This series between the Timberwolves and Nuggets has been akin to a heavyweight fight from the golden years of boxing. Denver entered the ring with the belt, experience and guile while Minnesota was a young, inexperienced, but legitimate contender for the throne. The Timberwolves came out of the gates throwing haymakers and connecting, one big blow after another. It looked like the champs were doomed. But the Nuggets took the brunt of the attacks, regrouped and assessed the strategy and weaponry of their opponent. In addition, they let the young, eager Timberwolves essentially punch themselves out of the match, as they had no energy to respond to the counterattacks and adjustments from the champs. Now, Minnesota finds themselves on the brink of elimination, but they are at home for tonight. Can they muster one last flurry to force a Game 7, where anything can happen?
DraftKings Sportsbook has MIN -2.5 over DEN at home. The total is 205. In terms of injuries, Jamal Murray ($9,600) and Mike Conley ($7,200) are questionable. Keep track of injury updates at DK Live.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Shootaround Special [$100K to 1st] (MIN vs DEN)
Anthony Edwards ($17,400 CP): Jokic has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate, but the price is so expensive that it’s difficult making lineups. I will have some with him, though, because he can put up a “have-to-have-it” score. If eschewing Jokic, I will slide down to Edwards, who has had two games under 40 DKFP but has also gone over 60 twice. At home, staring elimination in the face, I expect Edwards to punch elimination in the face. Or at least try to. Edwards may not be able to take down the champs, but I’m confident that he’s not going to go out like a chump. Going with Edwards at CPT also allows me to roster Jokic.
Christian Braun ($6,000 CP): If paying down at Captain in order to fit in more higher-priced players, I will go with Braun. He’s a low-usage player who was only playing in the teens to start the series. But his size, defense, athleticism and ability to make life a little more difficult for Edwards has forced the coaching staff to allocate more minutes for him. Over the last two games, he’s received 25 and 28 minutes, producing 16.8 and 25.3 DKFP.
Nikola Jokic ($14,000): Jokic has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. Always a threat to mess around, he is projected to score the most DKFP by a wide margin. I don’t think you can have a lineup without Jokic in it. The only question is whether to Captain Jokic or not.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400): I often clown KAT for not having enough dawg in him, and I still don’t think he can take a team to the promised land as the lead guy. That said, he is one of the most versatile and skilled players in the league. The things that he can do at his size are replicated by few. He has also shown some things from the mental and emotional side, which gives me more confidence that he won’t go down without a fight. The range of outcomes is wide, as he went for 25.3 DKFP in Game 3, but had 51.5 DKFP in Game 2.
Justin Holiday ($2,800): For value, I’m going with Holiday. Hopefully, he doesn’t go on one, which is well within the range of outcomes. He’s received over 20 minutes just once in this series and put up single-digit DKFP twice. That said, his ability to space the floor has been important against the tentacles of the Timberwolves defense. In three games, he put up 11.8, 18.5 and 14.8 DKFP.
Jamal Murray ($9,600): Minnesota has made life so difficult for Murray in this series. They were hounding him so much in the first two games that Denver had to utilize Jokic and Gordon to bring the ball up. Even when he gets the ball, the defenders have stuck to him like glue and contested most of his shots. Murray is a professional getter of buckets and has shined at times, so it wouldn’t surprise if he gets busy. I just think the probabilities are low, especially since the Timberwolves defense will likely be flying around like a band of banshees tonight.
Minnesota was amazing on defense in the first two games, without Gobert. Once he returned, they were not able to employ the same schemes. I think Minnesota will make adjustments tonight and send this series to a Game 7.
Final Score: Timberwolves 107, Nuggets 104
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Shootaround Special [$100K to 1st] (DEN vs MIN)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mbarner51) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
