Nearly all the debate in the final hours of College Football Playoff deliberation centered around whether SMU or Alabama should claim the final spot. It was an argument between how harshly the committee should punish championship game losers in comparison to teams sitting at home, but also how much a team should be rewarded for its strength of schedule, even if it managed to lose a quarter of its games.
And it was the wrong debate.
The moment I saw the actual 12-team bracket, the hairs being split between two flawed teams no longer mattered to me. All I saw was that the No. 1 team in the country, Oregon, arguably has the most difficult path to the semifinals of any team that received a first-round bye, and it makes no sense. The easiest way to solve the “conference championship game vs. SOS” debate is to get rid of automatic byes for the top-four conference champions.
Boise State and Arizona State earned their right to play in the College Football Playoff, and both are excellent football teams who have accomplished the primary goal we ask of every team: win as many games as possible. But winning your conference should guarantee you nothing more than a spot in the field.
It shouldn’t come with a bye.
College football has already followed college basketball’s lead by expanding its postseason tournament, and it should take it one more step in basketball’s direction. Conference champions are guaranteed a berth in the NCAA Tournament, but there’s nothing that says they’re guaranteed a top-four seed. Some conference champions received 16-seeds. Why should football be any different?
Clemson is the 12-seed in the CFP because it’s the No. 16 team in the rankings, making it the lowest-ranked team in the field, but it also won its conference. Why treat four conference champions differently than the fifth? (OK, the answer to that question is it was never supposed to be Clemson in that spot.) Regardless, it makes no sense. If Arizona State is the No. 12 team in the CFP Rankings, and the 11th-best team in the field by that metric, it should be the No. 11 seed. Boise State should be the No. 9 seed.
Byes should be reserved for the best teams, which solves the issues the committee created this year. Conference champions receive auto berths, which ensures winning your league is important.Losers of conference championship games aren’t punished as harshly for losing those games and remain in the field. Teams that didn’t win their league but played tougher schedules and had a more difficult path can still be eligible for a bye or get a first-round home game. Everybody gets something.
Furthermore, it won’t lead to a situation like the one we’re dealing with this season, where Oregon, the only undefeated team in the country and No. 1 seed, will have to face either Ohio State (No. 3 in FPI and Sagarin ratings) or Tennessee (No. 7 in FPI, No. 9 in Sagarin) in their quarterfinal.
If Ohio State beats Tennessee, there’s a real chance the Buckeyes could be favored over Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. In no world should the No. 1 seed be an underdog in its first playoff game. If we simply based seeding on the final CFP Rankings, Oregon would face the winner of No. 8 Indiana or No. 9 Boise State. Neither is easy (Oregon knows firsthand how tough Boise State can be), but it’s much fairer to the team who earned the No. 1 seed than the current format.
Here’s how the playoff would look if we went off the CFP Rankings.
(1) Oregon
(2) Georgia
(3) Texas
(4) Penn State
(5) Notre Dame vs. (12) Clemson — winner faces (4) Penn State
(6) Ohio State vs. (11) Arizona State — winner faces (3) Texas
(7) Tennessee vs. (10) SMU — winner faces (2) Georgia
(8) Indiana vs. (9) Boise State — winner faces (1) Oregon
It’s a much better balance of matchups in every round and rewards the best teams in the country by increasing their odds to reach the semifinals. That should be the goal.
If the Pac-12 was still a factor, and if Texas and Oklahoma were in the Big 12, rewarding the top four conference champions with a bye makes a little more sense. But in the current climate, in which so many of the sports best programs reside in two leagues, it doesn’t.
There will be plenty of changes coming to the College Football Playoff and its format in the years to come. This should be the first.
