We’re just over 3 months away until BYU Basketball tips off the regular season versus Central Arkansas November 5. Earlier this month, analytics guru Bart Torvik released his preseason team projections and BYU checked in 28th in the nation (8 in the Big 12). The NCAA Selection Committee announced this summer they have added Torvik’s rankings to the selection committee team sheets, along with other analytic metrics like KenPom and BPI.

Torvik added a preseason projection for top 10 projected contributors, and his projections forecast Dawson Baker as the BYU’s leading scorer with 17.3 ppg. Note that he lists Dawson as a senior, but Dawson is a junior after receiving a medical redshirt.

Preseason projections are what they are, but I would be shocked if those stats look similar to this once we’re into the meat of the season. On Dawson, let me say that I was on the Dawson Baker train before anyone. I’ve had my eye on him since he was at UC Irvine as a potential transfer candidate for BYU. Dawson came into last season as the most accomplished college player on BYU’s roster. He averaged double figures all three seasons at UC Irvine, including his last season when he was All-Conference and averaged 15.3 ppg. Had he been healthy last season, he would have given BYU a big boost as someone that could create his own shot.

Health is one of the big keys here. Dawson played in only 4 games last season after offseason foot surgery didn’t fix his foot. He had another surgery after, and sources tell me that Dawson has been playing with no pain. Two foot surgeries make me a little weary, so I think it may take a full season under his belt until Dawson really gets going. The other big key is the amount of mouths to feed. BYU has a lot of talented guards, and I don’t think Dawson will emerge as the #1 guy out of the bunch. Dawson is a great player and I think he will absolutely have an impact, I just don’t see him going from a 15 ppg guy in the Big West to a 17 ppg player on a Big 12 team with lots of talent.

Other thoughts

• Keba Keita is way too low. I don’t think it will matter too much if he or Fouss starts, but they’ll essentially split the center minutes 50/50. I am very high on Keba with his ability to rim run and protect the basket. He will be great under Kevin Young.
• Egor Demin, Kanon Catchings, Mawot Mag, and even Richie Saunders should outperform those numbers. You can take some away from Dawson and Trevin and add to those guys. Demin and Catchings are likely undervalued in preseason projections since they are freshmen.
• BYU has a lot of mouths to feed. Scholarship players Trey Stewart, Brody Kozlowski, Elijah Crawford, and Khadim Mboup aren’t in the projected top 10.
• Torvik has a “fun stuff” section and projects BYU as a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. His schedule isn’t fully updated as it doesn’t include the San Diego tourney featuring Purdue, NC State, and Ole Miss. BYU still has 3 games to round out the non-conference schedule.