The Boston Celtics swept the Indiana Pacers and now wait for the winner of the Western Conference in the Finals. The Dallas Mavericks are up 3-0 and, if they win tonight, it will be the first time in NBA history that both conference championship series ended with sweeps. All of the games in this series have been close, but Minnesota has had no answer for Luka Doncic ($13,800 Showdown), especially with the lob threats from the center position. Dereck Lively II has been ruled out, but Daniel Gafford ($6,600) essentially does the same thing. There may be a sliver of optimism when Dwight Powell ($2,200) is out on the floor. On the other side, Dallas has packed the paint, limiting driving lanes for Anthony Edwards ($11,600) while Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,200) has struggled mightily. I think the floodgates open and we see history tonight.
DraftKings Sportsbook has DAL -2 over MIN at home. The total is 210.5. Doncic, Mike Conley ($7,000) and Maxi Kleber ($2,000) are questionable. Keep track of injury updates at DK Live.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (DAL vs MIN)
Daniel Gafford ($9,900 CP): Lively is out so Gafford could see an uptick in playing time. During these playoffs, the center minutes have been split down the middle, with a slight nod in favor of Lively by a few minutes. In Game 3, Lively only played nine minutes, so Gafford played 29 minutes. I think there’s a good chance he gets around 30 minutes tonight. Since joining Dallas, Gafford has averaged 1.17 DKFP per minute. Lively missed the last eight games of the regular season. Gafford played in seven of those contests. He played over 25 minutes in only three of those contests but he had some massive games. He went for 10 points, 15 rebounds, five assists and three blocks in 31 minutes against the Warriors, good for 42.75 DKFP. Two games later, he put up 26 points, seven rebounds, an assist, a steal and two blocks in 25 minutes against Charlotte. That was good for 42.3 DKFP. Minnesota has had no answers for the Doncic pick and roll, so Gafford should get plenty of easy oops. He should grab plenty of rebounds and get his block on as well. There’s upside and the price allows for a more enticing roster construction.
Luka Doncic ($20,700 CP): Doncic has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. He is the only one with the ability to put up a “have-to-have-it” score. There’s a good chance that he triple-doubles and Minnesota has had no answers guarding him. He’s been slicing and dicing every look on the perimeter and the pick-and-roll action has been decimating the drop coverage defense of Minnesota. He’s very expensive, but viable lineups are possible if utilizing one cheapie.
Kyrie Irving ($9,600): Irving has been consistently fantastic in this series. He’s played 40, 39 and 42 minutes while scoring 30, 20 and 33 points. He grabs some boards and dishes out dimes while garnering a hefty usage rate of 33.3%, 24.9% and 34.5%. He’s gone for 43.25, 37 and 44.25 DKFP in the three games and I expect the Mavericks to hum in this one, with Irving being a big part of the festivities.
Derrick Jones Jr. ($4,600): Jones hasn’t been a great fantasy option in this series, as he’s failed to put up at least 20 DKFP in any game. He’s out there for his defense and he’s played over 33 minutes in every contest. Minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe! On offense, he’s a low-usage player who gets his looks in transition and hanging out in the corner. Minnesota could make some adjustments, funneling more shots to Jones Jr. In the OKC series, he showed that he was more than capable of draining the open J, putting up over 30 DKFP in two of the games.
Naz Reid ($5,200): Reid has produced at least 20 DKFP in each of the last five games, with a high of 34.5 DKFP. While he was playing in the low-20s for much of the playoffs, he’s received 29 and 32 minutes in the two most recent contests. His ability to space the floor has been vital because Dallas has been packing the paint to limit driving lanes. Reid should continue getting good looks.
Rudy Gobert ($8,000): Gobert played 29 minutes and put up 19 DKFP in Game 3. With Minnesota on the brink of elimination, there could be adjustments made. One could be fewer minutes for Gobert, which could provide some defensive versatility. Gobert is primarily a drop defender, but Doncic has been slicing and dicing that defense due to the lob threat of the centers. Having Gobert switch out to Doncic on the perimeter has proven problematic. There’s a chance that Gobert goes back to playing 37 minutes again, but the risk/reward doesn’t seem favorable, especially since there’s limited ceiling at this price.
I think the floodgates open up, with the result being Timberwolves being washed down into the sunset.
Final Score: Mavericks 114, Timberwolves 103
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (DAL vs MIN)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mbarner51) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
