Sean Barnard gives his top DraftKings DFS value plays for this week’s main DraftKings slate.
While our appetites have been whet with back-to-back primetime games on Thursday and Friday night, nothing is quite like a full football Sunday. With seven hours of commercial-free football hopefully on the horizon for all of us- the NFL season has now arrived.
The thousands of hours spent listening to offseason podcasts, overanalyzing clips from training camp, or crunching numbers are finally in the rearview mirror. Each of our offseason takes and predictions will be confirmed or crumble and the 2024 season picture will begin to be painted.
There will be plenty of commitments made in the season-long fantasy football leagues. But the Daily Fantasy Sports lineups give a unique chance to take a new attempt every week. With the slate clean to open the season, here are a few players at each position primed to have a strong opening week performance. This article is broken down by position with an outlook on some of the top players as well as value plays.
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It was not long ago that Kyler Murray was in the conversation for one of the best fantasy football quarterbacks across the entire NFL. During the 2022 season, Murray finished as the 4th highest-scoring quarterback in DraftKings scoring by producing 25.4 points per game. After suffering a torn ACL in 2021, Murray made his return to the field for the final eight games of last season to kick off the rust. He now had a full offseason to train and the Cardinals also drafted Marvin Harrison Jr with the 4th overall pick, who has a chance to immediately establish himself as the best weapon Murray has been paired with.
Arizona has a difficult task in the first game as they will play the Buffalo Bills on the road. The Bills are considered 6.5-point favorites in the matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook which indicates this will be a difficult game for the Cardinals to open up. Expect Buffalo to be in the driver’s seat of the matchup and Arizona to be playing from behind. This will keep the ball in Murray’s hands even more often. Look for Murray to provide the rest of the NFL with a reminder of what a talent he is and put forth a strong opening week statistical performance.
This year’s number one overall pick will begin his NFL career facing off against the Tennessee Titans with the home crowd behind him. While there rightfully should be some concern for the rookie’s growing pains, Caleb Williams walks into one of the best situations a number one pick has in recent memory. Pair this with the high-level talent he has already flashed to be, and it is reasonable to have expectations of a successful week one DFS performance.
Coming off a 6-11 season in which they fired head coach Mike Vrabel, there is not a great deal of optimism in Tennessee. The Titans ranked 31st in turnovers forced, 16th in defensive scoring, and 18th in yards allowed. Williams has the arm talent and weapons to manipulate this and make a day-one impact. Look for him to shine statistically and end up one of the top DFS scorers in the opening week.
In the two seasons that he has been in the NFL, Kenneth Walker has rushed for 1955 yards. This is the 7th-most of all NFL running backs over this period. Walker has quietly been a workhorse logging over 215 carries in each season and recording 15+ carries in 16 games. He will enter this season as the expected featured back for the Seahawks and will look to build after being a top-24 fantasy running back in both seasons of his career.
The Seattle Seahawks are set to face off with the Denver Broncos in their opening-week matchup. With rookie Bo Nix under center for the Broncos, this will be a transition year. Seattle enters the matchup as six-point favorites and should have the inside track on getting the win. Expect this to result in some time looking to wind down the clock and for more carries to come Walker’s way. There will be a healthy workload on his plate, and he will be able to outperform this DraftKings DFS pricepoint as a result.
Nick Chubb is set to begin the season on the Physically Unable to Perform List (PUP) as he recovers from his severe knee injury. This opens the door for Jerome Ford to make a strong impact as he will open as the top running back on the depth chart. Ford showed some promise last season in Chubb’s absence, tallying 813 yards on the year overall. The Alabama and Cincinnati product received double-digit carries in 11 games last season and should be expected this type of workload in the opening week. Ford also recorded at least one reception in all but one game last season. The third-year running back tallied nine total touchdowns last season with five coming through the air.
The Browns will face off with the Dallas Cowboys in the opening week. Last season they allowed the 16th most rushing yards per game and also were 26th in overall score percentage. Cleveland is expected to be in the running for the best defense in the league and should have plenty of touches with the ball. Deshaun Watson’s outlook remains uncertain for Cleveland to build a presence on the ground and for Jerome Ford to lead the charge.
There has not been nearly enough buzz surrounding Ray Davis leading into the season opener. The rookie falls second on the depth chart behind James Cook but will play a role in the offense from the opening week. Davis had an impressive training camp and is expected to play a role in the passing game. The Bills enter week one set to face off with the Arizona Cardinals. This is expected to be a high-scoring matchup with plenty of points to go around. Arizona also struggled greatly stopping running backs in the passing game last year. In half-point PPR leagues, the Cardinals gave up the most points to running backs last year.
Davis likely will not be capable of outperforming some of the top-dollar running backs. But when looking to get the best bang for your buck, this is a great value for a player that could see double-digit touches.
The Arizona Cardinals are one of the more intriguing teams entering this season as they look to take a massive leap forward. Marvin Harrison Jr is a significant reason why there should be the belief. The Ohio State product enters the season as arguably the most NFL-ready player in the draft class and will provide Kyler Murray with a true game-changing weapon. He tallied over 1200 yards receiving yards in each of the last two seasons in college and found the end zone 14 times in both seasons.
Look for Arizona to use the rookie early and often. Kyler Murray will be looking to rebuild his NFL reputation and carry the Cardinals along with him. While this is a fairly steep price tag to pay, Harrison Jr has a real chance at being among the receiving leaders in the entire NFL right from the opening week. With plenty of scoring expected and Harrison Jr to be in line for plenty of targets, he is a player worth building your DFS lineup around.
It was not long ago that you could not mention the top wide receivers in the NFL without bringing up DeAndre Hopkins. The veteran has eclipsed 1000 yards receiving seven times in his career- including the 1057 he tallied last year. There are not high expectations for the Titans this year largely due to the concern at quarterback with Will Levis. The second-year quarterback tallied 11 turnovers across his nine starts last year. However, the organization will allow him to play through his mistakes and live with the results. This is especially the case with the new coaching staff taking over.
It should be noted that it was recently revealed Hopkins is dealing with an MCL tear he suffered back in July. The five-time Pro Bowl wide receiver is officially listed as questionable and recently spoke about how he will just have to play through the pain. While this isn’t ideal, if Hopkins is out there he should be expected to produce.
His Tennessee teammate Calvin Ridley comes in with a $5,800 price point for the opening week. After signing with the team in the offseason, expectations are high. However, Hopkins is the more talented wide receiver and the more significant red zone threat. Hopkins also has a season of experience playing next to Levis at this point. The injury concerns prevent me from being all-in on his impact, but this price point feels far too low for Hopkins.
The Los Angeles Chargers will enter a new era of football this season with Jim Harbaugh taking control as head coach. The veteran head coach and reigning college football National Champion has historically leaned primarily on his rushing attack for success. However, the Chargers will still need to have some sort of passing attack and Palmer is in line to lead the team in targets. Rookie Ladd McConkey and second-year Quentin Johnson, who is coming off an extremely disappointing rookie season, will be his only competition.
Palmer has spent all three seasons of his career with the Chargers playing alongside Justin Herbert. During this stretch, he has tallied 143 receptions for 1703 yards and nine touchdowns. He may not be the most talented receiver available, but expect Palmer to get far more targets than his price point indicates and for him to emerge as the Chargers’ top receiving option.
The Dallas Cowboys have plenty to prove this season. Dak Prescott remains in contract limbo and CeeDee Lamb recently settled his holdout. Prescott will be motivated to put forth as much production as possible this year to get the best leverage point with the organization. For this to occur, he will need some receivers to step up and produce.
Look no further than Jake Ferguson as a player in the position to step up. The third-year tight end is coming off a season in which he tallied 71 receptions for 761 yards and five touchdowns- qualifying for his first Pro Bowl. Outside of Lamb, the Cowboys are lacking in offensive weapons. Ferguson has a real chance to climb to second in the pecking order of production and cement his place among the top tight ends in the sport. Take advantage of this early and get him in your DFS lineup before the price grows even further.
The Cowboys will also be facing off against the Browns in the opening week. Headlined by their strong pass rush, Cleveland is among the most fearsome defenses in the NFL. Expect Dallas to counter this by using Ferguson as a safety release around the line of scrimmage to get the ball in his hands often.
There are high expectations for Brock Bowers after he was selected with the 13th overall pick in the most recent NFL Draft. The Georgia product is expected to be a weapon for the Las Vegas Raiders and has gone through workouts in several different positions. Bowers has proven his ability as a pass-catcher and also received a handful of carries on the ground each season in college.
How he is utilized is to be determined, but Bowers will be among Las Vegas’ most dynamic weapons. Look for the Raiders to search for the best way to unlock him by putting the ball in his hands often and allowing him to do what he does best. The Raiders will be facing a Chargers defense which ranked 30th in passing yards allowed and 24th in passing touchdowns allowed last season. Bowers has a great matchup to get his NFL career started on the right foot and exceed his DFS price point.
Sometimes a selection is less about your belief in the team and more about the concerns in the team they are facing. This is the case with this Chicago Bears defense. Facing off against the Tennessee Titans, Chicago has a great chance to get off on the right foot. Last season they ranked 20th in scoring defense, but did force the 5th most turnovers in the NFL and ranked 3rd in turnover percentage. On the positive side, Chicago did play better at home and did not allow more than 19 points to an opponent from Week 6 on. They will be facing off against youthful quarterback Will Levis who tallied four interceptions and seven fumbles across his nine starts last season. Expect Chicago to jump out to a lead, forcing the Titans to play from behind, and for Levis to turn the ball over in this matchup.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
