A month remains in the NFL season, but about one-quarter of the league’s teams already have their eyes set on 2025. Seven teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and eight have three wins or fewer. For those teams, the next four weeks are about building for the future as teams vie for the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
The Jaguars’ win over the Tennessee Titans means Jacksonville has all but exited the race for the first pick. Now 3-10 after the win, Jacksonville’s odds to pick No. 1 fell from 14 percent on Dec. 6 to 2 percent after Sunday’s game.
The win now makes this a two-team race between the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders. Our models have the No. 1 pick going to these two teams in a combined 76 percent of outcomes. No other team has higher than 10 percent odds to secure the first draft pick. The race is tight behind the Giants and Raiders, though. Six teams (Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers) are 3-10 with four games left to play.
GO DEEPER
Saints beat Giants on blocked field goal, lose Carr to injury: Takeaways
A late-game surge put the Giants in position to tie Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints with a 35-yard field goal with 11 seconds on the clock. A Giants overtime win would have potentially jeopardized their spot atop the draft board. Instead, the Saints blocked Graham Gano’s kick, won 14-11 and pushed the Giants into the driver’s seat for the top pick.
The full week of preparation wasn’t enough to make Drew Lock (21-for-49, 227 yards, one INT) look like a winning quarterback, despite the Giants’ defense holding an opponent to under 300 total yards for just the third time this season. New York now faces four teams still in the playoff conversation, the sixth-hardest remaining strength of schedule in the league.
Remaining schedule: Baltimore Ravens, at Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, at Philadelphia Eagles.
GO DEEPER
Buccaneers take NFC South lead with 28-13 win over Raiders: Takeaways
Despite losing their ninth straight game of the season, the Raiders lost ground in the race for the No. 1 pick because of strength of schedule. While the Giants have the sixth-highest strength of schedule, Las Vegas’ remaining schedule ranks 26th in the league over the last four weeks.
That may get balanced out by news from Sunday’s 28-13 loss to the Buccaneers: Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell was carted off the field with a knee injury late in the third quarter. If O’Connell misses significant time, it would leave the Raiders with third-string quarterback Desmond Ridder for the remainder of the season.
Graphic ID:
Remaining schedule: Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, at New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Chargers
The Patriots were on a bye this week, and the one-game deficit in the race for the No. 1 pick means they will need help from other teams if they hope to improve their draft stock. Assuming the Raiders and Giants both pick up wins to make this a race, New England has the second-hardest remaining schedule in the league to keep it grounded.
Remaining schedule: at Arizona Cardinals, at Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills.
GO DEEPER
Dolphins keep playoff hopes alive with 32-26 OT win vs. Jets: Takeaways
The Jets’ overtime loss to the Dolphins kept them in this race, but all signs point to them getting at least one more win over the next month. The Jets had a season-high 402 offensive yards Sunday, while Aaron Rodgers had his first 300-yard passing game since December 2021.
That offensive surge comes as the Jets lost their third straight game by six points or fewer despite missing key pieces on both sides of the ball. The Jets are playing adequately, and their remaining schedule leaves the door open for a potential win.
Remaining schedule: at Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, at Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins.
GO DEEPER
Eagles clinch playoff berth with win, Cardinals loss: Takeaways
In terms of tank jobs, the Panthers are running as good of an operation as one can. The Panthers have lost one-score games to the Chiefs and Eagles in two of their last three games, a balancing act that shows competence while keeping draft stock high.
The Panthers are also the only 3-10 team not eliminated from playoff contention, putting them in the unusual spot of simultaneously competing for the No. 1 pick and a division title. Their last four games can push them in either direction.
Remaining schedule: Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Atlanta Falcons.
GO DEEPER
Russell Wilson, Steelers shake off Browns 27-14: Takeaways
Two things can be true at the same time: The Browns are playing better under Jameis Winston, and the Browns will remain in the running for the top pick for the rest of the season.
The Browns have the fourth-hardest strength of schedule remaining, playing all four games against teams still vying for a playoff berth. Playing Winston at quarterback gives them the highs necessary to win games and the lows needed to keep Cleveland with a longshot chance at the top pick.
Remaining schedule: Kansas City Chiefs, at Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, at Baltimore Ravens.
(Photo: Kathryn Riley / Getty Images)
