Clinging to hope of a Kirk Cousins turnaround, the Atlanta Falcons only started rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. for three games during the 2024 season. Any progress he showed during those three contests should probably be viewed with a small grain of salt since it was a small sample.

Yet still, Pro Football Focus’ Bradley Locker is bullish on what Penix might do during his first full year as Atlanta’s starting quarterback next season. Locker named Penix the Falcons’ top breakout candidate for the 2025 campaign.

“It’s tough not to be encouraged by what Penix showed during his limited starting stint in 2024. Over the last three weeks of the season, Penix’s 84.0 PFF passing grade ranked eighth among qualifiers and his 8.5% big-time throw rate placed third,” Locker wrote. “Beyond that, Penix was responsible for only two turnover-worthy plays on 108 dropbacks.

“With the Falcons retaining a stellar offensive nucleus and a strong offensive line, all the pieces are in place for the Washington product to take off next year.”

In actuality, Penix had three interceptions. But one of them was a clear drop from tight end Kyle Pitts. The play arguably should have been a touchdown, had Pitts made a routine catch and stellar move to the goal line, rather than an interception.

Penix also had three touchdown passes. He posted a completion percentage of just 58.1%, but drops in his small sample perhaps contributed to his completion percentage being lower than it probably should have been. Completion percentage is also typically a stat that young quarterbacks can make significant jumps in during the early years of their careers.

Penix also averaged 7.4 yards per pass and 12.7 yards per completion in five appearances during 2024. Both are impressive statistics from a quarterback in his first few starts.

The 24-year-old should also only get better with a full offseason of preparation where he is receiving all the first-team offensive repetitions. And as Locker mentioned, Pitts, Drake London, Bijan Robinson and the key members of the Atlanta offensive line will all return for 2025.

Atlanta’s biggest offseason question marks are on defense. But with just about all the key pieces of the offense returning, there understandably will be a lot of excited about what Penix will be able to do in 2025.