If you think of busts as holding bottom-out potential, then you’re probably shocked to see Josh Allen here. Barring injury, he’s almost guaranteed to post some of the strongest stats at the position.

We define busts differently, though. In this case, it’s someone who won’t deliver fantasy value at their draft cost.

Allen will be the first quarterback taken in your draft. He’ll be selected inside of the first two rounds. That’s just too great of a premium to pay at this position, which is far deeper than running back or receiver—the spots that should have your attention in the opening rounds.

It’s also worth noting Allen’s numbers weren’t the same last year. His 15 rushing touchdowns (an absolute outlier based on his track record) salvaged his fantasy season, but his 253.3 passing yards per game and 29 passing touchdowns were both his lowest in four seasons. His 18 interceptions, meanwhile, were the most of his career.

Tack on the fact Buffalo jettisoned its top two receivers this offseason (Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis) and replaced them with a second-round rookie (Keon Coleman) and a fairly forgettable veteran (Curtis Samuel, 22 touchdown catches in 91 career contests), and it’s fair to worry about the state of his passing game.