HENDERSON, Nev. — Antonio Pierce doesn’t care. The head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders (3-12) knows there’s speculation about his job security and that many people consider him a lame duck heading into the offseason. But he’s not mailing it in or worrying about the draft order.
“We don’t do this to lose,” Pierce said Monday. “None of that s— matters to us. The only thing that matters is winning. That’s all we want to do.”
But we care. We know some fans are upset about likely losing the chance to draft first overall and land a top quarterback, so here is our belated gift: a look at the Raiders’ best path to Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward in the draft.
With their win over the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) last Sunday, the Raiders dropped from the No. 2 slot to No. 6 in the projected order atop the 2025 NFL Draft. They now are on target to pick behind, in order, the New York Giants (2-13) at No. 1, New England Patriots (3-12), the Jaguars, the Tennessee Titans (3-12) and the Cleveland Browns (3-12).
That’s caused a not-insignificant segment of the Raiders fan base to be up in arms about their lessened chances of drafting one of the top quarterback prospects, namely Sanders of Colorado or Ward of Miami. For those fans, the good news is that there are two weeks left to play in the 2024 regular season and their team could still move back up the draft board.
Updated NFL Draft order (NYG clear favorites for No. 1 pick)
1. Giants (2-13)
2. Patriots (3-12)
3. Jaguars (3-12)
4. Titans (3-12)
5. Browns (3-12)
6. Raiders (3-12)
7. Panthers (4-11)
8. Jets (4-11)
9. Bears (4-11)— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) December 23, 2024
The Raiders travel to play the New Orleans Saints (5-10) on Sunday. Las Vegas has shown it can lose to any team, but the Saints may be beatable if they’re without Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and old friend Derek Carr, who are all dealing with injuries.
In the season finale, the Raiders will host the Los Angeles Chargers (9-6), who beat them 22-10 in Week 1. The Chargers haven’t yet clinched a playoff spot and, even if they do in Week 17, they may still be playing for seeding in Week 18. Divisional games can get weird, but unless the Chargers have locked up their playoff positioning and decide to rest their starters, it’s tough to see the Raiders knocking them off.
Yet how the Raiders fare won’t be the only factor in where they will be slotted in the first round of the draft. If they end up tied with another team, the first tiebreaker is strength of schedule. If teams have the same strength of schedule, then division or conference tiebreakers come into play. If those aren’t applicable, then it goes to head-to-head matchups. It gets complicated if those aren’t applicable, but we’ll spare you those details for now.
Here’s a breakdown of what lies ahead for the teams the Raiders trail in the draft order.
With their televised mishandling of Saquon Barkley this offseason, the Giants are why no team should want to be on “Hard Knocks.” Not to mention owner John Mara prophetically lamenting the possibility of Barkley thriving with the Eagles.
It’s a great reason to clean house if you’re Mara, and there is no better way to do so than with the No. 1 pick. The Giants are like a Japanese bullet train in that regard, losing 10 straight games with the subtlety of a circus clown. Last week, Drew Lock threw two pick sixes.
Lock injured his shoulder but is expected to play Sunday against the Colts. That’s good news for Giants fans, for while Lock has a good arm, his lack of pocket awareness and disdain for ball security will keep the speed train moving.
The Giants finish at Philadelphia, which will likely have the No. 2 seed in the NFC wrapped up and could rest quarterback Jalen Hurts. But the Giants were embarrassed by the Eagles 28-3 in their first meeting, and Kenny Pickett is not that terrible.
So, Raiders fans, tip your cap to the Giants. This is how you (implicitly) tank for the top pick. The Raiders are not passing the Giants. Neither is anyone else.
A New England radio station played Dido’s song “Thank You” on Monday, saluting the Raiders for beating the Jaguars and letting the Patriots move up to No. 2 on the draft board … so they can (perhaps) turn around and trade the selection to the Raiders for a boatload of picks.
That’s because the Patriots got their franchise quarterback this year in Drake Maye. The 22-year-old has overcome a brutal offensive line (its 72 quick pressures allowed are tied with the Bengals for the most in the NFL) and timid receivers to keep the Patriots in half of their games over the last two months. They are 2-6 over that span with four losses coming by a total of 13 points, and Maye is good for two or three great throws on the run a week.
That makes their hold on the No. 2 spot a bit tenuous. They host the Chargers on Sunday, and given Los Angeles’ lack of offensive firepower, an upset is possible. In Week 18, the Patriots host the Bills, who may have nothing to play for since the Kansas City Chiefs already locked up the No. 1 seed.
In short, Patriots fans shouldn’t thank the Raiders quite yet. It could be the other way around in two weeks.
GO DEEPER
Is there anything worth salvaging from this year’s Raiders roster?
The Jaguars and Titans play each other Sunday in Duval, so we grouped them together. Barring a tie, one will fall down the draft order. If they tie, then they both will. Either outcome would be a positive for those rooting for the Raiders’ draft fortunes, but the most ideal would be a Tennessee win.
That’s because Jacksonville just signed quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million contract and isn’t a threat to take a quarterback in Round 1. Tennessee, on the other hand, recently benched 2023 second-round pick Will Levis and will probably be exploring its options. Those rooting for the Raiders to draft a quarterback could breathe a little easier with a Titans victory.
Looking ahead to Week 18, the Jaguars play the Indianapolis Colts (7-8) on the road, while the Titans host the Houston Texans (9-7). The Colts are still in the playoff picture, so they could have something to play for. And though the Texans have already clinched the AFC South, they may be jockeying with the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) or Ravens for playoff seeding.
It would help the Raiders’ draft positioning if both the Jaguars and Titans won in Week 18, but that feels like wishful thinking. Nonetheless, the Raiders will leapfrog at least one of these teams as long as they lose out.
The Raiders beat the Browns in Week 4 — the day before then-injured receiver Davante Adams requested a trade — so Cleveland holds the tiebreaker in the draft order. To move ahead of the Browns, the Raiders need them to win at least one of their last two games.
Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is set to have a $72.935 million cap hit in 2025, so he’ll likely be on the roster, but he suffered a torn Achilles in Week 7 and has been awful since Cleveland traded for him in 2022. It would be organizational malpractice if the Browns didn’t seek an upgrade at quarterback.
The Browns host the Miami Dolphins (7-8) this week and travel to play the Baltimore Ravens (11-5) in Week 18. The Dolphins have been notoriously terrible in cold-weather games since drafting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. When it’s 45 degrees or colder, Tagovailoa has an 0-7 record. While it’s forecast to be 55 in Cleveland on Sunday, it’s supposed to be windy and rainy. Maybe the Browns can take advantage of the bad weather and upend the Dolphins.
Topping the Ravens, who could be playing to clinch the AFC North, on the road will be much more difficult. It doesn’t bode well for the Raiders’ odds of moving ahead of the Browns if Cleveland can’t beat the Dolphins.
GO DEEPER
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(Photo of Deshaun Watson being tackled by K’Lavon Chaisson and Charles Snowden: Steve Marcus / Getty Images)
