• Wide receivers are set to dominate the early portion of fantasy drafts: Led by CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill, there are some great options to target as the first picks for fantasy managers.
• 20 rookies inside the top 100: With Marvin Harrison Jr. being the clear top choice, see where the rest of the 2024 rookie class lands as they enter their first NFL seasons.
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Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes
Breaking fantasy football rankings down into tiers helps fantasy managers better understand what separates each group and how to value each player at the position for this coming season.
These five wide receivers are more than likely going to get drafted within the first half of the first round in most fantasy drafts this offseason. CeeDee Lamb led the position in targets (179) last season at just 25 years old and will be a threat to do so once again as Dak Prescott’s primary target in the Cowboys offense.
Tyreek Hill was the most efficient wide receiver in the league last season, posting 23.8 PPR points per game, just slightly ahead of Lamb. Hill is entering his ninth season in the league at 30 years old, however, he’s set and tied his career-high in targets (167) in each of the past two seasons. He’s also posted the two best yardage totals and receiving grades in his career in back-to-back seasons with the Dolphins, showing no signs of slowing down, and keeping him locked in as an elite fantasy option.
Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown all have an argument to be WR3 in rankings this season, and considering this top tier as a whole is as close as it is, fantasy managers can approach them however they want. There is easily 150-plus target potential for everyone in this top tier and they all have the talent to make the most out of those targets in 2024 as the very best at their position. Jefferson, arguably, has the biggest question at quarterback of this group with rookie J.J. McCarthy now out for the season and Sam Darnold stepping in as the new starter, but considering his status as one of the best wide receivers in the league, if not the best, we can still project him as a top-five option again this year.
Tier 2 also consists of a small group of wide receivers who could all push for a WR1 overall finish this season based on the number of projected targets alone. Between A.J. Brown and Davante Adams, fantasy managers will have two reliable and consistent veteran wide receivers who have finished as top-12 wide receivers in each of the past two seasons. Brown finished inside the top-five in each, and Adams finished top-three in each of the three seasons prior to last (WR11).
Puka Nacua emerged as a high-end option in his rookie season last year and is a strong bet to keep that elite production going once again in 2024, even if there is some slight regression expected. Nacua’s 0.26 targets per route run was among the best at his position last year, as was his 2.59 yards per route run (eighth). He has taken over the WR1 role from 2021 fantasy WR1 Cooper Kupp in this Rams offense, and there’s no looking back now.
Garrett Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. are the biggest, and riskiest, projections inside the top-10 wide receiver rankings. For Wilson, his talent is undeniable, but he’s been plagued with quarterback issues since entering the league. Last season, he ranked fourth in total targets (163) with only 67.5% of those targets being deemed catchable, which ranked 111th at his position. While Aaron Rodgers is a significant upgrade at quarterback for Wilson, there is still risk involved with Rodgers at 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles. Assuming health for Rodgers, Wilson has that top-10 wide receiver potential, as long as fantasy managers are able to live with the risk at quarterback.
Harrison is a relative unknown coming in as a rookie in the NFL, but as one of the best wide receiver prospects in recent years while being tied to an above-average quarterback in Kyler Murray, he should have no trouble hitting the ground running in Year 1. Suppose Harrison is what most fantasy managers believe him to be. In that case, 150 targets are within his realm of possibilities as a rookie, which projects him among the top 12 fantasy options at his position.
Chris Olave is a personal darkhorse WR1 favorite, checking almost every box necessary to reach that mark in 2024. As a former 12th overall pick, Olave’s talent has shined already in his NFL career, finishing inside the top-24 PPR wide receivers in each of his NFL seasons. In Year 2, Olave finished seventh at his position in yards per route run (2.42) and receiving grade versus man coverage (89.1), already establishing himself among the elite with a real shot at a Year 3 leap hence his top-12 ranking.
The biggest projection in this range is Drake London, who did not crack the top-24 PPR wide receivers last season but does get a significant upgrade at quarterback with Kirk Cousins coming in and a potentially more wide receiver-friendly offense under Raheem Morris. London is a talented young wide receiver who has yet to crack 11.0 PPR points per game through his first two years in the league despite ranking 15th among qualifying wide receivers in receiving grade (86.1) over that span. The upgrade at quarterback should be just what London needs to push for, not just a top-24 PPR finish for the first time in his career, but a top-12 finish right there for the taking as well.
Despite being 31 years old when the season kicks off, Mike Evans has shown no signs of decline and is coming off one of his most productive seasons ever. He delivered his highest receiving yard total (1,255) since 2018 along with his best receiving grade (83.2) since 2019. Evans also dominated against single coverage, which also highlights his lack of decline, as he posted a 93.3 receiving grade and 5.77 yards per route run that both ranked top-five at his position. He’s finished as a top-12 PPR wide receiver in back-to-back seasons with two different quarterbacks, and his chemistry with Baker Mayfield puts him back in that contention for another season after commanding 127 targets last season — also his best mark since 2018.
Most of this group either has to replicate what they did last season or increase their points per game totals slightly to sneak inside the top 12 at the position in 2024. For those that only need to keep doing what they’ve been doing, along with Evans, it’s Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, Nico Collins, DJ Moore, Deebo Samuel, D.K. Metcalf and DeVonta Smith, who were all within range of that top 12 in points per game last season. Moore now has more target competition with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining the team, but he’s still (slightly) the best bet to lead the team. Collins now has Stefon Diggs as his primary target competition, but thanks to a high-powered passing offense led by C.J. Stroud, he should maintain his strong level of play from last season, even with Diggs and Tank Dell likely to factor in.
Jaylen Waddle, much like Evans, is a player in this tier that I will be higher on than consensus. After diving into his production last season, he stands out as a clear candidate for arguably his best season yet. Waddle ran just 385 routes (67th among wide receivers) last season due to injury yet produced a top-12 mark in fantasy points per route run (0.52), tied with Justin Jefferson and Keenan Allen. He also posted the best yards per route run (2.63), receiving grade (90.9), and offensive grade (90.7) marks of his career — all of which were top-10 at his position. Even Waddle’s 0.33 PPR points per snap ranked among the top 10 at his position, highlighting more of his top-10 potential as another darkhorse for WR1 in 2024.
The majority of this tier consists of either team’s second-best receiving option, or the top option on a team with slightly less potential as the WR1s ahead of them due to their offenses or quarterback play. The top options where quarterback play likely hurts their overall potential the most include Malik Nabers, Amari Cooper and George Pickens. All three players come into this season with quarterbacks who graded outside of the top 20 at their position in 2023.
A Rashee Rice suspension seems unlikely to be handed down in time to affect him for the 2024 season. With the assumption that he dodges that punishment, his current ADP stands out as a good value in drafts right now, as he’s being drafted as WR31 on Sleeper. Rice stands to once again be the Kansas City Chiefs WR1, just as he was in 2023, when he tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (eight) while finishing behind only Travis Kelce in targets (131), receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,200) through the playoffs despite not earning a full-time role until the latter half of the year.
The best second wide receivers in the league exist in this tier with DeVonta Smith, Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins and Cooper Kupp. Tank Dell can also be included here, more likely as the third option on his team, but on a team that was one of the best passing offenses in the league last season and should allow him to lead the team in receiving production on any given week as a result.
There are still some really strong candidates to outperform their ranking within this fifth tier, and it speaks to the strength and depth of the position, as any player in this tier who isn’t able to accomplish double-digit fantasy points per game this season could be considered a disappointment.
Several young wide receivers will have the chance to ascend to the next level this season, including Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Ladd McConkey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rome Odunze and Xavier Worthy. The rookies, McConkey, Odunze and Worthy, are naturally going to be more difficult projections without NFL experience, but as highly-drafted wide receivers with good quarterbacks, they offer a lot of upside if they can emerge as consistent fixtures in their respective offenses on a weekly basis.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is set up for a potential breakout season after flashing his potential in Year 1, earning 90 targets on the year and posting the eighth-most receiving yards among rookie wide receivers (628) despite recording the second-lowest ADoT (6.4 yards) of the group. A new-look offense that will ideally utilize Smith-Njigba as more of an all-around wide receive should help him take over the WR2 role in Seattle’s offense over an aging Tyler Lockett.
This is the tier where the options feel a lot less safe for fantasy, but there is a world where upside comes to fruition and any one or more of these players can greatly outperform their current stock in these rankings.
Keon Coleman, Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell and Luke McCaffrey are the lone rookies in this tier as all have a lot of upside but are less-developed wide receivers coming out of college who are not guaranteed to hit the ground running in the NFL. Taking a shot on one of them is fine, but understanding that there is likely to be a lot more boom/bust with their game in Year 1.
Plenty of rookies within this tier can deliver surprise production in Year 1 of their NFL careers due to weaker depth charts that could allow them to emerge this season. Xavier Legette, Jalen McMillan and Roman Wilson stand out as potential rookie sleepers who either have the draft capital or impressive college profiles that can translate quickly to the NFL.
Outside of the rookies, some personal favorites in this tier, as in players who are ranked higher here versus consensus, include Wan’Dale Robinson, Demarcus Robinson and Kendrick Bourne. Each of these three players posted at least 7.5 PPR points per game last season, earned at least a 19% target rate and delivered over 1.10 yards per route run, which no other player in this tier was able to accomplish. They at least offer some reliability as players who should have consistent roles in their respective offenses, even if not with overly exciting ceilings.
More really deep sleepers round out the top 100 wide receivers, with interesting names like Quentin Johnston standing out as a second-year first-round wide receiver who has very quickly lost the faith of the football community. Johnston could always turn things around in Year 2 and begin to live up to his first-round draft capital, but his rookie season was far from encouraging.
Focusing on players who could emerge as starters on high-end passing offenses like the Cincinnati Bengals or Miami Dolphins, wide receivers Andrei Iosivas or Odell Beckham Jr. Jermaine Burton make them the most optimal targets in this range, but their target competition is also elite, which pushes them this far down the rankings.
