The regular season is finally here and Week 1 got off to a … well it got here.
With significant free agency and draft moves, we expected immediate production from several teams and standout rookies. Unfortunately, we were met with some underwhelming results. Let’s take a look at key Week 1 under-performers, examine where they went wrong and whether we should panic.
The matchup between Atlanta and Pittsburgh was flat-out ugly for both offenses. While we expected Pittsburgh to struggle with the last-minute Justin Fields start, the lack of production from the Falcons was shocking. Cousins completed just 16 passes on 26 attempts for 155 yards and a touchdown. Drake London had only two receptions for 15 yards. Kyle Pitts grabbed the only touchdown but had just three receptions for 26 yards. Bijan Robinson was the one bright spot with 18 carries for 68 yards, catching all five of his targets for 43 yards.
Even that single bright spot failed to produce RB1 numbers. Robinson was outperformed by players like Alexander Mattison and J.K. Dobbins. Overall, every Falcon outside of Ray-Ray McCloud underperformed compared to their ADP and that’s a major issue when fantasy managers made such significant investments in Robinson and London.
This matchup was a poor draw to begin the season and while I expected more from the Falcons, I didn’t expect ceiling performances from any of them. When healthy, Pittsburgh’s defense can be one of the most difficult matchups in the league. Atlanta also made significant upgrades to its defense, so it’s not shocking this was a low-scoring, defensive matchup where both offenses struggled.
We also need to account for the significant layoff for Cousins. Lack of usage in the preseason means that early games might require some ramp-up time as he continues to build rapport with teammates.
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The Patriots came into this game as big underdogs and pulled out the win. The entire Bengals offense failed to produce, outside of Zack Moss’ single touchdown. Burrow had 21 completions for just 164 yards and no touchdowns. Ja’Marr Chase was the Bengals’ leading receiver, catching all six of his targets for 62 yards. Sleeper running back Chase Brown had just three carries for 11 yards. Even Evan McPherson had just six fantasy points.
The Bengals’ offseason was rather chaotic and it’s very possible that chaos carried into the season. The Bengals were without Tee Higgins who dealt with offseason contract drama and suffered a hamstring injury during practice this week. Ja’Marr Chase had contract drama that carried up to kickoff and remains unresolved. He also popped up on the injury report with an illness.
The Bengals moved on from Joe Mixon for a more budget-friendly backfield. Although the majority of the key offensive players were returning, a lack of preseason cohesion showed in this game as the Bengals looked overwhelmed and out of sync.
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen the Bengals struggle early in the season. Last year, we attributed it to Joe Burrow’s calf strain. Burrow’s highest fantasy finish in his first four games of 2023 was QB21. Burrow’s season-ending wrist injury is fully healed so injury isn’t an excuse for this year’s terrible start. The Bengals are too talented to continue this level of play throughout the season and it’s possible we underestimated the continued strength of New England’s defense. We shouldn’t panic over one game for the Bengals.
Chicago pulled out a 24-17 win against Tennessee, an excellent start to the season for the team as a whole. However, the win was carried by the defense. The offense was unproductive across the board. Caleb Williams completed just 14 of his 29 attempts for only 93 yards and 15 yards on the ground. DJ Moore was the leading receiver with five receptions for 36 yards but Keenan Allen was the target hog with four receptions on 11 targets for 29 yards. Rome Odunze was the clear WR3 with just one reception. Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett each had a single target. The running back room provided minimal production as D’Andre Swift had just 10 carries for 30 yards and Khalil Herbert had just two carries for four yards.
Expectations were high for Williams and the offense looked solid in short spurts during the preseason. However, the preseason production doesn’t always carry over into the regular season and it showed this week.
Tennessee did an excellent job of upgrading its defense and should be an overall stronger matchup in 2024. However, we do need a bit of a reality check here. Williams has incredible upside but still needs to develop.
Next week is a difficult matchup against Houston. Moore and Allen are the clear top targets and are start-worthy. Swift is the clear RB1 but may be matchup-dependent, particularly if Williams continues to avoid checking down. However, we may need to pause on Odunze. By no means should you drop him, but recognize Odunze is a rookie and, like Williams, needs to continue to develop and earn a larger role in the offense. His time will come.
