and spent the first 10 years of his career in frontline roles in Auckland, Southland and the West Coast.

He shifted to the Wellington district for several years in leadership positions, before moving to Police National Headquarters in 2010 and rising through the ranks there.

In 2023, McSkimming was promoted to deputy commissioner on the recommendation of Chris Hipkins, who was the Prime Minister at the time, following a Public Service Commission selection process.

“Deputy Commissioner Jevon McSkimming brings a relatively unique career path within New Zealand Police,” according to a report presented by Hipkins to Cabinet.

“He has been a police officer for 27 years but, since 2010, McSkimming has used his operational skills across the organisation to shape strategy, service delivery and resolutions, financial planning, arms administration, ICT and infrastructure.”

Rated for his intelligence and commercial nous, McSkimming is widely expected to apply for the Commissioner vacancy.

He was appointed as a deputy commissioner along with Tania Kura, although the Herald understands she currently has no ambition to become New Zealand’s first female Commissioner of Police.

The pair were favoured for promotion over Assistant Commissioner Richard Chambers, although with the change of government, he is now considered to be the favourite for the top job.

Like McSkimming, Chambers joined the police in 1996 and also worked on the frontline in Auckland.

Since then, his career path has followed a more traditional route than his rival.

After qualifying as a detective, Chambers later moved to Wellington and was appointed as the area commander for Lower Hutt in 2007.

Stints as the district commander for Tasman and Auckland followed before Chambers moved back to Wellington as an assistant commissioner in 2016.

He held several portfolios in that time including oversight of serious and organised crime investigations, as well as the police districts in the upper half of the North Island.

Chambers is a familiar face in police districts around the country and is considered by frontline officers to have the most operational experience among the current executive.

After being overlooked for promotion internally, Chambers went on secondment earlier this year and accepted a senior role at Interpol, the global network of police forces, based in France.

When he got the job as Interpol’s director of organised and emerging crime, Chambers told the Herald that he was excited about the new opportunity but also looking forward to returning to the New Zealand Police one day.

That could be sooner than anyone expected.