3 overrated teams in preseason US LBM Coaches Poll
Blake Toppmeyer of the USA TODAY Network offers three overrated teams in the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll.
Preseason polls give college football fans their first hint at the best teams for the upcoming season. There’s always the Associated Press rankings and the US LBM Coaches Poll, but in 2024, we have another data set to consider: College Football 25 team ratings.
For the first time since 2013, EA Sports can weigh in with their picks for the best teams in the nation. The Orlando-based video game company released their top-25 team ratings June 28, and gamers learned every FBS team’s rating when the game launched July 16.
How do the College Football 25 ratings compare with the traditional polls? The first Coaches Poll of the 2024 season came out Monday, August 5. The Associated Press preseason poll is due out Monday, August 12, which will surely provide even more differences in opinion.
First, let’s take a look at the polls, and then we’ll break down the biggest differences. One thing to note: Multiple teams have the same overall rating in the EA Sports system, so for example, Florida State and Penn State have the same overall rating, but FSU is No. 12 and PSU is No. 9. We’re treating them as effectively equal in the eyes of CFB25.
Both systems like the Rebels, but the coaches REALLY like them. They might just have a thing for the SEC (see below) as, despite being sixth in the nation, Ole Miss is fourth in its own conference in this poll. Lane Kiffin’s crew went 11-2 in 2023 with losses to only Alabama and Georgia, and with Jaxson Dart back at quarterback, Ole Miss is feeling good about its chances.
EA Sports‘ rankings might have been less high on the Rebels because of relatively weaker recruiting classes for 2024: On3 ranked them 20th and 247 Sports ranked them 21st. The next team on this list had a similar poll-to-game discrepancy and similar recruiting rankings as well. It’s just a theory, though. Ole Miss gets to host Oklahoma and Georgia this season while its toughest road test comes October 12 against LSU.
This is the highest variance between the two systems. The Tigers have an 84 overall rating in CFB25, good for 12th in the new 16-team SEC. That puts them behind Arkansas and even with Auburn, Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina, none of which made the preseason Coaches Poll (of those teams, Auburn received the most votes with 25).
Mizzou was one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2023 season, going 11-2 and beating Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. They were picked to finish sixth in the SEC preseason poll, but the EA Sports raters seem to think they were a flash in the pan.
EA Sports is clearly impressed with the Tigers’ roster. Their 90 rating on defense is tied for third in the game, and linebacker Barrett Carter’s 94 player rating is tied for 11th. But the Coaches Poll shows Dabo Swinney still has some doubters after three straight three-loss seasons, including a 9-4 campaign in 2023.
Clemson will get an early chance to prove the naysayers wrong with a Week 1 tilt against No. 1 Georgia.
We can group these two together since they’re more or less the same story. Both went 9-4 in 2023, and both won their bowl games in Orlando (though the Wildcats’ Pop-Tarts Bowl win certainly will be remembered more). But the CFB25 ratings are not kind to either of them, at least in comparison to the rest of their conferences. Tennessee’s 83 overall rating is tied with Mississippi State for second-to-last in the SEC, while K-State’s 84 is tied with Texas Tech for sixth in a weaker Big 12.
Both EA Sports and the Coaches Poll rank them as solid to good teams. The Vols have a tough test September 7 against NC State in Charlotte before they host Alabama in October and head to Georgia in November. K-State was picked second in the Big 12 preseason poll, and their three toughest opponents by that poll — Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona — will be coming to Manhattan.
The Miami Hurricanes have a roster that should push their team into the top 10 just about every year of the Mario Cristobal era. They have three players in the top-100 of CFB25’s ratings (running back Damien Martinez, defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. and receiver Xavier Restrepo), and transfer Cam Ward should be an upgrade at quarterback. The U has an offensive rating of 89, tied for fifth in the game.
But the coaches remember how the Hurricanes have performed on the field. Cristobal is a combined 12-13 in his first two seasons at Miami with some baffling in-game decisions (see the infamous Georgia Tech game last season). UM gets to win back the state of Florida when it faces the Gators in Gainesville to open the season and hosts FSU on October 26.
After two bad years saw the end of the Jimbo Fisher era, the Aggies are looking for new life under former Duke coach Mike Elko. EA Sports has them rated highly on both offense (85, tied for 17th) and defense (84, T-18) and tied with Ole Miss for fifth in the SEC at 88 overall.
The coaches, on the other hand, have Texas A&M ranked as the ninth-best SEC team in the preseason poll. They’ll get an early opportunity to prove themselves when they host Notre Dame to kick off the season. The Aggies will avoid most of the top-tier SEC teams this season, with a home date against in-state rival Texas closing the regular season.
The variance here is the least surprising. The Buffaloes received only two votes in the preseason Coaches Poll, likely because of the way they flamed out in 2023. After winning its first three games in thrilling fashion, Colorado crashed at the start of conference play, winning just one more game and finishing 4-8.
The Buffs certainly have star power with quarterback Shedeur Sanders and receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, and coach Deion Sanders’ energy is infectious enough that EA Sports was always going to make sure they had a solid early rating. How much the porous offensive line has improved will determine who was right at season’s end.
Both of these teams got 87 overall ratings in CFB25, so we’ll group them together here. The Badgers received 17 votes in the preseason Coaches Poll. Meanwhile, the Hokies were the closest team on this list to break into the preseason Coaches Poll, receiving 64 votes to come three spots short of the rankings.
Wisconsin will get to test its mettle with a home date September 14 vs. Alabama, followed two weeks later by a trip out west to face USC. Virginia Tech has an easier slate, with its toughest tasks a road trip in September to Miami and a home showdown in November with Clemson.
