Collegiate basketball fans around the country are now just days away from being treated with another season of UAAP Basketball.
As the dust settles on a dramatically long and eventful offseason, there are few ways to better celebrate the hype of a brand new UAAP season than imagining what everything will be like when it’s over again.
Attempting to forecast a league as unpredictable as the UAAP is often a fool’s errand. While the many different preseason leagues are adequate indicators for each team’s style of play, rarely do the results of those leagues actually mimic how well a team actually performs when the UAAP starts.
Even though these projections often go in vain, that won’t stop me from trying, and spending the rest of the season praying they come true in hopes of dodging the ire of UAAP fans whose schools I predicted to end lower than they actually will.
Other than the two finalists in last year’s UAAP season, the rest of the rankings are nearly impossible to predict correctly. Despite all the talent risking residency and jumping from team to team, the UAAP is still deeper than it’s ever been. Any of the other six teams can jump up the ranks and make a surprise run.
With all that out of the way, here are my predictions for the UAAP Season 87 standings.
Projected Record: 12-2
What else is left to be said that hasn’t already been said about the Green Archers?
After overcoming the University of the Philippines in the finals of Season 86, the boys from Taft continued their reign of terror over the offseason. La Salle somehow came away with even more titles over the break, earning trophies in the 2024 PBA D-League Aspirants Cup, PinoyLiga, Filoil EcoOil Tournament, and even internationally in the World University Basketball Series.
The Green and White’s domination didn’t stop with just their fellow collegiate teams too; PBA teams like Rain or Shine and Converge felt their wrath in the Kadayawan Cup, even if coach Yeng Guiao’s squad took the title in the end.
The not-so-secret key to La Salle’s success is still the all-around production of Kevin Quiambao. Barring an uncorrected Mark Nonoy vertical jump-level development leap from someone like Francis Lopez, Quiambao will still be the unanimous best player in the league this season.
Quiambao spearheaded La Salle to the league’s best offense in Season 86 (100.59 Offensive Rating per Ryan Alba), constantly creating rim pressure with his size and kicking it out to La Salle’s plethora of knockdown shooters. Though the squad lost many of their high volume floor spacers in Evan Nelle (26% on 5.30 3PA/g), Mark Nonoy (39% on 4.69 3PA/g), and Francis Escandor (23% on 2.79 3PA/g), the addition of Alex Konov along with increased minutes for Earl Abadam and Joshua David should more than make up for it.
The most prized insertion to La Salle’s lineup is the presence of Henry Agunanne, their new FSA from Centro Escolar University set to replace Bright Nwanko at the five. The 6-foot-11 Nigerian big man showcased his defensive ability and soft touch around the rim all offseason, and between him and the uber-athletic Michael Phillips, La Salle has the option to field an imposing rim protector for all 40 minutes of the game.
The only concern plaguing the Archers is their glaring need for a guard to step up in place of the steady Nelle and the sporadic Nonoy. When you have a 6-foot-7 point forward with proven international basketball experience on your side though, head coach Topex Robinson has all the time in the world to think of a solution.
Projected Record: 11-3
University of the Philippines are gunning for their fourth straight UAAP Finals appearance in Season 87, and they look just as primed as ever to go for the title again.
Though they fell short against the Green Archers in three games last season, the coach Goldwyn Montverde-led squad was by far the best defensive team in the league, boasting an 85.03 defensive rating and suffocating teams with their size, length, and versatility.
Entering this season though, the Fighting Maroons somehow managed to get even bigger in the frontcourt with the additions of Quentin Millora-Brown, Gani Stevens, and new FSA Dikachi Udodo.
Millora-Brown bounced around different NCAA schools in the US, but in his final season with Citadel Graduate College he flashed an all-around game, averaging 11.2 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks. While the UAAP is far too familiar with what Stevens brings to the table after his impressive stint with UE, Udodo himself showed he can be just as impactful as the other two bigs with impressive showings in the preseason.
Even with all that new talent coming in, the real key to UP’s success lies in the hands of reigning rookie of the year Francis Lopez. He was already a key piece in a stacked UP team last season, and the 6-foot-5 high flyer is set for an even bigger role this year.
On the defensive end, Lopez’s ability to defend 1-5 while offering secondary rim protection with his height and athleticism was already enough to place him in conversations alongside the top players of the league. Add to that the potential for growth as a playmaker, shooter, and his already impressive finishing ability, and you’re looking at the only player with a realistic shot at dethroning Quiambao for MVP.
The issue facing UP ahead of Season 87 is their struggles with spacing the floor. The Maroons were a bottom three team in the league at both 3pt% (27.7%) and 3pt attempt rate (36.24%) per Ryan Alba. Those issues only compounded with the loss of CJ Cansino, who led the team in attempts with 5.62 3PA, and knocked down 36.99% of them.
UP’s overwhelming size inside will be more than enough to dominate the rest of the league in the elimination rounds, but questions about their shooting ability could potentially limit their ceiling.
Projected Record: 8-6
Despite poor injury luck plaguing the Bulldogs, head coach Jeff Napa’s squad managed to put up a decent run in Season 86. The Bulldogs were just two games away from taking the twice-to-beat advantage from La Salle or UP. Though they were blown out of the water in the final four by the eventual champions, they were a thorn to the two powerhouses’ side all year long.
Even with the loss of the fiery Kean Baclaan that may limit their ceiling, National U’s squad is so well built that his absence may just be negligible. Sure, Baclaan was one of their top dogs in the past two years, but NU is more than ready to unleash the other hounds they’ve kept caged for this season.
Reinhard Jumamoy, the former UAAP Boys Most Valuable Player, had a thoroughly underrated season in his rookie year. Even with Steve Nash Enriquez dealing with a jaw injury, Napa was adamant at keeping Jumamoy as a bench piece, letting him integrate into the system slowly but surely.
Jumamoy thrived within that small role, lurking under the radar as one of the most efficient offensive weapons in the league. The 5’11 former NUNS guard shot 47% from three on a steady 1.42 attempts per game, while going 13/26 from the rest of the floor. Scaled up per 30 minutes, Jumamoy averaged 14.05 points, 5.30 rebounds, and 4.24 assists per game on 58.63% TS per Ryan Alba.
While there’s no certainty that the efficiency will hold up in a larger role, NU fans still have reason to be excited about Jumamoy’s sophomore season.
Even with the idea of a development leap from Jumamoy, the meanest and baddest dog in NU’s pound is still the ever-reliable Jake Figueroa. To call Figueroa’s run in Season 86 a breakout year would be a significant understatement. The 6-foot-2 forward did everything coach Napa asked him to at an elite level, emerging as arguably the best point of attack defender in the UAAP.
Per game, the former NUNS standout was first in points (12.14 PPG), second in rebounds (6.79 RPG), third in assists (1.64 APG), first in steals (1.50) and second in blocks (0.50) on the team. Google the term all-around player and you’ll likely be flooded with pictures of #20.
Figueroa’s two-way impact steered NU to the fourth-best offense (93.64 Offensive Rating) and the fourth-best defense (90.30 Defensive Rating) in the per Ryan Alba, and there’s little reason to believe that the Bulldogs will be any less elite on both sides of the ball this season. Barring any further injury setbacks, the Blue and Gold will be primed to give UP and La Salle a challenge at the top.
Projected Record: 7-7
Most fans of the UAAP find it difficult to see how Ateneo can still soar to the heights they once reached after they suffered the most chaotic off-season of any UAAP school. The Blue-and-White lost key pieces like Kai Ballungay and Jared Brown to the pros, stumbled their way through preseason leagues with underwhelming performances, and then proceeded to be stripped of even more weapons in Mason Amos, Kobe Demisana, and Raffy Celis.
Safe to say, the Blue Eagles Band of Brothers are more fractured than they ever were before. However, the pieces that do remain Ateneo’s side are still gifted enough to make Ateneo a sneakily dangerous team. Even in the aftermath of its tumultuous offseason, what remains of Ateneo is a squad with a plethora of long wings that can shoot, defend, and move the ball around – all commanded by one of the best guard prospects in the Tab Baldwin Era.
Considering how much talent has gone in and out of Katipunan in the past few seasons that may seem a bit hyperbolic, but it’s praise befitting a talent of Jared Bahay’s level. The feisty 5’9 point guard’s ability to consistently shoot off the dribble, get two feet in the paint, and find the right pass at his age makes him as, if not more, UAAP-ready than guys like SJ Belangel and Forthsky Padrigao.
Alongside Bahay, a bright spot in the past few months for Ateneo was the development of Shawn Tuano and Andrew Bongo. The two wings were sparingly used in Season 86, but their performances in the preseason indicate that larger roles are coming for them both in the upcoming year.
Tuano became a fan favorite last season due to his cheery and amusing celebrations on the bench, but this season, they can rely on him to have much more of an impact on the court. The 6-foot-3 Filipino-American gives the Blue and White a versatile weapon with his ability to catch and shoot and keep the ball moving by making the next pass.
In contrast, Bongo saw the floor more than Tuano in Season 85, but struggled significantly to adjust to the UAAP game. The 6-foot-4 wing was asked to space the floor for Ateneo but failed to find his shot all season, going 1/13 from three. More recently though, Bongo has been trusted to put the ball on the floor more, making use of his wide frame more to finish around the basket and draw fouls.
With other reliable veterans like Chris Koon and Josh Lazaro still around to impose their championship experience, Ateneo still has the pieces to remain a fundamentally sound defensive team with enough options on offense to fill their gaps. While questions about their ability to consistently attack the rim due to their glaring lack of size will arise, head coach Tab Baldwin is as trustworthy a coach as any to solve these problems.
While teams like UST and UE boast far more reliable star power than the squad from Katipunan, I can see the Blue Eagles just barely edging the other two schools out for the final spot in the final four in season 87.
